bitcoin is setting up for an AGGRESSIVE drop (exact downside targets inside)

What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Before I get into this one, just a reminder that the Blueprint Summer Intake is currently open after being closed for about 3 months, and in about 8 days Blueprint is going to close again. So if you've always wanted to learn my system and just start getting, you know, more consistent with trading, feel free to click the first link in the description box below. But otherwise, let's get into the video. Now just real quick, the opportunity today seems to be pretty straightforward. If anything, today is looking like a super high-quality day, so I'm going to break the setup down in today's video. It's going to be super straightforward, but just right before I get into it, if you need new here, welcome. My name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these calls, and currently I'm at about a 78% win rate with about 220 trades taken. So basically, it just means that I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. So you're probably in the right place. With that out of the way though, let's get into the kind of setup for today. And just right off the get-go, we are looking at the daily chart right here, and so far we're looking at a bearish daily bias. Now, if you guys recall from yesterday, one of the theories that we tried to take advantage of was some sort of a short because, um, that was how the hourly kind of candle ended up closing, which I will get into later. But today we are also dealing with a bearish daily bias. And if anything, today is going to be way more straightforward compared to yesterday, or at the very least is going to be way more clear compared to yesterday. Now that we are going down into the 1-hour chart, I'll explain what I mean when I say like things are looking a lot more clear. So first of all, we have gotten a very confirmed CSD over here. Secondly, we filled in this order block from yesterday, and currently price is dumping and forming new bearish market structure and new bearish order flow. Now As you can also see on the chart here, this was the trade that we ended up taking yesterday, which ended up being a loss personally, but just a tiny one, like a half-risk loss. But either way, I've already documented that down. That makes the 18th loss of the year with about 38 wins so far this year. To those of the people that are kind of like trash-talking, you know, on X or like on YouTube, like saying, oh, your system sucks, whatever, yeah, you lost the trade, I won, yeah, it makes me better. Yeah, come on, man, like we are trading completely different systems at the moment. If there's one thing you need to understand about trading is that there are hundreds, if not thousands, of strategies out there. They can all be right all at the same time. They're just different, right? And whatever, like for example, Person A will use the RSI MACD and they will win in some situations where I lose. There are also some situations where I will get a win where they will get no trades or lose, right? It's not like one system's better than the other. It's just different kind of price action setups and different kind of market conditions will favor different systems. So while yesterday ended up being a loss for me and ended up being a win for some other people. That's perfectly normal. It's kind of how the markets work. It's not like there is only one strategy under the sun, and it's not like, you know, adding more concepts will immediately make this strategy better or whatever. But at the end of the day, I think the overall success rate explains itself. I'm not trying to win every single trade under the sun. Neither am I trying to, you know, catch every move that is in the market. I'm just trying to catch one or two high probability moves during the day without spending more than an hour on the charts because Me personally, I optimize for a lot of freedom. I would love to have my time to just do the things that I enjoy rather than spending all day at the charts. Now, there are times where I will spend all day at the charts, and at that point, I will utilize a different system, a scalping model, for example, where I'm taking multiple trades a day. But still, I digress. Just overall, just understand that it's not that one system is better than the other. It's just you got to realize, you know, everyone's optimizing for different goals. If your goal is to build a trading system that allows you to do this with like under an hour a day or under 2 hours a day, which is what most Blueprint students are currently doing, by the way, nobody's spending more than 2 to 3 hours a day max on the charts. And we've got, I think at this point, close to 50— I think we've at this point got close to 60 funded traders who are doing this full-time without needing to sacrifice their time and have trading become like a second kind of full-time job where they're spending, you know, 9 to 5 just staring at charts. But anyways, I digress. Just overall, just understand that the market is in a much clearer trend today compared to yesterday where Like, don't get me wrong, yesterday was a clear trend as well, right? This was a valid trade that just did not end up playing out, which is perfectly fine. Today, the setup is going to be rather straightforward where we currently have a couple of order blocks on the 1-hourly chart. Um, although I don't think I am going to really even consider this one above here. I'm probably just going to be considering this one right here starting at 63,450. Secondly, we're going to consider this newly formed fair value gap over here on the 1-hourly chart. Basically, today the setup is when price enters into either one of these levels, which I cannot predict by the way, Like, it's not my job, neither am I trying to predict where the market is going to find its top. The mentality that you want to have as a trader, or a mentality that you want to have as a profitable trader, is that you have a couple of levels, right? No more than 2. And depending on which one gets filled at which time, that is the one that you look for. Basically, it's not about predicting, like, oh yeah, man, look at me, I'm so smart, I predicted that, whoa, the top is going to come at 63,100. You know, there was once upon a time where I tried to do that, especially if you watch my videos from like, I don't know, like 2021, maybe 2022 or whatever. Those were the times when I was trying to predict tops and predict bottoms, and I was trying to catch the— at the time, I was really fascinated with this thing called a sniper entry, right? It was kind of a term that I was really fascinated by. And I realized, and even though my accuracy was really high and I got close to like 10,000 views per video, the truth is, once I actually finished the year and I looked back at my P&L, I just didn't really make that much money. And that was the time when I realized that the very famous saying in trading, which goes something like, you can either be right or you can either make money in trading, and you don't you need to be right in order to make money. Like, till that point, that quote did not really kind of click for me. But once I realized that, oh, I don't actually have to predict where price is going to go in order to make money, a lot of the times I just define a couple of high probability levels, have a system, step by step I follow it once price gets into those levels, and boom, right? I make more money than I lose, and that's at the end of the day what matters. And at the moment, what I'm trying to optimize for— this is why I say I'm never trying to predict what the market is going to do. I'm simply looking at the price action, all right, purely based off of the system,, right? We want to short when we have a bearish daily bias, when the hourly order flow is bearish and the 5-minute is bearish. Once you come into an hourly PDA rate, that's the system. As long as price action shows me that, that's the video that I'm going to make because that is going to be the trade that I'm taking. So it's not really even that, you know, like for example, I've seen a couple comments recently saying like, bro, you're bullish one day and you're bearish the other day. Like, no shit, this is an intraday model where, you know, depending on the daily bias, like If previous day candle closes bullish, chances are I'm going to be looking for a long. If previous day candle closes bearish, chances are I'm going to be looking for a short. And I'm entering the trade and closing the trade all within a couple of hours. So yeah, of course it's going to change. Like, again, this is not like some long-term prediction channel or whatever. Like, if that's what you're looking for, there are a bunch of moon bros out there and degens that will tell you to, oh yeah, the Bitcoin bottom is going to be here. Like, good luck making money because they've already gotten so many people wrecked. Just by, you know, making baseless predictions of like, "Yo, yeah, Bitcoin's gonna find its bottom at $50,000, bro." Like, how do you know that? Obviously you can say like, "Okay, yeah, based on this theory and that theory and that indicator, chances are we're gonna find a bottom at $50K." But nobody knows for sure. And to make, you know, just, yeah, you know what, I'm gonna stop getting into this. Like, I'm diverting too far from the topic of the video. But otherwise, but I did really feel like I had to get that off my chest because the amount of comments that I've seen this week that Granted, this was a rough week, which is perfectly normal. It's not the first rough week. Heck, I've had rough 3 months before. So this is nothing new to me. Yeah, it's just that when, you know, you read enough comments, you know, when you're having a slightly rough week where you're not really getting that many opportunities and even the opportunities that you get in, we had 1 win and 1 loss for this week. When like, I usually don't really mind those comments, but when they keep coming in like multiple days in a row, it's just, yeah, it just gets annoying. But otherwise, it just gets a little annoying because you also know that, you know, these people are not you know, getting the full context from the videos, and they're just kind of like, oh yeah, bro, you're bullish one day, blah blah blah. Yeah, you know what, whatever. Let's continue getting into the video. Like, so far today we are not looking at any sort of news, which means one thing: A, this is going to be a generally low probability day, but B, it basically means that we're going to be looking to execute between the hours of 7 to 10 AM New York. So essentially right now you have again fair value gap and order block depending on where price is between 7 to 10 AM, and if you see a lower timeframe confirmation, that is going to be the trade that you end up getting into. Basically, if price is here, it's starting to break down at around, I don't know, 8:30 AM or something, then guess what? This is going to be the entry. If price is here and at around 8:30 AM or whatever price is breaking down, that's the entry that you take. And regardless of which one is going to be the one, I'm going to be making an update on X, so feel free to follow me there because I post all of my trade setups like on X, it's not gated behind some signals group or whatever. But at the end of the day, like, setup's pretty straightforward. Let me see if there are any potential targets that we can take advantage of. And I think it's going to be really obvious. Basically, it's going to be the relatively equal lows that I marked out at the start of the week, which I did not expect price to actually pump first and then take it out, because I was expecting price to take out the relatively equal lows and then form the low of the week, and then to just kind of like head towards the upside. But hey, I guess I was wrong in terms of that. Prediction. Not that I was predicting, because we still ended up reacting accordingly. But one thing's for sure, we had a bullish weekly bias, which again, if you guys remember from the early video that I did on Monday and Tuesday, basically the setup was going to be Monday, this is your weekly open. You're going to look for buys below the weekly open so that you can ride a true expansion towards the upside, and then the weekly close. Like, this so far has been spot on. And it doesn't mean that just because we're expecting a bullish weekly bias doesn't mean like, oh yeah, price is going to pump forever. It's like, we are just looking to catch one high probability move towards towards the upside. And obviously, if the market continues to put in bullish structure and bullish bias, we are going to continue to take advantage of that. But ultimately, right now, I think the bullish move is over, and right now we're just going to go for this low right here. So what I mean to say here is that the weekly objective has already been accomplished, so that's a win. Now, just to go down into the 4-hourly timeframe just to see if we're missing anything— not really. So right now, $61,800 is going to be target number 1, $61,300 is going to be target number 2. And again, you're just looking for a retrace and continuation towards the downside. Again, to the people that say like, oh yeah, you You're selling low into support, bro. Yeah, that's kind of the point of the system, right? You guys, anybody here that has followed this channel for long enough, you know that this is an incredibly profitable thing to do. It's very braindead and, you know, there's not much thinking involved. But at the same time, this is literally the essence of trend trading. If the market is going down, sell low and you buy back lower. If the market's going up, you buy high and you sell higher. Now, there are also other trading systems out there. For example, you can have a range trading system where your primary goal is to look to buy low and then to sell high. That kind of system is going to struggle when the market goes into a trend and it's expanding aggressively. And especially when you get breakouts, because for example, if you try to sell high and market is going through a breakout, guess what's going to happen? You're going to get stopped out. You're going to get liquidated. Okay, so just understand, like, there is a time and place for every system out there. When, you know, every system has its own rough patch. And that's what I'm trying to get across to you guys, which is, well, I'm not ranting just for the sake of ranting, even though it is a little bit frustrating. But the reason why I share this is that every system has its kind of like down periods. Range trading systems are going to struggle when the market is trending. Trend trading systems are going to struggle when the market is ranging. Now, the lesson you want to take away from this is that sometimes when you're going through a bit of a rough patch, it's important to just take a step back, relax, take a look at the markets. Okay, if you are trading a trend trading system, is the market in general ranging? If that is the case, it's perfectly normal for you to be struggling. The very nature of you optimizing your system to take advantage of trends means that it's going to have a weakness. Right, that's just how it is. There's no system that can optimize for both trends and ranges because that kind of defeats the purpose, right? You try to catch two birds, you end up catching none. That kind of theory. So essentially, the other way that I can describe this is that there are two different types of losses in the markets. One is the type of loss that you make yourself, right? You FOMO, you revenge trade, you fail to follow your system. That's on you. You should fix that 100%. And then there's a different type of loss where I like to call a system loss, which is usually a result of you following all of your rules of your system, but the trade just did not end up playing out. And there could be a couple of reasons for that. One is just, you know, you have a 50% win rate, that means half your trades are going to lose. It's a normal kind of like day in the life. But the second is that you're just operating in slightly lower probability conditions for your system, which I don't know what this week has been, but one thing I can see for sure is that we literally oscillated from bearish to bullish to bearish and then like Today's probably the one day, right? Friday as well as yesterday were the two days where we had some continuation, where we had a proper trend. So very normal to struggle this week. Hopefully next week we're going to get way more opportunities. Again, it's just a rough week. Very normal in your journey as a trader or in anyone's journey as a trader. What's important is how you deal with that and how, like, for example, I'm not shaken up by this. Yeah, this is just a normal week in the life. But with that said though, if any of the mindset stuff as well as the psychological as well as the mental models kind of resonated with you, this is exactly the thing that I focus on inside Blueprint because the truth is If you're not profitable at this point after watching hundreds, if not thousands of videos, like the best strategies, or like you know a lot about technical analysis but you never are able to translate that into live profits, chances are you don't have a knowledge problem, you have an execution problem, right? There is something in between knowledge and execution. It's where you need to fix. This is where these mental models, these, you know, mindset stuff, even though they sound really woo-woo, but the truth is if you know how to think about the markets and if you know how to execute, that's the difference between you currently struggling and achieving the outcome that you want from trading. If that sounds good to you, click the first link in the description box below. I promise you this is going to change your life. But otherwise, I'm going to see you guys later on X and next week for more videos. Ciao ciao!