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7 Signs We're Officially In A Bear Market

18 Sept 2025 · 2 min

Watch on YouTube

1:55

In this YouTube commentary, the speaker outlines seven concrete indicators that signal the onset of an official crypto bear market. The first sign is altcoins beginning to outperform Bitcoin, a shift that the speaker notes has already occurred. The second sign is Bitcoin peaking while very small, high‑risk coins start to outcompete Ethereum, observable on TradingView. The third sign is excessive mainstream hype—Super Bowl ads, celebrity endorsements, and even uninformed relatives discussing crypto—indicating overexcitement. The fourth sign is the emergence of extremely tiny, high‑risk tokens that dominate market attention, a trend the speaker expects to accelerate after the anticipated passage of the Clarity Act in December. The fifth sign is a noticeable liquidity drain, measurable via total value locked (TVL) on DeFi Llama, which precedes a prolonged 1‑2‑year downward price trend. The sixth sign is the continuation of this downtrend, with the market staying bearish for an extended period. The final sign is the market bottom, typically triggered by a major news event—positive or negative—such as the collapse of the FTX exchange in the previous cycle. Throughout, the speaker emphasizes these signals as warning flags for investors.

Chapters

As soon as these 7 things happen, we will officially be in the crypto bear market. Step number 1, altcoins start to outcompete Bitcoin. Believe it or not, that just happened like a month ago. Step 2, Bitcoin tops out while small, very small coins start outcompeting Ethereum. So the really, really high-risk ones start to outcompete Ethereum. And you can actually see this by looking at others versus ETH on TradingView. Step 3, it gets way too overhyped. This is where you see Super Bowl commercials for cryptocurrency. This is where you see the biggest actors promoting cryptocurrency. And this is where you see your grandmother that knows nothing about Bitcoin start to talk about Bitcoin. Once you see overexcitement, that is a red flag to probably get out of the market. Step 4, you start seeing really small, really, really tiny, high-risk coins that really don't make any sense at all start to outcompete everything in the market. This is where we see max excitement. And I also believe that a lot of this stuff is probably going to happen a little bit after the Clarity Act is passed in December. So after that, we're going to start seeing crazy madness with altcoins. Step 5, after we see Bitcoin top and then we see all these coins start to go crazy, we should see all the coins start to fall and liquidity leave the market. You can look at liquidity by looking at TVL on DeFi Llama. Once you start seeing the liquidity drain, we should have about a year to 2 years of downward price action, the market going down, everybody believing that we're still in a bear market but getting wrecked the entire year. And then after that, step 7, we should have seen the bottom. And usually step 7 is with a major positive news event, like maybe something really great. Like last cycle, the bottom, the exact bottom, was FTX exchange going bankrupt. So it could be negative or positive, but a massive Crazy news event is like the exact bottom of the market most of the time from what we've seen.