The Economy Is Up, The President’s Polls Are Down

According to the American Research Group, President Trump's approval rating is 37%. 58% disapproval. That's his overall approval. Disapproval ratings on the economy, 34% approve and 63% disapprove. 54% believe the US is in a recession. Not technically true, but that is what people believe. 65% say the economy is getting worse, and only 14% think next year will be better. Partisan Splits are stark. 79% of Republicans approve of Trump's job performance. 97% of Democrats disapprove. I've never seen a number like that. 97% of Democrats disapprove of President Trump's handling of the economy. Independents are 32% approval, 60% disapproval. That's probably a statistic that has the White House a little more concerned for economic context. California alone produced $5.2 trillion in 2023 gross domestic product. They're doing well, but the rest of the country is not California. What's the real message here? President Trump has always had low polling ratings compared to other presidents. Most of his first term, he's been down at 42, 40%, and it still worked out for him. But now when you're at 37%, dipping into the mid-30s, that's when a lot of people in your own party start to think, maybe I don't have to do whatever this guy says. Maybe I can be like Ted Cruz and Rand Paul and criticize Dear Leader and get away with it. That's the big problem for Trump with these falling approval ratings. Let's dig a little bit deeper now. So I will confess, I've been mystified throughout Trump's first term and through this term. It just seems like some big scandal happens. There's a huge outrage from across the spectrum, and people say, wow, this sure is going to change attitudes. And then you look at the polling numbers, and it's remarkably consistent. I'll give Trump credit for that. He has a base. The base has historically stuck with him for the last 10 years, but now some little. I mean, there's a huge difference between 42% of the country following you and supporting it at 37%. I know it might not sound like a lot, but that's pretty significant. Because when other Republican politicians who perhaps won easily reelection, are putting their own finger in the wind saying, which way are things going here? That's when they say, well, if I have a 57% approval rating, their own polls may show that in their state, and this guy is a 37%. Why do I want to be Blindly following him. Sure, he may tweet something mean against me, but I'd rather do that than be tied to his failed policy. Now, to be clear, I'm not saying these policies have failed yet. We are not technically, according to most serious economists, in a recession. Even though this latest polling from the American Research Group says that a huge percentage of Americans believe they're actually In a recession, 54% think that we are in a recession. More of a gut feeling, a vibe than a precise economic clinical analysis of our economy. But let's not forget the main message Trump had running for office was I alone can fix the economy. I'll stop inflation. Day one, we're going to have more and more jobs, manufacturing jobs, good, high paying manufacturing jobs come back to America as long as I'm president and none of those things have happened. I'm certainly not suggesting anyone from any other party would have instantly solved that problem. But it certainly appears that inflation is getting worse. And again, most economist, you can always cherry pick some outlier. But most economists who are centrist, right of center or left of center say these tariffs have massively contributed to the beginnings of inflation and they are expecting more inflation. So let's take a look at this in more detail. 14% expect the national economy to improve next year. That's a pretty low percentage. And what I'm also struck by is only 34%. According to this recent poll, only 34% of Americans approve of the way Donald Trump is handling the economy. That was supposed to be his big thing. There were so many people. Countless voters I talked to is, yes, I know he's got horrible moral value. Yeah, I know he lies. Yeah, I know he cheats. Yeah, I know he screws around with porn stars and be the worst husband and worst father ever. But he's a businessman. He'll bring back our economy. He'll make our economy strong. That was the argument I heard from countless people who voted for him. So that's big trouble when those people are now saying, not really a big fan of what he's doing to the economy because no one voted for him because they love his hairdo or his orange pancake makeup every day or the fact that he just complains all the time about everything and everyone. That's not why people voted for him. They voted for him because they believe he's the businessman who's going to get inflation down, bring back jobs and make this country run more like a successful business. And now it seems like people have changed their mind. Now, according to Nate Silver, the famed statistician and polling analyst. Where Trump is most vulnerable is on this issue of tariffs. It's not the issue of cracking down on the fcc. It's not the issue of cutting aid to poor countries, it's not Gaza, it's not any of that. Where he's most vulnerable is the tariffs. Tariffs have been out now in various forms in a lot of different ways for half a year or so. And there's starting to be a lot of losers. Some of the losers were some of Trump's biggest supporters. Specifically soybean farmers in the Midwest, in the upper Midwest region, have been decimated. Buy these tariffs because guess who, their biggest customer? China. China. That's right. That's who bought so many of American soybeans and American farmers where, let's face it, probably 98% of them voted for Trump, if they voted at all, are seeing their livelihoods decimated because of these tariffs. And they're not idiots. They can, they can see. Oh, last year we sold $3 billion worth. This year we're selling 1 million. Oh, where'd that 2 million go? Oh, our Chinese customers pick up the phone and talk to Beijing. Hey, why aren't you buying our stuff? We're not buying your stuff because you're not buying our stuff and you're putting these massive tariffs on us. It's a pretty simple, logical thread to get through to figure out what's happening and why. Exactly. Precisely. These tariffs are unpopular. A tariff, in case you didn't realize, is a tax. And traditionally the Republican Party was the anti tax party, so it's causing a lot of problems with the President's political base. Tariffs are also unpopular to centrist economists and even liberal economists because they believe you want as many friction free exchanges between the global economy as possible. You want people who do one thing well in one country to be able to sell their stuff to people in another country. That's why the United States is so rich. We've been able to do that better than anyone. And these tariffs are essentially killing the golden goose. And that's what is showing up in polls. So 37% approval rating. It's not quite panic time, but it is why some theorists and I referenced this in an article in yesterday's the Atlantic magazine. I would check out their website if I were you. Where there is a theory now that Trump is being so dramatic, so bold, consolidating power, eliminating the distinction between the executive branch and the legislative branch. He's doing everything to consolidate his power because he realizes that his approval Ratings are going down every day. His public support is going down. If this continues going into the 2026 campaign, he will lose the House, could even lose the Senate. And at that point, the only thing he'll be able to choose in the future is will he wear an orange pantsuit in prison or a yellow pantsuit in prison? So he's worried, and that's why he's sort of scrambling around, throwing so many things up against the wall every day to try to figure out how can we really get to the point where I don't have to worry about the public. Because guess what? That's the beauty of being a dictator. A dictator is never having to say you're sorry. A dictator is never having to take a poll. That's the beauty of having an authoritarian regime. You get to do what you want. And that's clearly where Trump is trying to head. But he's scrambling around, scurrying, figuring out, can he get there by 2026, to the point where he has cowed the entire administrative state in America, federal level and state level, to get to the point where elections won't really matter, because he'll be able to decide things in advance. Because at that point, the idea of us talking about opinion polls will seem trite at best.