Alexander Lorenzo breaks down three forces shaping crypto right now: the U.S. Clarity Act's effect on altcoin cycles, midterm election outcomes, and the Bitcoin halving. He sees near-term pressure but long-term upside, and recommends selling relief rallies to buy dips in beaten-down coins.
So here's my prediction on the crypto market. We just got off a 2-hour live Q&A, so this is from memory. So this is what I officially believe. Obviously, I've been talking about the Clarity Act, one of the most important variables in all of crypto. We didn't have a peak euphoria phase. We didn't have the hype cycle that we are all expecting, which is really weird because we had it every other cycle, but we didn't have it this cycle. And I think the main culprit for that is the fact that the Clarity Act didn't pass because this is altcoin regulation. Altcoins are specifically the reason why we have the hype cycle in the first place, right? It's usually always why it happens. So we didn't have the Clarity Act. It didn't pass. They delayed it, right? That killed the euphoria phase. Now, if you look at what's going on with the political timeline, midterm elections, November, okay? Beginning of November, that's when we'll know who is going to actually win the midterm elections. And if I've done a lot of research on this, a lot of research on this, And I've come to a conclusion that there's a really good chance, more than not, that the Republicans lose the House. This is very consistent throughout history. So if that's the case, that means that the Clarity Act is going to have even more resistance. So my official prediction specifically, so you guys get some specifics, is that the Clarity Act probably won't pass until early next year. If you combine that with predictions of the Bitcoin halving, well, it just so happens to be that early next year the Bitcoin halving will have that scarcity element that brings a whole bunch of buys to Bitcoin and it brings the Bitcoin momentum. So long story short, midterms decide the fate of the clarity. Midterms are not looking good for the Clarity Act because the Clarity Act is probably Trump's agenda. That won't happen probably till January 2027th. Okay, probably a little bit after that, probably more like January though, I would say beginning of the year. Now that is short-term bearish, long-term bullish. Now for the Bitcoin halving, same thing, short-term bearish, long-term bullish. Now we have specific strategies, a specific strategy that helps people turn a profit even though it's short-term bearish. And we talked about it extensively. I can give you a quick breakdown. Basically the way it goes is when we get a relief rally, you consolidate the portfolio, cut it down to bear market coins, and then take money off the table and accumulate on the way down. That's basically the strategy. Thank you for watching.
