Powell Stays, Super-Speeders Targeted, Oil Soars Above $120 | Filtered with TJ Walker

Ultimize. Jerome Powell just delivered the biggest headline out of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. He is not, I repeat, not resigning and plans to stay through the end of his term, which would expire in a couple of years. That's the news. And it comes at the exact same moment the Fed made its policy, policy decision. They held interest rates steady, but they did it on a 9-3 vote. 3 members pushed to cut rates immediately. The majority said no. So the real story isn't just one thing, it's the collusion of both Powell staying and a Fed that's starting to fracture internally. Jerome Powell just made it clear he is not resigning. I think it's a good thing, and that matters a lot more than people think because this comes at the exact moment when the Fed is starting to split internally. 9-3 vote with 3 members already pushing for rate cuts. So now you've got pressure from the outside, disagreement on the inside, and the one person standing in the middle saying, I'm staying put. That's not just a personnel decision, that's a signal. It tells markets, politicians, and everyone watching that the Fed leadership isn't going to rotate out when the pressure ramps up. In a moment like this, stability at the top might be the only thing that keeps policy from drifting in a very different direction. Now let's look at that 9-3 vote more closely. In a normal economic environment, you cut rates when inflation is clearly defeated or the economy is weakening significantly. Well, guess what? We're not fully there. Inflation hasn't completely disappeared and the economy hasn't collapsed either. So when 3 members are already voting for cuts, it raises a legitimate question. Is that purely data-driven or is it something else influencing these decisions? There's a reason central bank independence matters. It's not theory, it's history. Argentina, over 100% inflation, currency collapse, savings wiped out. That happened because of their political influence. Turkey, political pressure for lower rates. What happened? Inflation went above 80%, currency plunges. Here's the key insight. Those disasters don't start when everything falls apart. They start earlier, when central banks begin making decisions that don't quite line up with the economic reality in front of them. So when you see votes that push for rate cuts before inflation is fully under control, that's not just a technical disagreement. It's something you watch very closely. Now add the political layer. Donald Trump has been publicly demanding rate cuts and attacking Powell for not delivering them. So when Powell says he's not resigning and the Fed still refuses to cut taxes, that's not coincidence, that's resistance. Powell's term as chair runs through May 2026, but he can remain on the board for 2 more years. So legally, everything he's doing is standard. What's not standard is the environment he's doing it in, because Typically, if you've been chairman of the Fed, you leave when your chairmanship ends. So here's the structural reality people miss. No single person controls interest rates. The Federal Open Market Committee votes, which means those 3 dissenting votes are real and they could grow over time. But it also means Powell staying matters even more because for now he remains the central figure shaping that debate, especially at a moment when the line between economic policy and political pressure is starting to blur. So the real takeaway from this meeting is the combination. Powell saying he's not resigning, which is a good thing, and a 9-3 vote with early pressure to cut rates, and a central bank being tested from both inside and outside at the same time. That's not routine. That's the kind of moment where institutions either hold or start to bend. Overall, I do think it's encouraging that Powell is staying. I think it's encouraging that at least 9 votes and governors are acting independently, but for how much longer, we'll see. We'll see. But Powell, stay there. Don't leave. Again, people could say, well, you know, everyone else, he's breaking norms. He's not stepping down. Well, That's in the context of the greatest norm of all being broken. President Trump trying to push this guy out, and when he wouldn't take the suggestion, trying to accuse him of fake, made-up, phony crimes about fraud redecorating the building. That's the absolute absurd. That's the real breaking of norms. So, pal, I'm glad you're staying. Let me just throw this out there for a second. If you've been listening to this show for a while, You already have more information than most people ever act on. That's not the problem. The problem is nothing is reinforcing it tomorrow or the next day or the next day. That's why I built Ultimise, to give you something you can use repeatedly, not just hear once and forget. So if this is resonating at all, just go to ultimise.com, grab the free course, communication skills, habit building, whichever one you want, and actually start putting this stuff into practice. It's free, no downside. Just go to ultimize.com. In New York City, there's a tiny group of drivers causing a massive amount of danger, and the city knows exactly who they are. They're called super speeders. These are drivers who get caught 16— not once or twice or 3 times, but 16 or more times in a single year on speed cameras. There are about 14,600 of them. Less than 1% of drivers, but they rack up staggering numbers of violations. Some of the worst offenders have been caught over a thousand times, and they're still on the road, believe it or not. New York City has drivers who've been caught speeding more than a thousand times. At that point, you're not breaking the law, you're stress testing the concept of consequences, because right now speeding in America is basically a lottery. You speed, Maybe there's a camera, maybe there's not. Maybe there's a cop, maybe there isn't. And most of the time you win. That's the system. So of course people keep doing it. If 99 times out of 100 nothing happens, people will take that bet all day long. This isn't a mystery, it's a probability. And we built a system where reckless driving is statistically rewarded. It's crazy. Now, Here's what's actually being proposed. New York is considering requiring those repeat offenders to install speed-limiting devices, technology that physically prevents a car from going far above the posted limit. And when New York City tested similar speed limiter technology in part of the non-emergency fleet, speeding dropped by 64%. So again, this isn't theoretical, it works. But let's be honest about something much bigger. We really wanted to stop dangerous driving, we could do it almost overnight. You could install automated speed cameras, license plate readers, and radar sensors on virtually every street in a city like New York, or for that matter, across America. These systems already exist in other places. They automatically detect your speed, capture your license plate, issue a fine, and log repeated offenses. No cop, no traffic stop, no argument on the side of the road, just math. Now, this isn't science fiction. The country of Qatar already uses automatic— excuse me, automated traffic cameras and radar systems to detect violations and issue fines electronically. I've been it, I've driven past it, I've seen it. Studies of fixed-speed cameras in Qatar have specifically looked at driver compliance across dozens of locations because this is a real enforcement model. It's not a fantasy. Kuwait has also used smart cameras and mobile radar systems for automated enforcement, with reports of major reductions in violations and accidents after using AI-powered cameras, mobile radars, and electronic ticketing. The point is not that Qatar or Kuwait some perfect model of freedom. The point is that the technology exists, it works, and everyone knows it works. People slow down when they know they're not playing the lottery anymore. That's the key. Right now, speeding in America feels like gambling at a casino where the house usually lets you win. You speed, nothing happens. You speed again, nothing happens. You speed a third time, Maybe once in a while you get a ticket for $50, $100. That's not enforcement. That's a mild subscription fee for driving like a maniac. If every street in New York had automated speed enforcement, the psychology would change instantly. First violation, fine. Second violation, bigger fine. Hit a serious threshold, say thousands of dollars in unpaid fines or repeated dangerous offenses, and your car gets —gets flagged. Keep going, your car gets immobilized or impounded. Game over. In every street in New York, or if every street in New York had automated speed enforcement, speeding would disappear almost overnight. Not because people suddenly become saints, because the odds change. Right now, speeding is like gambling at a casino where you win 99% of the time. And hey, yes, I have speeded before. I'm not proud of it. Of course people keep playing, but if you knew every time you sped you'd get caught, fined, and eventually lose your car, guess what? You wouldn't speed. I know I wouldn't. Or you'd do it once and that would be the last time. This isn't about human nature suddenly improving. It's about incentives. Change the odds and you change the behavior instantly. Now let's talk about red light cameras, because we've already run this experiment. Red light cameras photograph vehicles that enter intersections after the light turns red. The system records the violation, captures the plate, and sends the ticket. Again, no cop standing there, no chase, no confrontation, just evidence. And the research is clear. It's clear enough for normal people to understand. Red light cameras reduce the most dangerous crashes, especially front-into-side collisions, the kind where someone blasts through an intersection and T-bones another car. The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety says red light cameras reduce fatal red light running crashes, though they can increase rear-end crashes, which are usually less severe. A newer analysis found that even without automated emergency braking, red light cameras would cut injury crashes by as much as one-fifth and reduce crashes overall. So what happens? People complain. They say it's unfair, it's invasive, it's unconstitutional. They say it's just a money grab, and sometimes politicians get scared and shut the programs down or weaken them. It's happened in communities where I live. So we know the pattern: technology reduces harm, People get angry about being caught. Politicians, mm, they just cave. Then everyone goes right back to complaining that government doesn't work. That's the heart of the problem. Americans love to say government is inefficient, and sometimes it is, but in cases like this, we're demanding inefficiency. An efficient system would be simple, constant monitoring, automatic enforcement, real consequences, no loopholes. No, I gotta wait you pay with it. Deep down, a lot of people just don't want that. They want safety in theory and flexibility in practice. They want government efficient enough to protect them from everyone else, but inefficient enough to let them break the rules when they're late for dinner. That's not a political philosophy. That's toddler logic with a driver's license. Meanwhile, the stakes are enormous. There's an estimated 39,345 traffic deaths in the United States in 2024, 36,640 in 2025. Speeding was a contributing factor in 29% of all traffic fatalities in 2024. So no, not every road death is caused by speeding, but speeding is a major, major part of the slaughter. And yes, I'm using the word slaughter because when tens of thousands of people die every year, and we already know ways to reduce it, the word accident starts sounding a little too polite. Now bring in the future. Self-driving cars are no longer science fiction. They're already operating in American cities, and the strongest argument for them is not convenience, it's safety. The self-driving argument is simple. Most crashes involve human error. Machines don't get drunk. They don't text while they're driving. They don't get road rage because someone merged in front of them. They don't decide to go 58 in a 25 because they're late for Pilates and believe turn signals are a form of socialism. If we actually value human life, the direction is obvious: more automation, fewer human-controlled vehicles, and more safeguards on the humans who remain behind the wheel. That could mean mandatory speed governors for repeated offenders. It could mean built-in breathalyzers. It could mean automatic restrictions for drivers who prove over and over again they can't be trusted with the machine that weighs more than 2 tons. Yeah, that's how much cars weigh. It's close to about 4,400 pounds. So folks, this is frustrating to me. Uh, do I occasionally go over the speed limit? Am I perfect? No, I'm not. But the slaughter on our roads should be something that causes everyone to think we got to do better. So it's not just the United States. There are more than 1 million deaths on roads around the world each year. We're talking about pandemic-style deaths every year, and we just act like, oh, oh, hum, who cares, nothing we can do. Well, there is something we can do. What especially galls me is people who constantly moan and groan and whine about how inefficient government is. I see a direct correlation. The people who complain the most about government inefficiency are the very first ones to complain about things like red light cameras and automatic radar detectors that can reduce government spending collectively by millions, if not hundreds of millions of dollars, because you don't need to have state troopers and police officers sitting in a big expensive car, paying their salary and time, pointing a radar gun, one of the— it could all be automated. But the people who claim they care so much about government efficiency are always the ones who say, no, We want the government to be even more inefficient. It's an absolute absurdity. I'm TJ Walker. This is Filtered. There's more to come. Let me ask you something. How many times have you heard a great idea and thought, that's really useful, and then never used it again? It happens to all of us because without repetition, even the best ideas just fade. So instead of just collecting more information, do something different. Go to ultimize.com, U-L-T-A-M-I-Z-E dot com, and grab the free course. You can start with communication skills or building better habits, but the key is it's designed to reinforce the message so it actually sticks. If you're already listening or watching this, you're halfway there. Just go to ultimize.com and take the next step. Bye. We are back, and in the news, this is something that if you stopped off on the way home last night to get gas, you already know exactly what's in the news. Oil prices. Oil just blew past $120 a barrel, and there's nothing mysterious about why. This is Donald Trump's mess. He decided to escalate and maintain a blockade tied to Iran And it's put the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important oil routes on earth, under pressure. Normally about one-fifth of global oil supply flows through that narrow passage. You mess with that, you don't get a gentle price increase, you get a spike. Gas prices are already jumping around $4.30 a gallon, rising fast in just the past few days. That's not random. That's policy hitting your wallet. People keep asking, why is gas so expensive all of a sudden? Because Donald Trump is running global energy policy like it's a bar fight. You've got one of the most important oil checkpoints in the world, and instead of carefully managing it, he's in there chest bumping, escalating, refusing to back down. He's like the guy who flips a table at Applebee's and then wonders why the bill's higher. Here's the genius part. Every time he refuses to de-escalate, oil traders go, "Oh, this guy again," and they jack up prices immediately. So yeah, congratulations. You're not just buying gas anymore. You're sponsoring a geopolitical ego contest, and spoiler alert, ego contests don't come with coupons. And here's what makes this even more absurd. There actually is a simple way to ease this problem. Economists like Paul Krugman point out that both sides could just step back, end the blockade, reopen the shipping lanes, and let oil flow again. That's it. You don't have a grand deal, no complicated negotiation, just stop. Krugman's phrase is basically this: the only deal available is no deal. And that's exactly why it's not happening, because it requires something Trump has never demonstrated the ability to do. Or to say, I went too far. Here's the real reason your gas bill feels like a car payment, because fixing this would require Donald Trump to admit he made a mistake. And asking Trump to admit a mistake is like asking a casino to admit you're up money. It's just not a part of their business model. So instead, the standoff drags on. Oil goes up. Gas goes up, everything gets more expensive. And the wildest part, the solution is sitting right there. Everyone can see it, but it's being blocked by the one thing more expensive than oil right now— Trump's ego. Now zoom out for a moment because this doesn't stop at the pump. Higher oil prices ripple through everything— food, flights, shipping, manufacturing. Economists are already warning inflation could get worse before it improves. And global growth is slowing because of it. This is how one decision spreads through an entire economy. And if you step back, this was about as predictable as it gets. Putting someone with a long history of escalating conflicts, refusing to ever compromise, doubling down on losing positions in charge of a delicate global energy situation It's like hiring a guy who's crashed 5 cars and saying, this time he'll be great in Formula One. You don't get precision, you get chaos at high speed. A lot of people were promised lower prices by Trump, better deals, stronger outcomes, but global markets don't run on promises. They run on stability, and when stability disappears, especially in something as critical as oil, prices go up immediately. So what's actually happening right now? It's simple. Donald Trump escalated a situation involving one of the most critical oil routes in the world. He refuses to back down, and markets are reacting exactly the way you'd expect. That's why oil is now over $120 a barrel, and that's why gas prices are rising fast, and that's why this isn't getting fixed anytime soon. Not because it's complicated, because it's predictable. And apologies to anyone, I don't mean to go out and offend anyone, but I'm sorry, if you voted for this man, there is blood on your hands, or at least expensive oil on your hands. This is a guy who has bankrupted virtually every company he's ever touched, has looted companies he's touched, has stiffed everyone around him. Everyone seems to forget the fact that in Trump's first term, more jobs were lost than during any other presidential term since Herbert Hoover. Everyone seems to forget that's not politically correct to me. Oh, TJ, you can't mention that, there was COVID. And yet the very same people who say you can't hold Trump accountable for anything because of COVID are the very first ones to say Well, under COVID, there was inflation. Under Biden, you can't have it both ways. This guy's a massive screw-up. And if you bought the idea that he was going to reduce prices, well, you're paying for it and you're paying for it big time. Look, nobody likes to admit they made a mistake. I don't like to admit I made a mistake, but at some point you got to admit you made a mistake. This guy's an unmitigated disaster of epic proportion, and the sooner he is relieved from duties, the better off we all are. I'm TJ Walker. This is Filtered. Thanks for joining me today. I'm here every day looking at the top news stories of the day. Please join me tomorrow. See you