TJ Walker breaks down why John Chambers' prediction that half of all high-tech companies will vanish in ten years is such an effective PR move. It's low-risk, backed by historical precedent, and lets a major CEO look prescient while subtly criticizing competitors. Walker says Chambers is worth studying for how he uses media.
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John Chambers, the CEO of Cisco, predicts that 10 years from now, half of all high tech companies will no longer exist. Now, people who follow CEOs and strong technology leaders have long been fascinated by John Chambers. He's just an incredible speaker. Maybe not quite as good as Steve Jobs, but he is still a fantastic communicator. If you've ever seen him give a keynote speech, he's as masterful as any professional speaker you've ever seen. Gifted communicator and great on TV too. So that's why it jumped out at me earlier this week when I saw him everywhere, splashed over the media with his prediction that 10 years from now, half of all high tech companies will no longer exist. Now, I'm not going to judge the merits of the prediction. I have no idea if the prediction is going to be accurate. I am going to judge it from the standpoint of a media hook and media manipulation. By that standard, it is a plus. It's off the charts because for starters, if he's wrong, nobody's going to call him on it ten years from now. So it's an entirely safe prediction, number one. Number two, it's one of those things that certainly seems true when you look at the history of industry. When you look at the history of the Dow Jones and capitalism, whether it's 10 years or certainly every 30 years, the vast majority of companies are no longer there. They've gone out of business, they've merged, they've imploded, new technologies have made them obsolete. I mean, look no further than the PC industry and all the players involved, late 70s, early 80s, not half of them are gone, 98% of them are gone. So his prediction certainly rings true. Number three, it's just interesting when a high tech leader and a CEO of a major corporation is making a prediction like this because it seems to be talking about weakness in his own rank. So that's what makes it an interesting media hook and guaranteed coverage. There's no potential downside. So media PR play of the day goes to John Chambers. Whether you like him, like his company or not, you would be well advised to study him, watch him anytime you can, check him out on YouTube, anytime you see him on TV or giving a speech, you can learn a lot.
