TJ Walker argues the Biden administration has no coherent Iran strategy despite 92% of Americans wanting the war to end quickly. The messaging keeps shifting from nuclear threat to shipping lanes to peace talks, and any disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could push gas prices to $5 or $6 per gallon.
Chapters
According to reporting from Reuters and CBS News, recent polling shows a clear pattern. A majority of Americans oppose the strikes on Iran, and an overwhelming 92% say ending the conflict quickly should be a top priority. Ultimatize. And here's the breakdown that really matters. Democrats, okay, maybe the administration doesn't have to care about that, but they are overwhelmingly opposed. Independents, strongly opposed to this. Republicans, mostly supportive, especially if they consider themselves MAGA, but even there, you're starting to see cracks. This is what political scientists call a fragile coalition for war. Translation, this thing is already on shaky ground. Now, let's talk about why, because the public isn't stupid. They're looking at this and thinking, what exactly is the plan here? And the answer is, good luck finding one. Look at the messaging. First, we were told this was about imminent threat. Then it was about stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions. Then it became about protecting shipping lanes. Then it was about reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Then suddenly it's peace talks are going well. Then it's we're going to obliterate them. Then it's we're pausing strikes because things are productive. That's not strategy. That's a guy changing his story mid-sentence. That's not a war doctrine. That's a bad infomercial. And here's the key point: when your explanation for war changes every 48 hours or every 48 minutes, people assume you don't actually have a reason, or at least a good reason. Our reason isn't about burying the Epstein files. Now, for the first 20 seconds, let's stay in the political scientist mode here. This is what we call a credibility collapse. The administration has failed to establish a clear objective, a consistent rationale, A believable endgame. And when that happens, public trust erodes quickly, especially among independents. Okay, now we can say it the normal way. This is classic Donald Trump. He has one move. He sells everything the same way. Trump Steaks, Trump University, Trump Casinos, Trump Vodka. It's always the same pitch. Believe me, it's tremendous. And then the details show up. The numbers don't add up. The plan doesn't exist and somebody else gets stuck with the bill. Atlantic City got bankrupted, students got scammed, customers got frozen steaks in the mail, and now he's applying the exact same business model to a war in the Middle East. That's the part that should terrify you because normally when Trump screws up something, it's contained. It's a casino, it's a brand, it's a lawsuit. Now the downside risk is global. Let's talk about gas, because this is where it gets real for people. As of March 23rd, 2026, US gas prices are hovering roughly in the $3.70 to $3.90 per gallon range, depending on the region. That's already a sharp jump from just a few weeks ago. Oil trading roughly in the $90 to $95 per barrel range, although it's gone over $100. And that's where the markets are still trying to figure out how bad this could get. Because here's what everyone in energy markets understands. If this escalates, if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted long-term, if Iran retaliates in a meaningful way, you're not talking about $3.80 gas anymore. You're talking about $5, $6, maybe higher. And here's the punchline. This isn't some unpredictable natural disaster. This was entirely self-inflicted. This is like setting your own house on fire and then saying, don't worry, I have a plan to manage the flames. And the plan is— what? Escalate to de-escalate? That's not a strategy. That's what gamblers say. Don't worry, I'm doubling down to get more conservative. No, that's how you lose everything. And that's the Trump playbook every time. Create chaos, declare victory, change the narrative, blame somebody else. But here's the difference this time. You can't bankrupt your way out of geopolitics. There's no Chapter 11 for the global economy. There's no Daddy Trump bailout for oil markets. There's no rebrand when gasoline hits $6 a gallon. And this is why the polling looks the way it does. Independents especially are looking at this and thinking, this guy doesn't know what he's doing, because they're not emotionally invested. They're not in the cult. They're just watching the behavior. And what they're seeing is no clear goal, no consistent message, no credible exit strategy, just vibes. War vibes. Pete Hegseth talking tough. I'm macho. And let me tell you something about war vibes. They get expensive because every time oil ticks up, that hits transportation, food prices, supply chains, inflation, everything. So when Trump says some version of, we've got this under control, what that really means is get ready to pay more for everything. And this is where I want to zoom out because this isn't just about Trump. This is about a pattern. The man screws up everything he touches. And I don't mean this as an insult. Okay, maybe a little bit. I mean, this is a documented business history. He has made mistakes after mistakes after mistakes. He's bankrupted numerous companies. Others just disappear. He gets entangled in lawsuits and there's nothing to show for it. Now, the good news is he didn't do this in his first term. Many people predicted he would do something this stupid, this ridiculous, Is this counterproductive in the first term? He didn't, but we're not that far into the second term. And it looks like the entire worldwide economy is really going to take a hit. Now you can say, well, TJ, it's not like in the '70s, the United States is now a net energy surplus company. We don't even need these other countries' oil. It doesn't work that way, friends. Sorry. There's one world market for all the oil. And if all of a sudden, You've got 20% less of it, prices have to skyrocket. Now, true, you could pass a law in the United States saying, hey, US oil companies, no windfall profits. If you think this administration is going to pass a law limiting profits on oil companies, you're living on another planet. They're not going to do that. So yes, it's fine. It's going to be fine for US oil companies. Are you the CEO of an oil company? I'm not. Chances are you aren't either. If you are the CEO of an oil company, yes, you can be dancing in the streets. You can be high-fiving Trump. I get it. But for everyone else, this is bad news. And don't say to yourself, "Well, I don't really drive that much." Do you eat food? Because guess what? Farmers need fertilizers. And we get so much of the raw material from guess where? The Middle East. And now, there's huge shortages. For that. So farmers are going to be hit. Food prices are going to be hit. You use a pan, guess what? Made of plastic, oil in there. There's so many things in our modern culture that are all dependent on oil. Yes, I love solar power and wind power, but let's face it, oil is still the lifeblood of our economy, our whole way of living. And Trump has needlessly given all of us a massive pay cut because we're all going to have to pay more money for his folly. Does that mean I'm saying Iran is a great country? They're wonderful? No, but there are a lot of countries that are not wonderful in the world. There's plenty of other theocracies. I don't really like the leadership of Saudi Arabia. Are we going to go take out Saudi Arabia next? I don't think so. So look, it's very easy to attack Trump, rightfully so. I want to turn this around and point to you. What sort of standards do you have for voting for someone in office. If it's just, I don't like the other team and this person is constantly insulting the other team, so I think it's cool, they're owning the whatever, maybe it's time to question that pattern and say, no, we need competence. We need people who actually have plans, can communicate plans, and take us someplace meaningful. Ultimize.
