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July Is Bullish for Crypto

5 Jul 2025 · 1 min

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This content was created by Alexander Lorenzo. This content was uploaded by Alexander Lorenzo. This is a YouTube video titled "July Is Bullish for Crypto" (published 2025-07-05) containing a single-speaker market commentary about cryptocurrency and Bitcoin seasonality. The speaker compares crypto to the S&P 500 as risk-on assets with crypto acting as a higher "amplifier," describes an analysis using S&P 500 data back to 1941 and Bitcoin back to 2010, and combines them to assess monthly tendencies. Reported findings: July ~63.1% bullish, August ~44.6% (slightly bearish), September very bearish, October ~67% bullish, November similar to July, and December bullish. The speaker’s takeaway is that the end-of-year months look favorable for crypto and advises buying/holding rather than selling unless there is a very strong reason.

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It should be a bullish month for crypto and Bitcoin. The S&P 500 is considered a risk-on asset. People buy into stocks when risk is high, when people have a bigger risk appetite. They want to take more risk, they buy into stocks. Crypto is like the same thing, but there's a bigger amplifier, meaning— I don't know, hypothetical, not exact numbers— if S&P 500 goes up 10%, then cryptos could probably go up like 30%. It's a higher amplifier, but they're both considered risk-on assets. So what I did is I looked into the S&P 500 all the way back to 1941. And we looked at the month of July to see if it's bullish or bearish. So we looked throughout Bitcoin as well, all the way back to 2010. We looked at if it's bullish or bearish. I actually did it for every month to the end of the year. So we looked at the months and we combined them both. So we combined the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, averaged it out. Okay. And it seems like July is 63.1% bullish. August is probably a bearish month, but 50 is the middle, so it's not that bearish. It's 44.6. Now September is usually really, really, really bearish. October is a little bit more bullish than July at 67. November is kind of like July, and December is pretty bullish as well. It should be a bullish month for crypto and Bitcoin. And yeah, if you feel led, you could take a risk off the table in August and September, but in the world of cryptocurrency, we just buy more. Right? If you sell, you better have a good reason to sell, a really, really good reason to sell. So in this perspective, the next couple of months toward the end of the year is good.