Alexander Lorenzo presents a statistical model predicting Bitcoin's next cycle bottom around October 20, 2026, based on historical patterns between cycle tops and bottoms. He argues the Bitcoin halving is the most predictable driver of these cycles and expects a market rally toward the end of 2026.
This statistical model predicts October 20th, 2026 as the official date for the bottom. I personally believe we've already bottomed out in crypto, but let's go through it. It also says the momentum will return back in the market around November. I think it's very accurate, to be honest. To keep it extremely simple, the Bitcoin halving is the most predictable thing to call the tops and bottoms of Bitcoin's price. I know there's a lot of people that say things on the internet like liquidity Or all of these M2 monetary supply thing like, but it doesn't work in comparison to Bitcoins. Numbers are numbers, and it is foolproof. What I did is I took the tops and the bottoms. Those are the two red dots, and took the amount of days it took from the top to the bottom. But I did it for all the cycles: top, bottom. As you can see right here, 406 days. Literally took the amount of days for every single cycle, and then I basically ran statistical models to give me the next number in the sequence. Essentially trying to predict. The bottom of the next cycle, which is what we're currently in right now. It's most likely around October 20th, but it's giving us a window of September 19th to November 16th, 2026. Not only did I get the bottoms, but I got the part where the momentum kicked back in as well and did basically the same thing. The momentum kicked back in here, this green dot, same thing there, and then over there again. Predict the next number in the sequence, and this pretty much lines up with everything that I have been researching. Almost everything I've been researching pretty much which this seems true. I've been saying it for almost 8 months. We should see the market rally towards the end of the year, towards the end of 2026, and it's predicting it before I even said it.
