Alexander Lorenzo assigns probabilities to three Bitcoin scenarios: 25% chance of a rally to $150,000, 40% chance of sideways movement until January-February 2027, and 35% chance of a correction to $30,000. He sees $50,000 as a key decision point and expects the upcoming halving to drive activity into early 2027.
Here's my 3 scenarios for Bitcoin right now. Okay, this is what I believe. It's like a little short-term Bitcoin price prediction. Do what you want. I believe there's a 25% chance that Bitcoin rallies to $150K. I do not believe that it's just fully over. It's completely dead. No, there is a chance. I do believe it because of the extended cycle theory. I believe more likely there's a 40% chance we chop sideways specifically into January 2027. Now, the reason why I picked January 2027, or the beginning of the year, January, February, is because of the momentum of the Bitcoin halving. So there's been all these theories being thrown around. But according to the Bitcoin halving, the top was exactly where it was supposed to be. So the extended cycle theory, although there is some validity to it, I still believe that the Bitcoin halving has a significant weight on the market. And so according to that data, the momentum will come back into the market. probably January, February. We did a whole 2-hour live Q&A on it. I'm not going to go into details exactly why. But I believe that that is the most likely scenario, a slightly bear market, sideways chopping until January, February. And then I also believe there's a 35% chance, which is more of a chance than going to $150K, a 35% chance that we have a full correction all the way down to $30K BTC. And the $50,000 price level for Bitcoin will decide if that plays out. Nobody knows for sure. Those are my probabilities. I'm adjusting accordingly. Small bear market, we're talking about what, 10, 11 months? And it's not even going to be that aggressive. Because we haven't had a peak euphoria phase, right, which is the weirdest thing we've ever experienced in crypto. Peak euphoria basically means a hype cycle. We didn't get an altcoin cycle. We didn't get a hype cycle. Because we haven't had that, then I'm arguing that we won't have such an aggressive bear market either. It could be sideways chopping, maybe slightly going down. But not super aggressive, because usually Bitcoin goes down like 95, crazy percentages, 90%. I don't think it's going to be like that, just sideways. And I think that's the most likely till January, February 2027.
