the BEST bitcoin trade for today (take this!)

What's good, guys? The editor is currently on a break because he has to attend a wedding, so I'm just recording this loom. Wanted to get something out to you guys and didn't want to miss an upload. So yeah, it's going to be more raw. There's not going to be any editing when it comes to this, but hopefully, um, well, at the end of the day, the alpha is alpha, which leads me to my— which leads me to what I was about to say, which is I'm going to break down the exact trade I'm going to be looking at for Bitcoin today. No fuss, no BS. And before I get into it, if you're new here, Welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of the trades that I've been calling right here on YouTube, and currently I'm at about a 75% win rate across the last 250 trades or so over the last 2 years. So hopefully that gives you a bit of a reason to listen to me because I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. But with that out of the way though, uh, let's get into the video for— well, let's get into the trade for today, and we're going to start things off with the daily time frame, which is currently pointing towards the downside. Now I understand in terms of the weekly chart at the moment, you know, we can make an argument that, hey, the bull market's back and whatever, and price is actually— you're just coming for a retrace and eventually, you know, we're going to go to the upside. I'm going to make a video on that soon just to give you my take and breaking down like, hey, this is like— these are the arguments for the bull run coming back and these are the arguments against the bull run coming back. Either way, if you are looking to like a TL;DR, right? If you are looking to get into some swing trades, I believe that this entire block right here where price currently is is a good area to you kind of position yourselves into some swings. Like just in case the bull run comes back, you are not really going to like just in case the bull run comes back, right? You're going to be well positioned for you to take advantage of a big pump. But in the event that you end up being wrong that the bull run is back, then this area right here actually gives you a really good risk to reward ratio because you are not losing more than. You know, even at the highest point, you're not losing more than 10%, right? A 10% stop loss for, you know, potentially 100-200% return. And obviously, this is just applying to Bitcoin, but I feel like that is a pretty good risk-to-reward ratio. And this just allows you to kind of still get exposure without losing too much in the event that you are wrong. Obviously, when it comes to, you know, and it's never easy when it comes to predicting when the bull run is back. Like, even if you were to look at, you know, the 2021 bull run and The 2024 bull run, it wasn't particularly easy to be in the moment and oh yeah, yeah, we definitely have the reversal. Although back in you know there were definitely signs and I definitely called these on the channel back then, and not only in 2023 but also back in 2021. But like the key thing here is this time around is a little bit different, right? This we had undeniable confirmations that yeah, the bull run is back. For that to also be met for this time around. We need to go above 93,500, and at the moment that hasn't happened yet. So this is still an early sign, hence why I'm giving you a suggestion that allows you to kind of hedge your risks in the event that you know this ends up being you know way too early and you are wrong. Well, guess what? You're not going to lose much here. But that's in regards to swing trading. Let's get into the actual kind of day trading side of things, which is what you guys well, which is what the majority of you guys are actually here for. Feel free to let me know if you want to hear more about like. Your long-term predictions, and if you want me to get into some altcoins that I might be looking for, anything between those lines, like just basically some like more fundamental side of, like more on the fundamental side of things, or like just more on the long-term side of things. Actually knocked my light, that's funny. Um, but yeah, if you guys would love me to get more into that, I'd be happy to share. Just let me know in the comment section below. But for now, I just run under the assumption that most of you here are here for the technical analysis side of things, especially like Intraday technical analysis, so we're going to get into that next. And we're going to start things off with the daily bias being bearish, so we should be looking for your shorts today. And also, I think we've left behind some relatively equal lows from the move yesterday. Which speaking about the move from yesterday, what a pity! Oh, that was such a pity. You know, the funny thing is, you know, the funny thing about the move from yesterday was that I was on a call when I was kind of live trading, and. Even though I called it perfectly, and you know this would have been absolutely spot on, I ended up getting stopped out break even. Sorry, I ended up getting stopped out for a loss before price eventually kind of moved. And the reason why I say it was a pity is because, and this is going to be very important that you guys listen to this: whenever any of the trades that I call goes beyond one R, and especially if you go 1.5 R, like for example yesterday, we were up 1.8 R at some point. Whenever you go above 1 or 1.5, the trade is now at a spot where it makes absolutely no sense for you to potentially still lose money when you're that much kind of up right now. I was on a call yesterday, so I didn't manage to move my stop loss to break even in time, and I will gladly— like, I will publicly just kind of take accountability for that loss. It's my fault. But in the event that you guys ever do, you know, copy any of these trades moving forward, just remember Like, if you go above 1 or 1.5R, that is your cue to start moving your stuff to break even. Okay, but yesterday, uh, ended up getting stopped out, and then, you know, price just did an aggressive expansion. And yeah, perfect call yesterday. Now, did I end up losing money? Yes, but I really do hope that you guys managed to make money. Uh, same thing with the call on Wednesday, right? I think the system is finally coming back to life again, especially after the rough month that we've had in September. Where I think I've had like a 10% win rate across you know the entire month of September. Didn't really call a lot of trades. A lot of the days ended up being no trade days as well. But so far in the first week of October, it seems like we're outperforming September already. So let's hope that the market conditions stay good heading into the rest of you know the month. And usually, usually speaking, Q4 historically speaking for the system tends to be very you know it tends to be good, right? Q4 is when you tend to get a lot of trends and Like this system just seriously outperforms during this time. So if you're new to the channel and if you haven't subscribed already, I highly recommend you do so because last Q4 we made an absolute killing. Like I cannot even get— last October and November were probably like the absolute biggest winning streaks that we were on. And I know that back in the day, or rather back at that time, Bitcoin was literally at all-time highs. But doesn't change the fact that Q4 every year, like 2024, 2023, 2022, even 2021, is when you get like some very beautiful price action. And you guys are definitely going to want to stick around for that. Um, just a humble, humble plug though, if you guys feel like you would rather, you know, just kind of get prepared properly as you head into Q4 and equip yourself with like a profitable proven system so that you're not just missing out on the entire opportunity to make money, then I would highly recommend clicking the first link in the description box below and just checking that out. But humble plug aside, let's get into the trade for today. We already established the fact that we are looking for a bearish daily bias, so we're looking for shorts today. Now, going down into the 1-hourly time frame is when I immediately see a couple of things, or like a— I don't want to say it's a red flag, but in the event that this happens, it would make today's trade a lot harder to navigate. So for now, I'm going to mark out this order block, which is the order block that was formed from yesterday. I'm also going to mark out this current order block that we're at, or rather, rather than marking out the order block, I'm going to draw Draw this line right here. So the reason why this line matters is because if you go above this level right here, it shows you that this is a bullish CSD. Now if you know anything about this system that we trade, is that we exclusively take trades when there are— well, when there is time frame alignment. And time frame alignment simply means that, okay, in terms of the daily bias today, we are looking for downside, right? So daily time frame is pointing down. So we are now coming down into the middle time frame, which is the 1-hourly chart, to look for evidence That we are in fact, you know, pointing towards the downside. Now, in the event that you get a bullish CSD, well, that's you know doesn't exactly sound like downside to me. So what you'll end up with is that the daily time frame is going to be pointing down, the one hourly time frame is going to be pointing up, and who you know who knows what the five minute time frame is going to do later. But ideally, we don't want to see a bullish CSD here. But just because I say that doesn't mean you know technically speaking, right? If we were to be strictly technically speaking, eighty three thousand is actually the level where we don't want to see price close above. So if this happens, it would definitely reduce the probability of the overall trade for today, but it wouldn't be the end of the world, right? It could just be, um, you close above this level, but then you could still argue that, yeah, you're just kind of filling in this bearish order block. You might be retracing deeper into the order block or whatever. Uh, you could also argue that price is just kind of on the way to sweep out this hourly liquidity right here. So you basically get liquidity sweep followed by a dump in price. Like, all of this can still be argued, hence why I am still open, and hence why I'm still keeping this as an option, right? This bearish trade as an option. But just to move into the exact setup that we would be looking for today, it comes down to this line right here, which is at $82,200. Because when you get this line, uh, kind of broken, this will validate this entire block here as a bearish order block, at which point you can look for a retracement followed by a dump from price. Now, the way this is going to be similar is yesterday In fact, we have 2 days in a row now where this exact setup has been, you know, playing out in our favor. Yesterday, you guys recall, price was retracing back into this bearish order block right here. Okay, now as we were retracing into it, I told you guys specifically that we wanted to see a candle close on the 1-hour chart beneath this level right here. Now we did eventually get that at 7:00 AM New York, and then later on we retraced back into it and boom, off you go. Same thing for the day before, actually. So this is the order block right here. The exact trigger that I gave you guys was that we wanted to see a candle close beneath here, price retrace into it, and off you go. Wednesday was a solid win as well. This is also a solid win, and today is looking like the exact same playbook. So you just want to want to look for this sometime between the hours of 7 a.m. to 10 a.m. New York. I would even go so far as to say like 8 to 11, to be honest, given how Bitcoin has been behaving over the last month. It's definitely been behaving a lot more. Like an indices, right? Like like a future chart, like Nasdaq, for example, where majority of the moves are not really happening at the early parts of New York anymore, and it's usually happening you know post eight thirty, post nine thirty. So that's where I would lean you guys towards. And the reason why I can't give you a and the only reason why I couldn't give you like a clearer kind of like oops sorry. So the only reason why I couldn't give you a clearer kind of answer or Just a more refined kind of time frame is timing right here, or rather news. We don't have news today. If we had news, then I could have just told you, all right, do you want to take a trade between the hour before news to the hour after news? But unfortunately, today is not one of those days. So it is what it is. We got to make do with what we have. But just to get back to the trade, in the event that price ends up closing above and you get into you know eight to eleven a.m. and price just keeps making higher highs and higher lows, and order flow doesn't seem to be changing. Guess what? It's just going to end up being a no-trade day. And you know what, that's also perfectly fair because you got to remember today is Friday. And historically speaking, I can tell you from like data that even though I have a pretty decent win rate, the majority of my losses do come usually on Mondays and Fridays. And what I often see on these days is that just because like we'll oftentimes have price action, you know, aligning really beautifully where, you know, in terms of price action, everything seems to You know, looks solid. But when we take the trade, for one reason or another, price just seems to find a way to stop us out. Now, I cannot chalk that up to anything other than the fact that Monday is the first day of the week, and, you know, a lot of the price action is still kind of setting up. Obviously, you've got a bunch of weekend orders that are just flooding in all on the same day. And it was Friday, right? It's the end of the week, and, you know, these smart money traders and these institutions and market makers or whatever, they are looking to deliver price in a way where it makes the weekly candle close kind of make sense, right? Obviously, this is all sounding like a conspiracy theory at this point, but data don't lie. I have been losing a lot more trades on Fridays compared to, you know, days like Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday. But still, if in the event that we do get this kind of setup right here, this is still absolutely valid. But I just wanted— like, the only reason why I brought that up earlier is that, you know, just to be a little bit more cautious, right? If today ends up being a no-trade day, so be it. That's perfectly fine. But yeah, feel free to follow me on X if you want to just follow along all of my live trades. It's not gated behind some signals groups or whatever. And if you'd like to join a program where 70% of the people that have joined the program ended up getting funded for like $100,000 or more, which is a success rate, by the way, that is completely unheard of in the industry. And the reason, the only reasons why we are able to achieve this is A, we care deeply about student success. We don't take on many people per month, and the people we take on, we work very seriously with them, basically on a one-on-one basis. And secondly, like, yeah, the system just works. Sure, there are rough months every now and then. It's a perfectly normal part of all trading. But for the most part, I've proven that it's super consistent and it works for multiple years. It doesn't only work for me, but it works for other people as well. And you can install the system for yourself if you want to. Just click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, I'll see you guys next week. Ciao, ciao.