the exact trade im taking for the incoming bitcoin bull run (copy this)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. So today we are getting a very interesting situation here where, you know, Bitcoin is doing a literal V-shaped recovery, and I'm going to break down exactly if there is a trade for today, and if there is a trade, how is it going to look like. And besides that, I'm also going to get into some of the more long-term kind of stuff where I'm just going to talk about like, hey, is the bull run back? If it is, how do we get in? If it isn't, what's likely to happen next? Just kind of talk about that. But yeah, before I get into it, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these daily trade calls that I've been making right here on YouTube for the last year and a half or so, and currently I'm at about a 75% win rate. So hopefully that gives you a bit of a reason to listen to me. And also, I have a second channel where I'm posting daily videos and just talking about tactical trading related stuff. So if you'd like to check that out, feel free to check it out after this video. But for now, let's get into the video. Now we're going to kick things off by saying that the weekly bias so far is bearish, right? Which means that in the event that we get an initial pump above the weekly open, this actually sets us up for a move towards the downside. But the problem is, yes, we did eventually get that move towards the downside, especially like if you take a Look at the one hourly chart right here. Like yeah, you know we we eventually got that move towards the downside, which is kind of what I talked about yesterday. But the problem is today we've gotten a full V shape recovery, and over here we have a bullish one hourly CISC. So right off the get go, I'm going to tell you straight up that chances are today is going to be another no trade day. Like and before you start you know raising your pitchforks and kind of revolting, like this such an important concept that I need to talk about here, which is so many people come into the markets every single day, and just because they feel like they have looked at the charts or they have spent time at the charts, they expect to take a trade. But you You've got to understand one very important distinction. Trading is unlike every other job out there where, you know, for example, if you're working a full-time job, if you work 10 hours for today instead of your usual 8 hours, you expect to get paid more because your output is tied directly to how much input you put in. More hours, more money, right? Obviously, some people are paid more based on the, you know, result that they get for their clients, but for the majority of people, we're conditioned to think in a way where the more we do, the more we get out of it. Whether it's fitness, hobbies, or any skill that you're trying to learn, the more effort and the more input you put in, the more output you are likely to get out. Trading is the complete opposite of this, which is what makes trading so hard to understand for most people and why so many people struggle with the mental side of trading. Because at the end of the day, how much money you make as a trader is only proportional, right? It's directly proportional and only proportional to the quality of the trades that you do end up taking. Which means if you spend 10 hours a day taking absolutely trash garbage trades, guess what? You're going to spend 10 hours actively losing money. But If you spend 10 hours waiting to only take one trade, and that trade happens to be an A+ setup, and you end up making a lot of money from that, like, sure, if you think of it from an hourly rate, like, yeah, you only won one trade out of it. But that's already thinking about the problem from a completely wrong approach. And you have to make that mindset shift from like, okay, how many hours do I want to put into trading? Or like, how many trades do I want to take? To how do I ensure that every single trade that I take is only an A+ trade? And if you can do that, I promise you, You're going to be like in the top 0.1% of traders out there, and you're going to be making some mad cash. Boring? You're going to be doing nothing most of the time, but that's also perfectly fine because the goals, or rather the requirements to make money from trading, is completely different from every other kind of job in the rest of the world. And so I know it's not easy to make this mindset shift, but if you would like trading to become a long-term thing that you do that actively generates you money consistently, then it's a mindset shift you eventually need to make. But with that out of the way, the reason why today is looking like a no-trade day is, as I've already mentioned, right? In terms of the overall weekly bias, we're looking for a move towards the downside. If we take a look at the daily chart, because we closed bearish yesterday, we're supposed to look for a short today. Problem is, the moment we go into the lower time frames, we can see that we already get a bullish CSD. Now, is there a potential that price could just be going for this liquidity sweep right here, where you sweep it out and you go for an instant reversal and price dumps? So basically like a V-shaped recovery followed by another dump. Yeah, of course it's possible, but is that likely? Well, I wouldn't count on it. If it happens though, great, like that, that will be the trade for today. But unless it happens where you sweep out this high and you aggressively go towards the downside, like today is just a day where I'm just literally going to stay out. And I know that London has already swept above the Asia highs, and this means that with a bearish daily bias so far, this— as long as you get a CIST, like a convincing CIST, and in this case on the 5-minute chart I would say like $83,600, like this would be probably the only second kind of trade that I would even consider. But again, you got to remember that in terms of the 1-hourly so far, you have a bullish CSD, which means if you do jump into this trade, it is like go half risk at most. Now, one of the interesting things that I would like you to understand with the statement that I just made is that I'm not saying that today is completely going to be a no-trade day. It's just like based on everything that I've discussed so far, yes, it is still possible that you are going to win the trade, and there is— it is still possible that you're going to get quality trades, but it's less likely to happen. And even when you do get into the trade, it's less likely that that you are going to win it because of the fact that in terms of the 1-hour chart, for example, you are already incredibly bullish. But in terms of the 5-minute, you're supposed to be looking for shorts. And because you are bullish, guess what? When you return back into this area right here, it's going to be very likely to become some sort of level of support, which if the risk-reward kind of lines up, then yeah, perfectly fine. You can just kind of jump into a trade and take your profit over there. But the reality of it is if you do jump into this trade, like for example on this London manipulation setup that we can we're eyeing right now. Once you get the CSD, price retraces back into it. And if you take your profit here and you place your stop loss above here, guess what? You're only getting a 0.95 risk-to-reward ratio, which is far below the minimum level for me of 2:1 risk-to-reward ratio. And at which case, like, for it to be 2:1, I would need to target all the way down here, which again, this is a support level and this is where my target needs to be. Now, sure, you can argue I can potentially make my stop loss shorter, at which case you are now justifying a trade, right? In order to force this trade to come to fruition, you are now rationalizing and moving your stop loss and moving your target to make it work. Instead of actually just looking at the trade setup objectively for what it is and taking the trade. So again, I'm not saying it's impossible. If you do decide to just still jump into a trade even though I've spent 5 minutes telling you, you know, why you shouldn't, then yeah, this will be the setup that I look for, right? Just some sort of a sweep above the highs or just some sort of breakdown during the London session. Both of these would give you a manipulation setup where basically Asia's accumulation, London or New York morning sweeps above the Asia high, right? Take out all of the liquidity up here, And then followed by a distribution towards the downside. That'll be the only possible scenario that I look for. And in terms of taking profit, like, if you guys get a 2:1 risk-to-reward trade for today, like you already said, don't aim for too much because, like, in terms of the lower timeframes, or rather the middle timeframe, you're, you know, the trend, the direction of the trend has already started to shift. So I wouldn't count on an aggressive dump towards the downside. Now again, I'm not saying that it is impossible for us to just kind of go for a full reversal and for price to dump heavily for today. I'm just saying That outcome is not likely. And another thing that will help you massively when it comes to success in trading can also be boiled down to another sentence, which is, on any given situation, right, there's always the higher probability outcome and the lower probability outcome, right? For example, let's say there is a 70/30 chance today that we kind of retrace and we continue higher instead of going lower, right? Let's say the odds of this is 70/30. I want you to take a moment to think, like, should you be taking or aiming to take the 70% action over the 30% action? Like, which one should you take over the course of the long run in order to be successful at trading? Well, Obviously, it's good, just a higher probability outcome, right? Like, the more you can take these higher probability outcomes and maintain that every single day, day in, day out, is how you become successful at trading. After all, I don't just magically stumble upon a 75% win rate across like 200+ trades after publicly documenting and coming on to YouTube making these daily videos every single day. Like, I don't stumble onto that result by magic. It's a result of understanding the mental models required to think about trading in a way that is going to promote success. For yourself in trading. Now, this is one of the many mental models that I hammer home really hard within our flagship program, where you get to learn this entire trading system right here and have us be alongside you one-on-one so that we can help you implement this trading system and make sure you're doing it right, so that you can go from where you are right now to consistently profitable within the next 90 days. And just as a fun fact, amongst all of the students who have worked with us, 70% of them have managed to get funded or basically just achieve the result that we have promised in the headline of the page, which is something no other trading program can claim, but we can because the system works. And also we exclusively work with people very, very closely, which means this is not scalable. We cannot take on a lot of people every month, but the people that work with us get some insane results. If this sounds interesting to you, click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, just to go back into what I was going to mention at the start of the video, which is kind of like the long-term kind of outcomes, right? And I'm going to boil down my entire statements by saying there is one possible kind of scenario here that you manage to kind of still take advantage of of a possible bull kind of movement, but also protect the downside in the event that you happen to be wrong. And that is going to be revolving around this order block right here on the weekly chart. When you return back into this order block right here, as long as you are kind of buying into spot at the start of the order block and you place your stop loss at the end of the order block, this is going to give you a leeway of like around, you know what, 6%, which is a completely fair price to pay. But then it gives you a potential reward of— what is this? Even if we just go back to the previous high, that's like close to 60%, right? So it's a 10:1 risk-to-reward ratio, which is more than worth it. Now the only reason why I'm suggesting this is because in terms of the weekly chart, if you can see right here, we've already gotten a CSD, which means that the trend has already started to shift. It's not a full confirmation yet that the trend has shifted, but at least the first signs are there. So basically this allows you to still position yourselves to capture a move but without losing too much in the event that you are wrong. Right now everyone's waiting for the retest, and it's pretty clear as well that Bitcoin is eventually going to retest. In fact, even right here where price is currently, you can already get into it Like, it would just make your stop loss a little bit wider. Like, it'll turn it into like, what, 10%? It will shrink your risk-to-reward ratio. But just retesting this previous candle body high over here is already a valid level, right? So entry here, stop loss there. And I still, I feel like that's still fair because you're still getting like a 1:5, 1:6 kind of reward ratio. But also, the other reason why I'm even suggesting this in the first place has to do with, and I know this is not going to sound like the absolute highest probability kind of signals that we can use, but if we take a look at every single major bear market, Out there, we can see that from the high of the bull run to the low of the bull run, it usually takes anywhere between 12— 10 to 12 months, right? And since the last high that was formed on October 6th, 2025, we— to the low of the bear market currently, that happened in around the period of 10 months, or 9 months to be precise. At the start of October, so basically the end of September, right? That was when you got the high, and then you got the bottom at June. So yeah, that's literally 9 months. So it's already like, you know, on par with the rest of the, you know, bear and bull runs. And for the bottom to be in and for us to start getting a sign of reversal, which we've seen in the start of every single bull run from before, where for example over here is when you get the CSD. From this point right here, this is your kind of accumulation kind of chance. This is where we are at, and then the rest is history, right? So just to put into perspective how we would enter this back then, and by the way, I even called this back in 2023, so kudos to anyone that was following me on this channel right here. And the playbook was super simple, right? Even if we just got into Bitcoin, this would've been like what, like a 25% risk-to-reward ratio, but we would've potentially stood to gain 8x out of this. And that was super straightforward. Right now I think we're in a similar situation, but that is not to disregard the fact that currently in terms of the macro, we have basically everything going against us right now where like the bond yields are at absolutely terrible rates. The US is going through some mad inflation. Interest rates are likely going to go up because of this. And Like the war is not going to end anytime soon, which means inflation is going to continue to remain high, interest rates, blah blah blah, right? At the moment, the macroeconomic situation could not be worse for a risk asset like Bitcoin. And so that would be like a very tangible risk factor here to take into consideration. Because something people don't really think about in terms of the previous bull runs is that we had amazing macroeconomic conditions where money, like to borrow money, was basically free, right? Interest rates were zero, and the market was just recovering from the 2008 financial crisis. And for the next like 10 to 12 years, the market literally just went straight up. Those were the conditions that every single bull run in the past has been operating in. It's also the reason why in 2024, we didn't really see like a proper, like quote unquote proper bull run, because the macroeconomic situation just meant that there was not a lot of liquidity to go around. And then you have so many new coins that were being, you know, kind of created, so many new projects that were started and founded over the last few years means that now you have like 10 times to 100 times more buckets To fill, but not as much water to go around. That's the situation that we're operating in at the moment, which is why I am prescribing this setup. Like this is what I'm personally doing, and in the event that we are wrong again, we don't really stand to lose much. And in the event that we are right, we stand to gain a lot. These are the trades that or rather these are the bets that you ideally want to be making. They're not going to come around very often, but when they do, these are the types of bets that you want to be taking because these are what is known as asymmetric bets where you don't stand a chance to lose a lot, but you gain the chance. Like you have the potential to make a lot more than what. you stand to lose. And if you can just exclusively take these asymmetric bets, now they don't come around very often, but when they do, and if you are able to take advantage of them, this is like your recipe for success in life or in trading or anything for that matter. And by the way, this is gonna sound like a shameless plug, but honestly, if you join a program that works and that gets you the result that you are looking for when it comes to trading, then you're not really standing to lose anything in terms of money because like we have a full guarantee where if you put in the work and you don't achieve the result, we're gonna give you your full money back. But you stand to gain a lot in upside. Well, a lot in potential upside. If you'd like to consider it, first link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'll see you guys in tomorrow's video. Ciao ciao.