Tim Davies argues that falling AI costs will push companies to replace human workers faster than new jobs emerge, pointing to recent layoffs at tech firms and consultancies as evidence. He says workers should integrate AI into their roles now rather than wait, and suggests the job losses may eventually require universal basic income.
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I often get asked what the impact on jobs is going to be because of AI, and I think it's much bigger than just because of AI, because obviously robotics is moving along very quickly too. And there's several ways that I approach this, depending on the audience and depending how much I'm sharing optimistic or pessimistic futures. The impact on the job market because of AI is already being felt. You only need to look at statistics from platforms like upwork where you can see that the number of hires is dropping, the use of lower skilled resources is being reduced, the big consultancies are reducing headcount, the big tech companies are reducing headcount, and the graduate job market is getting a lot tougher. And essentially those who do not already have work experience at the time they graduate are struggling to find work. This is only going to accelerate because the capability of AI as we have it now is already breathtaking, but it's moving very quickly. The cost of intelligence is trending to zero. And that means that the price for a specific piece of work that is done by an intelligent human will reduce if it is done by AI. And so any capitalist driven company, which is any company that's run well, will be looking at how they can save money and generate more profit. And unfortunately for the jobs market, that is going to mean that more work is handed off to AI capabilities, to agents, and ultimately to robotics as it comes on to full mainstream use. So the job market is going to have a big impact. There are going to be large swathes of people who don't have the jobs that they used to do, and there will be the opportunity for retraining, there will be new job types created. But I don't think that the creation of new jobs in this revolution of work is going to match the amount that are put out of work. And I think there will be a requirement for some form of universal basic income. So if you're listening to this and thinking, does that mean my job's at risk? If you're doing your job the same way you've always done it, then yes, your job is at risk. If you're looking at how can I leverage these new abilities and capabilities within my job and within the business I work so that I'm able to do more than I was able to do previously by working in partnership with AI, then you have a future. But if you're in denial and think, I've always done it this way, we've always done it this way, we don't need to change. Unfortunately, the rug is going to get pulled out from under you and it's not going to be pretty. So in the best will possible, look at what AI can do for your business. Look at how you can use it within your job role and all being well, there will be work for all of us in the future.
