TJ Walker (host of a 2016 YouTube live stream) argues that, contrary to popular belief, politicians often keep the promises they make in speeches. He cites political-science research and polling: a 2014 Rasmussen poll found only 4% of likely voters believe most politicians keep promises, yet studies suggest ~67–80% of campaign promises have been kept in various historical periods and countries. PolitiFact and other studies show promise-keeping rates around 70% (Obama ~70%; recent Republican leaders ~68%). Walker's thesis: speeches matter because the teams who craft campaign promises often remain influential in office; therefore listening to speeches gives insight into likely policy outcomes while retaining healthy skepticism for implausible claims.
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So why should anyone pay attention to what politicians say in their speeches? They're just all lies, aren't they?
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It's a fascinating new research that's come out from a couple of political scientists, Petri and Collette, entitled Measuring How Political Parties Keep Their Promises. Now, before we start, let's just look at the assumptions. Most people have. Most Americans, and perhaps in other countries, people just assume all politicians are all lies, don't even listen to what their speeches are. That's the conventional wisdom. And I've had this debate with political observers, journalists for decades. And people have laughed at me, scoffed at me, called me naive. But here's some research that backs up my thesis, which I'll share with you in a moment. But first, let's look at the research. A Rasmussen survey, well known polling company in 2014, found that just 4% likely voters that year believe that most politicians kept their promises. 83% did not. So if you feel that politicians lie most of the time, all the time, you're in good company. This is a long standing set of assumptions. However, here's what the research shows. Most politicians most of the time actually keep their promises. What they say in speeches. This is going back decades. Decades. If you look at US presidential politics from 1994 to 1966, some 72% of promises were kept. 1932 to 64, by some estimates, 80% of promises were kept. This is according to prominent political scientists. In 1997-99, 73%, the average was 67% of promises kept in in speeches. I'll tell you why this doesn't surprise me in just a moment.
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I'll never forget a conversation I had with a political journalist in Tallahassee, Florida, where I lived a quarter of a century ago. And she was telling me, well, T.J. you don't ever want to go to a politician's press conference giving a speech. That's not what a real investigative journalist does. You dig around, you stay away from official pronouncements and speeches and you look for dirt elsewhere. And indeed, that's a mainstream sentiment among political reporters. She's now a very successful reporter at cnn seen around the world. Here's the problem with that. When you look at the big policies that actually affect citizens, their taxes, their roads, their infrastructure, their health care, their education, that isn't determined typically by someone cutting a favor for some of the things that typically constitute scandals. Those are big, major policies that are done out in the open. You might not like the policies. I don't like the policies a lot of times. But what politicians actually say in their speeches most of the time, according to this research, that is in fact what they do. Now, George W. Bush, I wasn't a fan of his, but he promised tax cuts and education reform when he ran for president in his first year, he delivered both. Barack Obama promised to focus on the economy, health care, and the environment. Once he got in office, he passed a massive stimulus, Obamacare. You can say you don't like the policies, but that's what he ran on. And so this idea that politicians always lie simply is not true. PolitiFact has researched this. Their conclusion is that promises are kept about 70% of the time. What politicians actually say in speeches, this isn't just specific to the United States. Research shows that in several studies In Great Britain, 82.5% of promises are kept by politicians. In Canada, 73%. In the Netherlands, 61%. Here's why, folks. The very same people who are helping to write speeches, who are influencing the speechwriters, who are a part of the bureaucracy influencing the wording of the speeches, they're the ones in a campaign setting. They're the ones who, once that politician gets elected, they're the ones who have influence. They're the ones who have staff jobs. They're the ones who have policy jobs. So it's very difficult for a politician to politically gain, muster for one set of promises, have the policy experts to create that in a speech, get into office, and do the exact same thing. Of course, there are exceptions. Someone can say, I'm going to cut your taxes, strengthen defense and reduce the deficit and balance the budget, and maybe just get two of those. And maybe there was never really a plan for reducing the deficit. But that doesn't mean all speeches and all politicians are a liar. Of course politicians lie. And you can make the case that all human beings lie at some level some of the time. But I still contend, if you really want to know the most about what a politician is going to do in office, rummaging around in his garbage, rummaging around in his bedroom or his closet isn't really going to tell you much. It may be fun, it may be titillating, it may be fun to say, ha, ha, ha, this politician is a big hypocrite. He's cheating on his spouse or she's cheating doesn't really tell you what they're going to do on policy. If you want to know what they're going to do on most policies, listen to their speeches, read their speeches. It is in fact indicative of what they're going to do. Because politicians, especially at the presidential level, they simply can't know everything about every single topic. They deal with every aspect of public policy. Nobody's that smart. So they have to rely on whole teams of advisors and supporters and lobbyists. And the people who craft that speech during the campaign are exactly the same ones who have the influence once that person's in office. Now, sometimes it's because they are the actual staff aide or the cabinet secretary in charge of that. Sometimes it's because they are a lobbyist on the outside. But the very same people who gave them money to influence the candidate to say something are, are the very same people who want that politician now in office to do that thing. So it's not as simple as all politicians are liars all the time and never pay attention. That is a simplistic, cartoonish version of reality. And voters do themselves a real disservice by having that attitude. If you want to know what politicians are going to do, listen to them. Does that mean I completely believe Donald Trump will build a 70 foot wall on the border of Mexico and have Mexico pay for it? No. You have to have some level of skepticism and you have to judge the relative difficulty of certain promises. Some promises are more difficult than others. Increasing spending on favorite programs and reducing the deficit without increasing taxes is a perennial promise that you sort of know going into it is going to be a lie. Someone tells you, I'm just going to get rid of waste, fraud and abuse, but I'll continue to spend all the money you want on the programs you like and reduce your taxes and reduce the deficit. Well, you know that part of that is going to be a lie. You can't do all of those things. But by and large, the vast majority of things that politicians promise in their speeches, in their public sentiments, are in fact going to be done. And that's why we should listen to them. That's why it is important to listen to speeches, listen to debate. It's not all hot air. These are policies that actually affect our societies and you need to pay attention. Now, the most recent. I'm not being partisan here. This, these political scientists give roughly equal marks to Republicans and Democrats. Currently, PolitiFact says that if you look at the 500 promises President Barack Obama has made, in his presidential campaigns, he has kept, fully kept or reached some compromise on 70% of them. And then if you look at many Republican leaders who've taken over in Congress, they have partially kept or fully kept 68% of them. So that's essentially the same 70, 68%. That, my friends, is why speeches are important. It's why public speaking is important. I'm TJ Walker. May all of your presentations and your campaign speeches in life be a complete success.
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