What would it take for Trump to lose his base? #Politics #Trump #Analysis

TJ Walker examines why Trump's 32% approval base stays loyal despite scandals, contrasting media-amplified NYC crime stories with higher violence rates in places like Shreveport, Louisiana. He breaks down cognitive biases that make vivid events feel riskier than statistics, and mocks trends like pheromone maxing.
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Ultimize. A woman carrying 2 kitchen knives randomly stabbed 2 strangers in Times Square Monday afternoon. A 32-year-old woman was killed. A 68-year-old man was wounded. Police confronted the attacker, tried tasers, and shot her when she advanced on them with the knives. Police say it was not terrorism. It was a horrific, senseless crime. And because it happened in Times Square, millions will conclude New York City is one crime scene with a Shake Shack. I understand why. The attack was terrifying, on video, underneath enough billboards to give one stabbing a national advertising budget. But one spectacular crime does not tell you how dangerous a city is. It tells you where the cameras were. New York is the media capital of the world. If someone gets pushed onto subway tracks, 12 reporters and a man dressed as Elmo are already filming vertically. If the same thing happens in a small town, the local newspaper may cover it Thursday, right below Rotary Club pancake breakfast rescheduled. Conservative media turns every New York crime into a political theme park. Democratic hellscape. Fox News validates parking. Meanwhile, New York City recorded its fewest shootings ever in 2025. Murders fell to 305 in a city of more than 8 million people, and the first 7 months of 2026 set new record lows again. Now compare that with Shreveport, Louisiana, the largest city and Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson's district. Recent police figures show Shreveport at roughly 923 violent crimes for every 100,000 people. Using the same basic violent crime categories, New York City is roughly in the mid-500s. So, you're not 2% more likely to face violent crime in Shreveport. You're roughly 70% more likely to face a violent crime if you live in Shreveport. And depending on the recent year, Shreveport's murder rate has been roughly 3 to 4 times New York City's. Let that sink in. The supposedly terrifying liberal hellscape is New York City, but the largest city in Republican Mike Johnson's own district can carry nearly twice the violent crime risk and several times the murder risk. Yet nobody in Manhattan watches one Shreveport crime story and says, Louisiana? I wouldn't go there without body armor and Liam Neeson. We do this because our brains are not actuaries. Our Our brains are nervous Labradors. They see one frightening object and bark at it for 3 days. If a frightening example is easy to remember, we assume it happens constantly. Add, I knew liberal cities were dangerous, and I just saw it this morning, and one clip outranks millions of uneventful subway rides. That's why people fear shark attacks more than car crashes. A shark attack has teeth, blood, and dramatic music. A fatal car crash has a traffic report and an insurance deductible. You are not infinitely safe anywhere. Don't walk blindfolded on the subway. That is an audition for the emergency room. But Times Square is not dangerous because its rare crimes are famous. Fame is not frequency. The New York Post can put one stabbing on its cover. It can't feature 8 million people arriving safely Man takes train, nothing happens, exclusive photos. Here is today's personal development exercise. Before panicking, ask, am I looking at data or am I emotionally trapped inside one very effective thumbnail? Because your amygdala has breaking news alerts, your judgment needs the full article. Would you like to be the sort of successful person who is dominating news, at least in your industry? Well, if so, it's time to your skills. At ultimize.com, I've created online courses to help you do that. Now, here's the thing. No obligation. You can get a free course on communication skills, a free course on how to build better habits. All you have to do is go to ultimize.com. That's ultimize.com. No obligation. Go there now. Vice President J.D. Vance went to Michigan and called Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed very, very evil, but he meant it as a compliment. Liberals ignore J.D. Vance's greatest gift: spotting the true character of political leaders. He once called Donald Trump cultural heroin, noxious, reprehensible. Privately, he wondered whether Trump was a cynical asshole like Nixon or America's Hitler. That's not casual criticism. That is a Yelp review written during an exorcism. And then Vance devoted his career to supporting Trump. So Abdul El-Sayed should not feel insulted. He should start measuring the Oval Office for drapes. If Vance calls you evil Monday, by 2035 he may be behind you at a rally saying, this man alone can save Western civilization. I have always believed that, except for every searchable statement. Vance's insults are not attacks. They are political engagement announcements. El-Sayed should update his vision board: White House, Air Force One, and J.D. Vance holding a sign saying, Abdul was right. The latest UMass Amherst poll puts Trump's approval at 32%. Now, the media says this is terrible. Wrong! This may be Trump's greatest achievement. Any ordinary president can stay popular by doing things like growing the economy, stabilizing prices, and avoiding unnecessary wars. Presidential easy mode. Trump has kept nearly one-third behind him while the Iran War pushes up costs, and we're losing, Tariffs squeeze consumers, allies recoil, and a $400 million ballroom turns the White House into Mar-a-Lago with a nuclear hotline. That, you gotta admit, is political talent. It's like keeping 5-star Uber ratings while driving through mailboxes with the passengers in the trunk. Trump must be asking, what do I have to do to lose these people? Start another war? Raise gas prices again? Demolish all of the White House? He's run the full customer cancellation checklist, and 32% still refuse to unsubscribe. Must he visit every supporter and steal the child's piggy bank, then leave a tariff invoice? Trump promised winning. Instead, Americans got higher bills, another war, and a ballroom. You cannot buy groceries with a ballroom. You can't fill your gas tank with a ballroom. Unless your mortgage company accepts gold leaf chandeliers, you can't refinance with one either. Trump has stress-tested his base like luggage thrown from an airplane, and one-third still say, good news, the zipper held. Duane Keefe D. Davis was convicted of orchestrating Tupac Shakur's 1996 murder. Prosecutors relied heavily on his interviews, documentaries, and memoir. Police spent decades solving the case. Davis spent decades improving their search engine optimization. He put himself in the car, discussed the gun, and told the story repeatedly. Then his defense argued he made it up for money. That's a difficult brand pivot. Yes, I confess, but only because I'm an entrepreneur. So here is today's affirmation for aspiring murderers. After committing murder, I will not publish a memoir called Here Is Precisely How I Participated in the Murder. Do not add confess on podcast to your vision board either. Do not manifest a book tour. The first rule of criminal personal branding is stop building the prosecution's content library. Finally, some Gen Z men on TikTok are doing something called pheromone maxing. This involves skipping showers, shampoo, and deodorant because they believe their natural musk attracts women. Scientists say there's no evidence this works, but hey, what do scientists know? One dermatologist calls it bacteria maxing. But why stop at deodorant? Go full caveman. Skip the dentist. Black teeth say rugged. Stop cutting your hair. Stop washing your clothes. If you cut your leg, forget antibiotics. Nothing says masculine vitality like explaining gangrene on a first date. These men believe women secretly crave the natural aroma of an unwashed stranger. Mmm. Yes, that's why every homeless shelter is surrounded by supermodels whispering, please save some musk for the rest of us. Gentlemen, your body odor is not an invisible dating app. Soap is not suppressing your sexuality. My positive affirmation for pheromaxers is simple: I am worthy of love. I am confident. I am desirable. And I have met a bar of soap. I'm TJ Walker. This is Filtered. Ultimize.
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