In this YouTube video, Xuan of The Art of Crypto provides a live market analysis for Bitcoin ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) news release. He begins by establishing his credibility (≈75% win rate over 230 trades) and then outlines the importance of maintaining a higher‑timeframe (weekly) bullish bias despite bearish signals on lower timeframes. He explains that major market moves are driven by economic news, and the upcoming FOMC (today) and another high‑impact news event (tomorrow) set up a classic false‑move scenario that can trap uninformed traders. Xuan identifies a key bullish order block around $64,000 (present on both daily and 1‑hour charts) as the entry zone, with an invalidation level at a 1‑hour close below $63,665. He projects an intraday target of $65,700 and a longer‑term liquidity level near $67,300. The video also covers the typical range‑chopping behavior that occurs before late‑day news, the risk of stop‑loss sweeps, and the conditions under which the trade would be abandoned. Finally, Xuan promotes his live‑trading calls, Blueprint coaching program, and bootcamp, citing student success statistics.
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What's good guys, welcome back to another video. Today is going to be the first news day that we have for the week on Bitcoin, and you know what that means. Chances are we're going to get a pretty good setup for today, and I'm going to break down the exact trade that I'm going to be looking at for today in the video. Before I get into it though, if you're new here, welcome, my name is Xuan. I've been publicly documenting the success rate of all of these calls that I've been making on YouTube, and I have about a 75% win rate across 230 trades or so. And so All that means is that if you're here, chances are you're in the right place because I tend to be right just a tiny bit more compared to when I'm wrong. But with that out of the way though, let's finally get into the video. Now to kick things off, we are just going to mention real quick what the weekly bias is because we are technically still looking for longs. And if you guys recall what I mentioned on Monday, basically said that, okay, start of the week, if Monday and Tuesday ends up going down, we can actually look for Wednesday, Thursday, Friday to give us a move towards the upside because today we have news, tomorrow we also have news, Monday and Tuesday non-news days. And the reason why I bring this up is that you guys need to understand that every move in the markets tend to happen for one reason or the other. Most of the time, that reason tends to be economic news, because price doesn't just move for no reason, right? If the market makers are going to get involved, the big players are going to get involved in the markets to move it aggressively towards some sort of a liquidity target, they better have a good reason to do that. Today is going to be FOMC, and tomorrow is going to be another different red for the high-impact news. So both of these combined together sets us up for a perfect recipe for a Monday, Tuesday kind of false move towards the downside to trick everyone that doesn't know better into thinking that the market's actually going down. But in reality, this is just an opportunity for the smart money to buy low and potentially sell high into this liquidity level on the weekly chart right here, which is going to be at 67,300. So with that out of the way though, the reason— now the reason why I started things off with the weekly chart is because we want to keep in mind what the higher time frame bias is, right? A lot of the time I see, especially when I work with beginners, they— the moment they come down into the lower time frames, it's like they completely lose sight of what is the higher time frame. Like, just because yes, the daily chart is looking slightly bearish, that doesn't change the fact that again, we are looking for bullishness in the higher time frame. Now, when you lose track of the higher time frame, it's very easy to just get swept up into bearishness here and to start looking for shorts. But in reality, that's not what we're going to be doing here. And honestly, if you find yourself, you know, running into this situation where the moment you go into the lower time frames, it's like you cannot differentiate between if you should be looking for bullishness or bearishness, keep the higher timeframe in mind. The higher timeframe bias doesn't change every single hour. Now, for example, the weekly chart— the bias of the weekly chart is only going to change once a week at most, because every single weekly candle is a week long. So the daily bias, it does not change for the day. It's not like it— you start the Asia session off with a bearish daily bias, and by the time New York comes around, you're looking for a bullish daily bias, right? Doesn't quite work that way. That's why I always start my analysis on the higher time frame, it does not change that often, and you just have to pay attention and you just have to keep this in mind. So with that out of the way though, that also means that we're going to ignore this bearish signal that we're getting on the daily chart over here, because yes, this is a bearish CSD, yes, this is also a bearish CSD, but you could also argue that you're coming back into a bullish order block. And the way that I'm going to differentiate and pick which side of the equation that I'm going to be, I think, giving more weight to, well, You guessed it right, it's the weekly bias. It's the higher timeframe bias. Given that we are bullish, I'm going to pay less weight to these bearish movements because they could very well just be manipulative moves or just false moves. If especially if you keep getting like this applies to you, especially if you find yourself keep getting like ping-ponged around where you're bullish one moment and you're bearish one moment. Like again, just keep the higher timeframe in mind. It doesn't change that often. And so with that out of the way though, the only concern that I would kind of point out here is that we have a couple of relatively equal lows over there, which, um, actually let me just remove everything on the chart. So that this becomes a lot more clear. So the only concern that I would have heading into today in terms of high time frame is that we have a couple of relatively equal lows over here. And of course, like, again, we did get a bearish CSD. Now, is that going to change if we're going to be looking for longs or shorts? Probably not. So the setup for today is going to be coming back into this level of support over here. You're going to look for a bounce and taking out the order block, right? So in this case, this might feel a little bit risky, and it is, because it's not as clear-cut as a regular type of day. But the fact remains that, okay, if we're going with the higher time frame buys here, then we're going to be prioritizing longs, right? The only kind of key level when it comes to longs for today is going to be this order block starting at $64,000. Now the thing that makes this less ideal, and the reason why I brought it up just now, is because you're going to be trading not only into a daily order block, right, which I already drew out just now, but you're going to be trading into this 1-hourly order block over here. Essentially what that means is that when you actually retrace back into this level right here, you could make the argument that the market is just kind of getting rejected off of this level and is actually going to go lower, which leads me on to the next point, which is the invalidation scenario. Now, in the event that by the time you watch this video, price has given a candle close on a 1-hourly chart below 63,665, then obviously this is no longer valid, right? This entire idea that the market is going to go bullish today is invalidated. And I know that a lot of the times, like, just taking a look at the chart here, there may be concerns as to, like, okay, yeah, this is a, you know, 1-2-3-4-5 or whatever, like a retracement, and, you know, you're going to give a 1-2-3 expansion towards the downside. Like, if you're familiar with Elliott Waves, I'm sure you're going to be thinking of that. Secondly, if you just take a look at the hourly order flow. Like, yeah, it looks bearish, but again, keep in mind we are bullish in terms of the higher timeframe bias, and that's why we give a little bit more weight to bullishness, right? You're seeing a firsthand kind of application of this concept right here, right now. So it's not like, oh, just because the hourly timeframe is looking bearish, we prioritize bearish. Like, that is going to be the most foolproof way to put yourself in a position where you're going to get stopped out by fake moves. And also, one other thing to keep in mind is that news today is going to be at 2 PM. So chances are, if the entire New York morning just ends up chopping around between both of these levels. In fact, something similar happened last month as well, where like if I go back to Wednesday, July 8th, now I remember something similar happened as well during the FOMC, which is basically a day where you have 2 PM news and the entire morning just ends up chopping around, right? At the time we had a clear idea as to what the market was going to do, but essentially price just came back into the order block and just kind of chilled in between these two levels. And if we end up getting something similar on Bitcoin, like I wouldn't be surprised because this is just how FOMC days operate, which if you don't understand like the mechanism behind why this happens? Well, remember earlier in the video I said that the market, or rather major market moves, tend to happen when you have a strong reason for it to happen. Usually that tends to be economic calendar news. Now the problem with a day where you have 2 PM news, which by the way, it happens once a month, or more specifically red folder high impact news, like this happens once a month where you have FOMC, it always happens at 2 PM New York. What tends to happen when you have news coming that late in the morning, because like usually when you think about the New York morning session, it tends to be a pretty volatile session because this is kind of like the major kind of financial timing for the entire world. Everyone's looking at the New York open, and a lot of people are trading in the New York open. So there's a lot of money that kind of flows through the markets at around, you know, the New York morning time. What happens when you have FOMC, because it's usually coming at the afternoons, people in the morning are going to be a lot more hesitant, and they're going to be a lot more uncertain as to whether or not they should be taking moves. And so what ends up happening is that you end up getting a range where You know, price is just chopping around between two levels to kind of get people to get impatient, to kind of position themselves into the middle of the range, which point you're going to get a buildup of longs, then you're going to get a buildup of shorts. And well, what I mean by that is more specifically stop losses. Once you get this kind of buildup, well, guess what? By the time the FOMC news event comes around and you get into the afternoon news session, you can sweep both sides of the equation and kaboom! And this is probably how the day is going to end out, right? This is a possible scenario. So by the time you watch this video, if you just see this kind of you know, choppy range action start playing out, then you guys know what is going to happen. So again, I'm not trying to predict what the markets are going to do. Neither can I predict what the markets are going to do. But what I can tell you is that this is the setup that we're going to be looking for as long as, you know, conditions are not looking too bad. And that is the direction that I'm going to be leaning towards. In the event that we get a bearish CUSD, that's going to become a no trade. And in terms of if we do get the long, if it does play out, my target is going to be at 65,700 for this intraday trade. Again, just preparing you for a couple of high probability scenarios that could happen for today. But with that out of the way though, if I do make any updates, if I do jump into any trades, I'm probably going to post them on X. But like, quick disclaimer, I'm going to be having a couple of live trading calls with the Blueprint students tonight. There is a chance that I'm going to be too busy, like not only answering questions but also live trading alongside all of the other students, to kind of make a post on Twitter. So if I end up posting late, do forgive me for that. Which by the way, on that note, if you If you'd like to not only live trade alongside with me but work with me one-on-one or work with our team one-on-one to get yourself from where you are right now to making a full-time living from trading, then feel free to click the first link in the description box below where I'm going to be like, yeah, we're going to be working with you one-on-one personally every step of the way until you get the result. Nobody else in the trading industry does this because it's not particularly scalable, but the results speak for themselves. We have about 60 students, or at this point 65 students, inside Blue We have about 60 students inside bootcamp and about 30 of them are funded. This is all tracked. So yeah, this stuff works. If you're tired of, you know, putting in all these hours and effort into trading but not seeing the results that you know you can see from trading, click the link below and let's speak more.
