the BIGGEST trade signal for bitcoin just showed itself (don't miss this!)
In this solo YouTube analysis, host Xuan of The Art of Crypto walks viewers through a detailed Bitcoin trade idea for the day of October 16, 2026. He begins by establishing his credibility (75% win rate over two years) and thanks viewers for birthday wishes. He then presents a macro backdrop—high bond yields, persistent inflation, weak job market, and aggressive Fed rate hikes—arguing that these conditions are unfavourable for a bull run, yet notes the historical four‑year cycle and the timing of the current bear market bottom. On the weekly chart, a previously bearish bias has flipped as price filled a bullish order block, creating a swing‑trade entry zone with a potential 6% stop loss against a 57% upside to the prior $126k high, yielding a >20:1 risk‑to‑reward. He explains the concept of bullish change of supply/demand (CSD) and liquidity sweeps, and ties weekly, daily, and hourly timeframes together. The intraday setup hinges on a 1‑hour bullish CSD and a trigger of a candle closing above $82,400; stop‑loss placement is suggested on the 5‑minute chart, with a profit target of 2R (around $83,300) and optional longer upside. Xuan reflects on a missed trade from the previous day, describing the timing error and lessons learned. Throughout, he emphasizes risk management, the importance of not being too early or too late, and the value of protecting downside. He also promotes his trading‑psychology masterclass and mentions personal plans (a special dinner). The video concludes with a call to follow his Twitter for live trade alerts and a reminder to watch the psychology video.
Chapters
What's good guys, welcome back to another video. I'm going to break down the exact trade that I'm looking for in terms of Bitcoin today, and let me tell you, today is going to be a little bit more complicated to approach than a usual day. So yeah, I'm going to break this down. But yeah, before I get into it though, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've had a 75% win rate on all of these daily YouTube trade calls that I've been making for the past 2 years. And so yeah, tend to be right just a tiny bit more often compared to when I'm wrong. And also to everyone that wished me happy birthday, like I'm genuinely surprised you guys even remember. Like I wasn't expecting anyone like from the, I don't know, like the professional side of things to actually remember. But just know that it truly does warm my heart and really appreciate it. And I'm also just very pleasantly surprised that, you know, people will remember. But yeah, thank you. But with that out of the way though, let's get into the video. So kicking things off on the overall just higher time frame, I'm going to be straight up with you that the weekly objective at the moment has already been achieved in the sense where we initially had a bearish weekly bias, which means this week we were looking for some sort of weekly expansion towards the downside. And this has been the thing that we look for over the few days, and so far it's happened. It's come exactly to the level that I marked out, and so far we are also coming back into this bullish order block right here. And one of the key things to understand about this bullish order block, by the way, in case you guys are interested in a swing trade, is that this is actually the level that I would look for in terms of a swing trade, in a way where you could enter a trade here and— well, not a trade necessarily, but more so like if you were looking to get into Bitcoin spot and/or altcoin spot Then this is actually a great area to enter because you are not really standing to lose a lot in the sense where like the stop loss is only 6%, but you are standing to gain 57% even if you were to just go back to the previous all-time high, which is at $126,000. Now, of course, if in the event that we do come back into a bull run, we're not just going to go for the previous all-time high, right? Chances are we're going to make some sort of an expansion. And usually it's pretty fair to assume that, well, for the majority of bull runs out there, it would be fair to assume like a -0.5 or even a -1 standard deviation expansion. So in the event that this works out in the best-case scenario, you're looking at like a more than 20:1 risk-to-reward ratio. But the key thing here to understand is that this trade idea that I'm sharing with you right now is great for one reason. At the moment, in terms of the overall kind of macro picture, like you can definitely make arguments for why the bull run is not gonna come back. Like for example, the bond yields are currently at literally close to all-time highs. And besides that, you've got inflation basically running absolutely rampant because of the war and for other reasons as well. The job market is absolutely struggling. And for the most part, the Federal Reserve is going to be forced to raise interest rates Even though interest rates are already pretty high. So all of this just adds together into a macroeconomic environment where you wouldn't expect a bull run during this time. Let's just put it this way, especially if you compare it to bull runs of the past, where for example, in like 2017 or even 2020 or 2021, depending on what year you want to call it, both of those bull runs were huge and they like a lot of money really came in and it almost felt like stupidly easy to make money during those bull runs because the overall macroeconomic kind of liquidity situation just meant that there was a lot of money pouring in. But right now. You can argue the complete opposite, where the macro is looking absolutely horrendous and it's not great. And so that would be the counterargument. But on the flip side of the equation, you could also say that in terms of the four-year cycle, for the majority of the you know past cycles, the time taken for Bitcoin to go from its previous all-time high to literally the bear market low has on average been between ten to twelve months. Well, we formed the high last year at October, at the start of October, and we currently have the low, at least for now. At the, well, the end of June basically. So that's, let's say July, right? So that's around a period of 9 months, which kind of fits the overall timing that we would expect for some sort of a bear market bottom to come in. Plus the fact that you now have a bullish CSD on the weekly chart means that for the most part, regardless of what is happening on the macro, we do want to still look to get into like Bitcoin or altcoins, but we just want to make sure that we get in in a way that is going to protect our downside in the event that we are wrong. Because at the end of the day, this is still a pretty, it's not a super certain kind of decision. But at the same time, when it comes to investing into a bull run, you don't want to look for the very certain plays as well, because usually when you get maximum amount of certainty, it usually means that enough of the market, or rather enough players, have entered the market to the point where there is no longer much returns left to be had. That's arguably the riskiest time to get into the bull run because, well, chances are you're already too late. So you don't want to be too early, but you don't want to be too late. And the way we kind of manage this risk factor is to simply enter in a way where we are— we have a clear invalidation. We're here, The risk to reward is very favorable. Even if you just look at stuff like Solana, for example, very similar situation. You have a potentially even greater risk to reward because the market cap of Solana is way smaller than Bitcoin. Like, for example, if you were to just go back to the previous all-time high, you're already looking at a 16 to 1 risk to reward ratio. Oh, sorry, that's not even the previous all-time high. It's like over there. So yeah, you're already looking at like a 20 to 1 risk to reward ratio. And obviously this thing goes, you know, further. You're standing to gain more. But in the event that you happen to be wrong on your decision, guess what? It's just a 10% loss, and I think everyone is more than happy with that kind of a risk reward. Basically, I'm not saying that this is the absolute best decision, but at least based on the information that we have and based on the risk that we are feeling overall, and in terms of the overall risk, I think this is a great way to just kind of still gain exposure to the markets but protecting your downside in a way that is that is smart. Let's just put it that way. So swing trading aside, let's just get into the overall intraday perspective of it. And yeah, so far, the level that I'm. Marked out at the start of this week was basically the swing low on the daily chart. And also, this level right here is the same reason why yesterday I was also expecting price to, you know, give us a big dump, because I basically said like, yeah, price is not going to just start pumping before taking out this liquidity level over here. Usually when you leave behind relatively equal lows, the market tends to sweep it first before delivering the true move. Now that that has been met, now that the weekly order block has been filled, now for the most part, I think this is already setting the precedent for some sort of a long Which means that today, like chances are we're going to look to get into longs. And now we go into the lower timeframes and we can see that in terms of the 1-hourly chart, we already have a bullish CSD. Now before I talk more about today's trade, I think it's fair to kind of come clean about yesterday's trade. And when I say come clean, it's not like, you know, I did something wrong or anything. But the truth is yesterday when I posted the trade on Twitter, like not going to lie, I was feeling a little bit uncertain because I came into the markets just like 5 minutes late. Just to explain what I mean, the conditions for the trade yesterday that I mentioned in the video basically all came true. But when I actually— when it actually came time to execute, I basically hopped into the market on this candle right here rather than this candle. And the reason why that is a problem is because we formed the order block here at— what is this— like, we confirmed the order block at 8:50 AM. So basically, after the drop of the news, we confirmed the order block, but then we retraced into the news at 9:40. Now, I should have been at the markets at this time where I could have just entered a trade at You know, that level over there, right? Enter here, place my stop loss above this high right here, and target for 2R. And that would have been an absolute picture-perfect trade. But because I came into the markets at this time, I felt like I was already playing catch-up. And what ended up happening was that when this new order block here formed— just to draw it out, we formed this new order block— that is the time at which I called the trade, and it ended up just reversing from that point onwards. So that one's on me. Like, I knew full well that the target was already hit and that there wasn't going to be much of a move left, but I was just feeling a bit like, you know, I'm trying to catch up to the markets. It is what it is though. Like sometimes it happens, happens to the best of us actually. And it's a loss, but hey, seems like the market conditions are now returning and things are looking a lot more bullish. So let's take advantage of that, right? Let's not dwell on past mistakes and let's just try to take advantage of future gains. And we're going to start things off with this again, hourly CSD over here. And we can see that price is currently retesting the hourly CSD and is currently showing some sort of willingness to go towards the upside. So right now we have the daily bias pointing towards the upside. We have the overall weekly timeframe where we are pointing very clearly towards the upward direction, and we have a clear, you know, kind of area of interest where we want to see the weekly kind of bounce from. And then you just pair all of this into the hourly timeframe as well. Like, it's just looking super solid, right? Not only do we have technicals kind of aligning, but we also have the higher timeframe narrative also aligning with this trade idea that we're considering at the moment, which means that the trade setup for today is going to be also pretty straightforward. Now, Now that I'm looking at this chart as well, I can see that the relatively equal lows over here have been swept. Like, basically we formed a liquidity sweep where, you know, this previous swing low got swept, which means that at this point, if you manage to get a CSD on the 1-hourly chart after sweeping the liquidity, this low is very highly likely to be a protected low, or a strong low if you want to call it that. Both are just like— they both have similar meanings. And all that means is that if we do get into a trade after this happens, um, it's very highly Well, it's very likely that this trade is going to play out. Now, the only thing that I would keep in mind is the fact that today's Friday, and based on what I can see in terms of news today, we have absolutely no news, which means chances are we may not get enough volatility for us to get a, you know, like a clean, very aggressive move. But at least in terms of price action, everything is aligning well so far. And yeah, we're going to take the trade. Like, your trigger for today is going to be a candle closure above $82,400. And once you get a candle close on the 1-hourly chart above this level, then that basically validates this entire block over here as a potential bullish order block. And so the playbook is going to be relatively simple. You retrace and off you go. And obviously in terms of the stop loss here, you would utilize the 5-minute chart. Like for example, once you eventually get the CSD above, you would ideally place your stop loss based on the 5-minute. But even if you were to go from the 1-hourly, it's perfectly valid. The only thing again that I would be careful of when I place a trade directly on the 1-hourly timeframe is that, well, To achieve 2R, we only need to go to like $83,300. But if we're aiming for, you know, all the way up here, that's a 2% move, and that is about $2,000 away from where Bitcoin price currently is. And just taking a look at the daily volatility that we can expect so far, like on average, we've been expect— we've been getting around $2,000 to maybe $2,500 worth of daily kind of movement from the low to the high of the Bitcoin candle. And considering the low today is like at $81,700, hit $84,000 today, you're gonna need all of that daily volatility in order to hit that. So I would just probably lean towards taking profit at 2R. Like, whatever trade that you get into, as long as this trigger is met, like, it's— you're going to be good to go in terms of getting into a trade. Now, I will call any trades on Twitter, as I usually do. Like, if I jump into any trades, I'm going to let you guys know on Twitter. None of my trades are gated behind some signals groups or whatever. But this is one of the cleanest moves that I can see at least developing on the chart so far. And the only point of consideration is that today's Friday, it's the end of the week, we have no news, so we may not get enough volatility for this move to play out. But just in terms of the overall quality of the setup that we can see right now, uh, it is amazing and everything seems to be aligned. Now, if I happen to not post anything on Twitter today, like, I'm about to head out for like a pretty special dinner. Like, it's going to be a chef from Culinary Class Wars, for anyone who watched that, uh, Barbecue Lab director. He does amazing food for an amazing price as well. Like, for fine dining, it's very much worth the price. And Again, if you guys are in Korea, highly recommend it. So yeah, in the event that I don't make it home in time to jump into the trade, I'm not going to call it. But yeah, feels weird to say that I am now closer to 30 than I am to 20. But at some point, it's all going to feel even weirder to say that I'm closer to 100 than I'm closer to 0. But hey, we'll think about that when that time comes. But anyways, that's the trade that you look for. And recently, I posted an absolute masterclass on trading psychology. If you struggle with applying technical concepts, into the chart, especially when you jump into a real live trade and you, you have the tendency to like move your stop loss or whatever. I made a video that's going to help immensely with this. Currently the highest viewed non-daily video that I've ever posted. So I guess that goes to show that people do find amazing value from this. I just recommend you check it out, but otherwise I'll see you guys next week. See you.
