TJ Walker grades the 2016 Republican debate, giving Marco Rubio and John Kasich top marks for establishment appeal. He argues Trump won by staying in character, and warns that Super PACs and a crowded field could let a polarizing candidate capture delegates with a small, devoted base and wreck the general election.
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So who won the first Republican GOP debate? The answer may surprise you. The first allies GOP debate for 2016 happened last night and it was quite the spectacle. I had to give credit to Fox News Channel. Their reporters and moderators did not hold back. They asked incredibly tough questions that if, if members of ABC's newscast or NBC or anyone else had asked those questions, they would have been pilloried for left wing or Democratic media bias. So I do have to give tremendous credit to Fox for asking pointed questions and making a fascinating debate. First, an overall assessment. There are a lot of strong communicators in this field. It's not just Christie or Trump, even Jeb Bush, Kasich, Huckabee, Walker, Cruz. I would give all of them very solid marks. B plus to A minus. I don't think Ben Carson or Rand Paul have as much going on. They're not awful, but I don't view them as above. Basically a C. But out of the 10 candidates, seven of them I think are excellent communicators and at times can be AA communicators. So who really won last night? Who got the most out of it? I think from the standpoint of the political establishment, the funders, when they were watching that debate, they were probably most impressed with Marco Rubio. He seemed most confident, he seemed comfortable, he had the right amount of emotion. I thought he came across as quite compelling. I do think he helped himself. Nobody else really hurt themselves. Nobody said things that are going to damage their candidacy. John Kasich certainly scored points with the media establishment and moderates and liberals. How much sway they have in actual voting I think is quite debatable. But he did get a lot of positive mentions. So who really helped their brand the most? Who communicated the most of what they're about and the essence of their candidacy? I would argue Donald Trump. Now, a lot of people attacked his performance and said he was finished in the first minute when he basically said he wasn't going to support a Republican in the general election if he didn't win the nomination. Here's why I say Donald Trump won. What is Donald Trump's brand? Donald Trump's brand is about saying, me, me, me, me. I'm the greatest. I'm the greatest. Well, he certainly did that last night. He's about saying, you're a dummy, you're stupid, you're a dummy. Well, he sure did that. And he's about being politically incorrect, being obnoxious when he feels like it, and being able to say things like, you're a fat Pig. You're an ugly slob. And you know, Rosie o', Donnell, you're a pig. Well, he did that and he did all. No matter what they threw in his face, you're bankrupt, you're sexist, you're this or that. He just let it bounce right off of him and essentially said, I am the greatest and everybody else is stupid. Well, folks, that's what Donald Trump has been doing in the media for 40 years. You might not like his politics, if you can even discern politics there. You might not like much about him, but that is his brand. That's what he's about. And he did that in flying colors last night. Now, here's where I differ from the traditional political analysis. Most pundits will say, yeah, Trump is high at the moment, but so was Herman Cain, so was Michele Bachmann, so was Newt Gingrich. And once voting starts, people start dropping out. And this person now who's the flavor of the month fades because 80% of the party thinks the person's an idiot. Here's what's different for 2016. It's this super PAC funding where someone like a Ted Cruz has raised what, north of $50 million. So if Ted Cruz comes in last place in Iowa, New New Hampshire, South Carolina, he doesn't have to drop out of the race. In traditional political dynamics of presidential politics, if you don't come in first, second, third, the first few primaries, all your money dries up. You don't have enough money for a campaign or to fly around. That's not necessarily what's going to happen next year. Because all you have to do is please one billionaire who can write a check for a billion dollars or $100 million, whatever you need. So you're not going to have to quit the campaign. The reason this is significant is you could see 10 or 17 as we have now, candidates continuing primary after primary after primary. If that happens, guess what, Donald Trump, I mean, if there's 20 candidates, if you get 6% of the vote, you can win every primary. Don't forget that most primaries are winner takes all. So if there's 20 candidates and you get 6% and everyone else has five or less, you can win almost all of the delegates. That's what's so different now. Politics has traditionally been stayed because communication, because you had to get 50% of the voters plus one, and things were constantly winnowing, people are constantly falling out of the campaign. And you go down to a two person race for primaries and certainly for general elections. But what if that isn't what happens this time. I think we're seeing a splintering in the political process the same way we've seen in the media world. Used to be three TV networks. Now there are gazillions of cable networks and billions of podcasts. It's all splintering. I believe Donald Trump is taking kind of the Rush Limbaugh approach. Rush Limbaugh is disliked by maybe 90, 95% of the population. But Rush Limbaugh says outrageous things, and he has a strong fervent following of about 5% of Americans. That makes him number one in talk radio wars. Since the 1980s, he's made nearly a billion dollars, if not more, from being in that niche and ignoring the fact that 95% of the people don't like him. Now, right now, the polls show that a huge, huge plurality, sometimes majorities of Republicans say they would never, ever vote for Donald Trump. Traditional political dynamics would suggest that's a killer for his campaign. Once the field gets through a few primaries, he would implode. But that might not happen. I think Donald Trump realizes what's happening with all the money in politics is we're going to have a situation more like Rush Limbaugh in radio land. If Donald Trump can appeal to forget the 20% that he has in the polls now, if he can just keep, say, 11% and all the other candidates stay in, Trump can be hated by 80% of the Republican voters, and he can be hated by 100% of the political establishment. And he could still win the most delegates and win the nomination, even if the vast majority of Republicans dislike him intensely. Now, if this happens, of course, it means Hillary Clinton wins 50 states in a landslide. It means she could basically pick Willie Horton or Fidel Castro as her running mate and she would beat Donald Trump. I would stake my life on that. I really would. So it's going to be an interesting primary season. If you're Donald Trump, why would you get out? We haven't even talked about whether he runs as an independent, although he obviously didn't rule that out last night. It's interesting times for the Republican Party because if Trump were to get the nomination, I do believe not only would Hillary Clinton win in the largest landslide ever, it would mean the complete, utter destruction of the modern Republican Party. I'm T.J. walker. What did you think of the debate? Post your comments here.
