Bitcoin & Ethereum: Not adding up

What's good, guys? So the scenario that we talked about on Bitcoin yesterday is so far still playing out. And until the point where it plays out, I don't think we have too much to talk about in terms of bitcoin, which is why we're also going to talk about Ethereum today. So just to run you down on the scenario that I'm looking at is the fact that, hey, even though we might have had the change in state of delivery and potentially the first step of a potential bull movement, this is not confirmed yet until this low is taken out. Why? Because this low right here and this low in the 1 Hourly chart lines very closely to each other, making them relatively equal lows. And also you have a essentially 0.705, you know, retracement if you were to return back to this area. So specifically, what I'm looking for is for a sweep of these relatively equal lows and then for price to make a strong movement to the upside, ideally resulting in some kind of a break and base, which is a sweep of liquidity followed by a break in market structure. So that would be an insane confirmation because previously, the other time that we got this, by the way, was here, once we swept the liquidity, we got a broken base, meaning you sweep the liquidity and move to, you know, break market structure in a very aggressive move, clean move, and then so far you're retracing. So this is already like a valid setup. Double confirmation is when this happens twice. So if you sweep the liquidity here again, this will be your double confirmation and it will be a much higher probability setup. And if that happens, then, yeah, we're totally, you know, into longs on Bitcoin. And, you know, the thing you need to keep in mind is that firstly on the weekly chart, we are still looking for some kind of a sweep underneath the weekly open so that we can take, you know, the expansion underneath the weekly open to the highs. Because last week the candle closed bullish after sweeping out this weekly low here, which means that our bias for this week is most likely higher rather than lower. And because of that, if our bias is higher than the power of three suggests that we want to look for buys underneath the weekly open and to look for sells above the weekly open to take profit. So that will be the general setup for this week. The only problem with that is that the daily chart is bearish until otherwise proven. This orange block here is going to remain as the key order block that we need to overcome before we can fully say with confidence that hey, bitcoin is now without a shadow of a doubt bullish and we can start taking longs to target the new all time high. Until then this entire move here could just be a retracement to go lower, right? Because that's what the trend is showing us at the moment. And so until that gets proven otherwise, we have to play this really cautiously. And why I'm waiting for a double confirmation before I even jump in. Because otherwise based on what the trend is showing us, the, you know, more likely than not you could just completely invalidate this change in state of delivery. And then now this entire block here becomes a really big resistance and you retrace back into it and you go lower. Hopefully that doesn't happen because I have bags on crypto as well and I do not want to see bitcoin continue going lower and for my bags to keep dumping. So hopefully we get the scenario that I'm looking for. But whether or not that actually happens or not is still, you know, completely up to the market. We can make predictions, we can be ready for whatever scenario, but at the end of the day we need to trade what the market gives us and what the market gives us. It's not going to be always what we want to see. It's time to take a look at Ethereum. Now. Honestly, Ethereum is absolutely just struggling. I don't even know how to explain how much Ethereum is struggling like now. First of all, Ethereum, Bitcoin has not yet been in an uptrend for quite literally years. Years. We had, you know, a theory on the demand, the weekly demand as well, the monthly demand. If you take a look at the monthly chart, this is a monthly demand zone. It did try to bounce out of it for a bit but obviously that failed. And you know, Ethereum since basically what 2021 has been on a downtrend compared to Bitcoin, which means that you would have been so much more profitable holding Bitcoin compared to Ethereum. So I don't even know what to say about this. Like, honestly, I'm holding to just one last sliver of hope, then one day Ethereum may, you know, outperform the markets once more. But honestly that hope is not very high. Again you have relatively equal highs here which will act as a draw liquidity. You also have another high at the all time high here. Now currently in terms of the weekly chart, Ethereum is sitting in some kind of a range deviation. I know I say this all the time. We have said this before in even on Ethereum, Bitcoin, that, oh, you know, range deviation. So more likely than not the statistics or the probabilities to point towards the fact that, you know, you could be going up from here. Whether or not that will actually happen or not is another question altogether. So let's just do a quick breakdown on Ethereum. So if we draw a fib from this low to this high right here, we can see that price is currently tapped into a 0.886, which means these are now relatively equal lows. At least on a technical perspective that is a problem because relatively equal lows will act as a draw liquidity before price eventually goes up. And if you take a look at this low right here, it's all the way down at 1500. So is there a world where Ethereum can go back to $1,500 based on the point analytics? It is possible. And the only way that you're going to be able to overcome this is if you start showing a bullish, or rather just if you start ranging here, you get a sweep of the range lows and then you break back into the range. That will be the signal for you to go long. Until that happens, though, this is overall to the downtrend. Until proven otherwise, I would like to think that we are in a range because boom, right there you have two highs. Boom, right here you have two lows. You have just swept the low, in fact. And so from this point onwards, the only like positive bullish signal that you can possibly have is that you start ranging. Basically you stop free falling, you start ranging. And if a press eventually sweep the range lows, because that's the essentially this will be your capitulation. After capitulations, you want to see some kind of accumulation. The fact that you're also doing this accumulation at the range lows will be a really positive signal for bulls if that happens. And if you start sweeping the range lows and you pump, that will be a broken base. Essentially you want to look for the same setup that I discussed on Bitcoin just now, but on, you know, Ethereum, basically sweep the low followed by breaking market structure, and then your entry is going to be here and you're going to be able to catch, you know, very close to the bottom. But otherwise, like Ethereum is just in a downtrend until otherwise proven. I would even go so far as to say that based on the last week's, you know, candle Ethereum, like, purely from a technical perspective, this week we should be looking for shorts. And so far, in the first Day of trading yesterday was Monday, today's Tuesday. This is the weekly open. We have been trading above the weekly open so far. And so, you know, potentially this could be your weekly profile. Taking a look at the daily chart to see if there are any potential opportunities. Right there you have a fairly cap that exists above three relatively equal highs. In fact, retail traders are going to be looking at this and be like, oh, that's a, that's a bare flag or whatever. So the ideal setup, if you do get it, would be a sweep of the liquidity. And I know this does not look like liquidity on the daily chart, but it's going to make sense once I show you how it looks like on the lower time frames. Taking a look at the lower time frames, this is swing high, 1, 2, 3, heading into also a fair value gap on the four hourly chart. And then so what you want to look for is sweep out the liquidity, fill in the favor gap, broken base to the downside and then that's going to be your entry right there. That's going to be the situation for Ethereum at the moment until otherwise proven. Now I'm not one to be a bear, but this is how the chart is, you know, playing out. And I would try to trade what the market is trying to tell me rather than what I would like to see in the market. And by the way, if you would like a free trading course delivered directly to your email, click the first link in the description box below. It's completely for free. Otherwise, Ethereum, this will be the setup until proven otherwise. And also the fact that you are also forming a range here means that again the way, the best way to trade ranges is not in the middle, right? As my head coach likes to say, don't diddle in the middle. When it comes to ranges, you want to trade the extremes which is shorting to high or going long at the low. Everything else between these two levels are just noise. And so patience is going to pay on Ethereum. Chances are it's going to be, you know, not more than a couple of days until you get some kind of a setup on Ethereum. But hey, who knows? Trading is one whole big waiting game anyways at the end of the day. And the best traders wait for the good setups to come to them. The traders that lose money are the ones that chase price in the middle when you have all of this chop and all of this noise. With that said, hope you enjoyed this video. If you want to see more analyses done from the smart money perspective on crypto. Subscribe and turn on the bell notification. But until then, I'll see you in the next one. Bye. Bye.