Trump's New Tariff Deal Is About To Crash Bitcoin

What's up everybody? Welcome back to another video. Last week we ended up on four out of four in terms of calls that we made last week. We accurately predicted that things were still going to continue going up and that they would continue going up aggressively. And throughout the entirety of last week I gave you guys the exact setups on an intraday basis just to get into trades. And we have managed to quite literally call the bottom on quite a few of them. And so this week is also going to be an interesting one. Now it's not going to be as easy as last week, I don't think, just because of how price action is kind of shaping up at the moment. Just to give you an idea right now, we've swept above the Asia high during London. This is usually a sign that the Asia was accumulation, London was manipulation and followed. Well, this is usually followed by distribution after the fact. So not the best sign at the moment. But I'm going to give you guys the breakdown from the higher time frames, understanding the macro, understanding what's happening. On the daily and fun fact the US just managed to negotiate a trade deal with China. I'm going to get into that in just the top tiny bit and I'm going to explain to you how that's going to affect price. So last week we were four out of four in terms of our calls, which brings our total amount of wins to 51 wins and about 12 losses I believe. So that's 63. Currently we are sitting well over above an 80% win rate. And so to those of you who are new to the channel or just understand that you're in the right place and I tend to be right more often than I'm wrong. So China has now cut tariffs on the US from 125% to 10% for 90 days. So currently there is still a lot of uncertainty going on in terms of the tariffs. And the only thing you need to understand is that as long as this pause on, you know, these tariffs are in place, then crypto or other risk on assets are going to have an environment where they can continue to thrive. And the moment these, you know, and so it doesn't really matter. And so for now the only thing that matters to us is that how long is this going to last? For instance, example, one of the things that we can see today right off the get go, in fact just within the last hour, because this news was released just in the last hour, said the dollar index has already started pumping and this is usually a really terrible sign for bitcoin because usually the higher the DXY goes, the lower Bitcoin goes. And currently this deal seems to favor the the US and so I think that based on this news as well as you know, how price action is kind of shaping up, I think we're going to go for a brief tiny little pause in an overall uptrend. So just to explain what I mean in terms of the weekly chart you are still very much towards the bullish direction. So just to explain what I mean, on the weekly chart you're very much in the bullish direction. Right? Not only is market structure, but order flow is also confirming this, which means that the previous all time high is going to remain the target until the foreseeable future. Unless some groundbreaking event shakes up everything, then that is going to be the target at the very minimum. Which means that now that we understand the trend like ultimately it's still going to target day if we get a, like a short term immediate like retracement, it will just be as the name suggests, a retracement before price moves towards the upside. And so now based on last week's candle, it was closed very, very bullish. And right now this entirety, like the entirety of this box right here is known as a imbalance in terms of price. And we can further refine this on the daily chart to all the way down here. So basically it wouldn't be a surprise for Bitcoin to actually retrace into this area from these, you know, tariff news. And with the dxy, you know, kind of going up right now, wouldn't be surprising to retrace into here before ultimately continuing the move to the previous all time high. Now this could happen this week, this could also happen next week. And the key thing that we want to look at here is news because the more news there are, there is more of a reason for price to be volatile and there is more of a reason for things to happen. And we can see that Tuesday we have cpi. Thursday we also have a lot of USD news and Friday we have more USD news. So this week is definitely full of news and that's a really good sign which means that I wouldn't be surprised if you see some kind of first half retracement during the week before continuing towards the upside. This is again taking into account the macro conditions such as the DXY currently pumping. Again the DXY is also in an overall downtrend and it like until you break above this block right here, you are still within an overall downtrend. Right? Because you this could Just be an order block retracement before you continue making new lows. Which also, you know, kind of lines up with a theory that, hey, bitcoin, we wouldn't be surprised if we saw a short term retracement before the move continues. Same thing for the DXY and for those of you who again do not understand the DXY and Bitcoin tends to move in, well, they're inversely correlated assets, which means that when the DXY goes up, Bitcoin tends to go down. The reason for this is because Bitcoin is denominated against the USD, it only makes sense that if USD goes up, Bitcoin goes down. Right? So very oversimplified explanation. But of course there are many more variables that go into this. But in short, right, that's how it works right now due to this news from, you know, Trump managing to negotiate a decent deal on, you know, the tariffs. It also means that confidence is going to return back to the US dollar. It's also the reason why the DXY is going up, which again, kind of lines up with the narrative that we've built up so far. So taking a look at the daily chart last, yesterday's daily candle closed bearish. Which means that wouldn't be surprising if you actually went bearish. And the thing that I really want to touch on is the fact that right now you have just broke above, or rather you have swept above the Asia highs. And usually when this happens again, it just tends to be accumulation, manipulation, distribution, which means the move for today is more likely than not going to be towards the downside. Now I will discuss how you can take advantage of that downside move, but also discuss like what is the potential for this downside, you know, scenario to get invalidated. So to kick things off first, we're going to start on the one hourly time frame. Immediately right off the get go, you will see that there are a lot of relatively equal lows over here, which means that ideally you really do not want this block to be broken below. In fact, I'm going to draw out this block right here, ideally for price to continue to the bullish side. You want to see Price fold this block and not break below it. Because if you break below it, then you're going to sweep up all of these relatively equal lows, fill in the fertility gap. Right? Just like what we discussed just now. And I think that there is a, you know, higher likelihood that this happens more than price. Just actually you're pumping from straight, like from here on outwards. Then if we can further refine this down to just today, this is going to be the block that matters. So let's head on to the five minute chart so I can give you a better or rather clearer picture. At the moment, Price is going to just, you know, sweep all of these relatively lows, potentially retrace somewhere here. And then during the New York session you're going to head towards the downside. That will be the plan until otherwise proven. Now what is the scenario that would prove this otherwise? It's if you retrace back into this block and Price starts showing willingness to head towards the upside, then that would mean that instead of an AMD kind of profile, you will get Asia. You know, London breaks above Asia comes back retrace and then trend continuation. Again, I think that this scenario is a little less likely to happen. I think more likely scenario here is that Price goes down. Which means that if as after the current moment that I'm filming this, it's 4:00am during New York, when you get closer to 7 to 10:00am New York, if you see a break underneath the Asia lows and then Price somehow retraces into the middle here, right into either one of these like ferbity gaps, then that will be your setup for the day. Right. It's not about just Price action, it's also reading Price action based on what is happening in terms of time. There are certain behaviors in Price that, you know, Price tends to repeat at certain times of the day and one of those times is definitely the New York session just to why we trade during the field zones. So today the setup is most likely more likely than not going to be that in terms of the one hourly, we have absolutely zero, you know, points of interest that we can go off of. So the only thing here is, you know, going off of the five minute. Now again, the thing that will invalidate this is if you retrace back into this order block and if you start showing signs of life in this case, it's going to be really tough for me to tell you where this is going to go. But again, just purely based off the dxy, based on what I'm seeing right now, you know, unless this starts reversing all of a sudden, and unless this starts reversing all of a sudden, think it's going to be more likely than not that we are going to head towards the downside. Now, kind of like a bullish scenario that you can think of is that once you fill in order block right here, if you can manage to break above this block. You can try to look for this to act as potential support and for Price to continue heading higher. But again, this is kind of like a less like a lower probability setup. So maybe tomorrow would be the better day for longs. But I think in terms of the day it's either, you know, you look for a short or it's kind of like a no trade day because it's going to take quite a lot for Price to actually continue the bullish direction. Now the best case scenario for bulls, by the way, is if you fill in this block and you just pump straight up. If you do that, if you can break, if you can confidently break above this block right here. Absolutely. Price retrace here and that's going to be the bullish scenario, the ideal bullish scenario. But either way guys, if you would like to work with me one on one where I get you from zero, or rather where you're at right now to fund it within the next 60 days, feel free to click First Link in the description box below. This is not going to be some signals group, it's not going to be some coaching program. You're working with me one on one and I'm going to get you to that finish line within 60 days. If you're serious about taking the next step in your trading, then check it out first link in the description box below. Otherwise, see you in the next one. Bye Bye.