In this solo market commentary, Alexander Lorenzo argues that altcoins are poised for a comeback, citing several macro and on‑chain signals. He references historical Bitcoin performance, noting that November and December have traditionally been very bullish months, though he cautions against short‑term timing. Lorenzo observes that rising interest rates have not hurt risk‑on assets, pointing to the S&P 500 still near its highs and a relatively low VIX, suggesting stable equity markets. He proposes that AI‑related capital may be rotating into crypto. On‑chain data from DeFi Llama shows total value locked (TVL) climbing, indicating improving liquidity in the altcoin space. He highlights that altcoin gains of around 87%—while not yet “altcoin season” levels—are strong signs of a market bottom and a potential double‑altcoin cycle. Overall, Lorenzo presents a cautiously optimistic outlook, emphasizing liquidity metrics and historical seasonality as positive indicators for a market rebound.
Chapters
Altcoins are coming back. I don't like getting specific on short-term time horizons. I think that's irrelevant, to be honest. I don't trade like that. Well, what I would say is, where's the line at? Here it is. If I'm not mistaken, I could be mistaken. I've ran numbers on December, November, like historical, historically, what, what does Bitcoin do on these months? And for what I remember, and I'm probably going to do this again, it's usually bullish as heck. So November, December is usually very bullish. Don't quote me on that, I need to run the numbers again. Um, so I don't know what is bearish, I guess, at this point. Like, what, interest rates went up? So did crypto, right? Interest rates going up is supposed to be bad for risk-on assets. It wasn't. So I want to take a look at the S&P 500. Is it still at all-time high or are we bleeding out? One of my theories is the AI Capital could be rotating into crypto. It's still at all-time high. It's fighting. It's still at all-time high. It's not that bad. Or it's not at all-time high, but it's like real below an all-time high. So this is a good sign. So stocks are not bleeding, crypto's not bleeding, both risk-on. Uh, but the VIX looks great. Increase of volatility would be a bad sign. So if we saw something like this, it would be like really bad. One more thing I want to look at is DeFi Llama. We're climbing back up. So TVL is total value locked in, um, in crypto, um, and we're making a comeback. It looks like we're making a comeback. So this is actually a really good sign. Total value locked is basically the liquidity inside of the crypto market, specifically like altcoins and stuff. So we didn't even— we're— I assumed that we were going to double this. We didn't even break it. So this kind of adds to the theory of a double altcoin cycle potentially. We didn't have anything. This was like a very weak altcoin cycle. So it looks like we're making our way back up. The liquidity in the market is very important. Liquidity market is very important. Altcoins are coming back. These percentages are really good signs. 87%, it's not altcoin season worthy, but I mean, you can't really complain with this, right? You can't. This is at the bottom of the market. This is like the tippy bottom of the market. People got to understand that, right? Bottom of the market. That's crazy to me. And altcoins are doing this, so it looks good. The future looks bright.
