TJ Walker (YouTube monologue) reports that the Senate advanced a bipartisan short-term funding plan (60–40) to reopen the government through late January while postponing a binding extension of Affordable Care Act premium tax credits that currently help about 20 million people. Walker explains why many Senate Democrats accepted the compromise to end acute harms (grounded flights, interrupted SNAP benefits), outlines the political calculations on both sides, and highlights uncertainty about whether delayed health subsidies will pass and how that could affect voters and midterm politics.
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Senate edges toward reopening but drops the health care demand. The Senate has taken the first real step, ending the 40 day shutdown, advancing a bipartisan funding plan, 60 votes to 40 votes. The compromise would reopen government through late January and promises a December vote on extending affordable health care premium tax credit. But there's no guarantee those subsidies pass. According to the Associated Press and the New York Times. A small block of Democratic moderates broke ranks, citing mounting harm from grounded flights to delayed snap benefits. Those are the food benefits. Senate Leader John Thune said, quote, the time to act is now. Senator Schumer, the Democratic leader, opposed the deal, vowing, quote, we will not give up the fight. The package would reverse mass federal layoffs and ensure back pay. It still needs a final Senate vote, action by a House that's been out of town and the president's signature. As one negotiator put it, the pain was simply too acute to keep holding out. The political fight now shifts to whether Republicans will actually vote. Keep health cost down. Okay, so what's the real message here? Democrats cave because they do feel pain. They feel pain for their constituents. And the administration says pain, we love pain. The more pain, the merrier. The political fallout of on this is unclear at this moment. Anyone who tells you otherwise, that it's a clear cut win for one side or the other is blowing smoke up you know where. Yeah, the Democrats caved and it might make it look like Trump gets a real big win. But if 20 million Americans see their health care costs double next year, that could bring disaster for Republicans in the midterm elections. Let's dig a little deeper here. This is a complex issue. There's no doubt about it, because by all accounts, most Democrats in the Senate are really trying to stop what they see as sort of a bizarre overreach and authoritarian overreach by Trump in every aspect of life in America, every aspect of the economy, civil life, legal life. They are fed up. They want to put a monkey wrench in. The problem is trying to convince the American public that autocracy is a problem or that democracy is under threat. It's too abstract. It just does not resonate in the polls. So the Democrats a month or so ago coalesced, a couple of months ago coalesced around this idea of let's just pick one issue. And the issue is continuing benefits to 20 million Americans to help them with their health care costs. Because if they don't get a continue. It's not a new program. It's not asking for new big government. It's simply asking for a continuation of the subsidies 20 million Americans received. Otherwise their health care costs will double. And the estimate is that some 5 million Americans simply will not be able to afford any health insurance. So that was the issue. The Democrats coalesced around Trump. And this is one time you can't accuse Trump of chickening out or no taco here. He stuck to his guns and said, nope, I'm not going to negotiate. Take it or leave it. Increase the debt ceiling or I keep the government closed and meanwhile, I'll just start firing permanently federal employees. I can do what I want. I'm president and the government shut down. That was his message. And this is time when you could say he did stick with it. A handful of Democrats came to the conclusion that Trump's not going to change. Meanwhile, we're the party that's supposed to protect tens of millions of Americans, primarily women and children, who survive only because of these snap, these food stamp benefits. So if he's not ever going to give in, we have to minimize pain and suffering of tens of millions of Americans. That was their logic. So that's why they're stating that, in fact, they're willing to essentially throw in the towel and reopen the government without any promises of continuing the health care. Now, they did extract some minor concessions where there's kind of a promise of a promise to have a vote on something in December about extending tax credits for the health care plan. But really, you know, that could change at any moment or be forgotten in any moment. There's also an additional political dynamic. There are a lot of Democrats now who are saying, of all the reasons to try to oppose Trump, why do we want to oppose the Trump administration if what they are about to do is going to destroy their political popularity? There's a school of thought that says when 20 million Americans, including Marjorie Taylor Greene's own adult children, see their health care costs double next year, which it's scheduled to do, they're going to go crazy. Talk about an affordability crisis. Talk about inflation. That's going to be 100% inflation on health care costs for literally tens of millions of Americans. So there are a lot of Democrats who are saying, look, I understand why we want to say no to Trump, while we don't want to give him a blank check to continue eviscerating the federal government. But why do we really want to help him politically? Because if he gets what he wants, what he says he's asking, the dynamic is such that tens of millions of Americans are going to see their health care costs double. They're going to see essentially 100% inflation. And most of these people live in so called red states, Republican states. So it should actually harm Trump and the Republican Party the most if they get what they want. So there is a lot of complexity into the political dynamics of this situation. That's why I'm being totally honest and transparent with you here. I am here as a sane, sensible centrist. I'm not carrying the water of any one political party. And you're going to hear a lot of spin from Fox, msnbc, other commentators saying this is a clear cut victory for this side or clear cut loss for that side. It's not clear at all at this point. Yes, a case can be made, in fact, that this could really harm Republicans and that the Democrats had a huge, huge win from this shutdown by hammering home again and again and again the President wants to double your health care costs. It has resonated with the public. Polls now show that most Americans, even most Republicans, favor extending these health care benefits to the 20 million Americans who would otherwise see them end. So the Democrats have done a good job of communicating the message that this shutdown, it's not about sending protesters to or National Guard to Chicago or to Southern California. That's not how this shutdown has been defined. It's been defined as the Democrats are standing up for Americans not seeing their health care costs double. So that message has been hammered home every single day for 40 days. And that's one reason why a lot of polls show that a slight plurality. I don't want to oversell this, but between 10%, maybe as high as 19% of Americans favor the Democrats position and fault the Republican position on this government shutdown. But again, I don't want to oversell this. The Republican Party, the White House can now sell this. As we stood up for fiscal responsibility, the Democrats caved. I am the strong leader. I stood by my guns. I didn't cave. And the Democrats came to me. That's leader. They can sell that message. And for many Americans, it might resonate as well. What do you think? I'd love to hear from you. And please don't just give me the partisan spin now. Everyone has political beliefs and most of us, if we're not a member of a particular political party, often align our votes with one or the other. But I'm interested. What is your honest take on this government shutdown? Because as I've outlined before, there were always, always three possible solutions. One, the Democrats say, okay, give you whatever you want. Second option was the Democrats had their own proposals, saying, let's just do everything as we've been doing it, not cut the health care benefits for people. And the Republican Party and Trump could have accepted that easily and opened the government up 40 days ago. The third option was the Republicans had the power all times in their pocket. All they had to do was run the United States Senate in a more Democratic way and pass a rule that says majority rules, 51 votes that passes. They didn't do that. So there's always, always been three options. So whatever spin you want to give me, please, or whatever perspective, don't just give me the political spin that it was just one party's fault. That is all I'm asking for.
