TJ Walker (live-stream) analyzes the Clinton email controversy and predicts limited electoral damage. He divides Americans into three groups — ~40% strongly negative toward the Clintons (will be energized by the scandal), ~40% sympathetic or dismissive (won't be affected, may like her more), and ~20% indifferent (won't notice) — and argues the issue will play out like Benghazi, generating media attention but not changing votes. He also notes differences because Clinton is not in office and mentions mainstream media/liberal watchdog concerns about transparency.
Questions this video answers
March 4, 2015
Approximately 40% strongly negative, 40% sympathetic/immune, and 20% indifferent.
Chapters
It's day two of the Clinton email scandal. So where do things stand? As I predicted yesterday, this email scandal, or so called email scandal, is going to get huge, huge attention. It's probably going to generate thousands of hours of cable news, TV time, there'll be documentaries made, books written. It's going to be a big, big deal. How will it actually affect Hillary Clinton's reputation, her image, her political career, her political chances? Here's my assessment. Anytime you're dealing with a political figure this well known who's been around for so long, it's never just about the issue at hand. It has to be seen within the context of people's preconceived ideas about the individual. With Hillary Clinton, my estimation is there about 40% of Americans who think that Bill and Hillary Clinton are completely evil. They're fiendish, everything they do is wrong. Everything they do is either for corrupt reasons, for financial reasons, for cynical reasons. And everything they do should be looked at through the lens of potential criminal action. And for Those people, those 40% of the Americans, this issue is manna from heaven. This is the most interesting thing since Benghazi. In fact, it's very similar to Benghazi in that regard, in that it reaffirms every single worst stereotype these voters had about Hillary Clinton. So that's how it's going to play with that group. Now, there's a second group of Americans, and I think it's roughly 40%. And for this group of Americans, they kind of feel like they've been here before, they've been played before. The Clintons have been around for a quarter of a century on the national scene, not counting Hillary's early involvement in the committees to impeach and investigate President Nixon, but at a major level for the last 25 years. And in that time, we've been told Hillary and Bill were culpable of all sorts of horrible, horrible scandals. There was Travelgate, there was Filegate, there was Whitewater. Rush Limbaugh even told us that Vince Foster was found murdered in Hillary Clinton's apartment. Turned out Hillary Clinton didn't have an apartment in Washington where this was alleged to have happened. In every single case, often years and years later, the Clintons have been vindicated. Whitewater is one of the few examples, to my knowledge, of any governor in power in the 80s who didn't make money on real estate deals. The Clintons actually lost money in real estate deals at Whitewater. So there are a lot of people in America, and again, I'm saying roughly 40%. Yes, they are card carrying Democrats who feel like where there's smoke when it comes to Hillary Clinton, there's a smoke machine. They believe that Republicans and conservatives have consistently tried to paint a false picture of Hillary Clinton, that she's evil, corrupt, part of a radical left, sometimes a part of a radical right about cashing in on government and making herself rich. And they frankly feel like it's all a bunch of nonsense. Now, for this group of people, my prediction is it doesn't matter how many thousands of hours of investigations are held on TV and elsewhere, it's not going to hurt their approval of Hillary Clinton. They're not going to look at her in any less of a light. If anything, they're going to like her more because they're going to figure Republicans must really fear her because they think she can win the White House. So it's not going to hurt them at all. Now, there's a third group of voters out there, roughly 20%, and they don't really have a strong opinion of Hillary Clinton. They also frankly don't care that much about what government officials use for their email or if they have multiple email addresses to these voters. The fixation of the whole political media establishment on an email a politician may or may not have written eight years ago or six years ago is a perfect example of why they hate government, hate politics, and try not to read any news about politics. So my prediction is this controversy isn't even paid attention to by their, by these voters, therefore it won't have any political impact. Now, what complicates this further is Hillary Clinton isn't in public office now. So it's not like even if you could have partisan prosecutors go after her, that there'd be much to go after. You can't kick her out of office. So it's always hard predicting controversies and crises in the media, how they play out. But I am going to go on record now saying that this is going to be an issue that is more like Benghazi, where the people who are upset about Benghazi are really upset about it and think it's a disqualifying scandal for a politician. But it in fact hasn't, based on any polling I've seen, changed a single vote away from Hillary Clinton. I think this issue will be exactly the same. Well, now what's different about it is you do have members of the mainstream media and you do have some liberal watchdog groups very upset about the lack of transparency. But are they really going to then cross the aisle and vote for a Jeb Bush or a Rand Paul or a Ted Cruz. Highly, highly unlikely. I'm TJ Walker. I'd love to hear your views of this. Please post your comments below.
