In this YouTube monologue, a fund manager presents three hypothetical crypto portfolios generated by ChatGPT, explicitly stating they are not financial advice. He argues that holding Bitcoin or Solana at the current moment is unwise because the market is poised for an altcoin cycle and the risk‑reward profile is poor; Bitcoin’s recent 700% rise makes a further 75% dip likely. Instead, he recommends a position‑trading approach—holding assets for 2–3 years and exiting at the right time—rather than a buy‑and‑hold mindset. The core of the portfolio should be Ethereum, which he deems undervalued relative to Bitcoin and Solana, with a modest 5% allocation to XRP as a safer altcoin exposure. He advises against allocating to higher‑risk coins unless the allocation is small, and explicitly rejects Litecoin, Polkadot, Atom, and Uniswap, labeling them outdated or underperforming. He favors newer or higher‑potential projects such as Aerodrome, and notes that while Arbitrum is a solid layer‑2, it may be eclipsed by Base, so he would not hold it. A key pillar of his strategy is maintaining roughly 30% cash (dry powder) to avoid being fully invested, emphasizing that crypto markets can experience steep drops and that having cash enables buying at lows. The overarching philosophy is to never be all‑in, always keep cash on hand, and focus on buying the bottom rather than trying to time the top.
Chapters
So as a fund manager, I have a lot of people ask me about crypto, and one of the main questions is, can you tell me what to do with my portfolio? So I'm going to do some hypothetical portfolios generated with ChatGPT, so it's not financial advice, of what I would do specifically right now. Like literally right now, today's date is January 19th, on 3 different hypotheticals. First things first, I would not be holding Bitcoin right now. We're already up 700%. It could probably go to $150K to $170K, but right now what we're really waiting for is an altcoin cycle. So there's not really a good risk to reward right now. For Bitcoin specifically, in my opinion. And for the Bitcoin maximalists that say hold Bitcoin forever, they're mathematically wrong. Last cycle, Bitcoin dropped like 75%. I'm not holding a 75% dip. Investing right now is not for crypto. You should be position trading. Position trading is a way better strategy, holding for about 2 to 3 years, make money and get out. Why would you hold a 75% dip? It makes no sense. Nothing in the stock market dips 75%. So this whole Warren Buffett investor mentality doesn't really apply to crypto just yet. You'll make significantly more money if you get out the market at the right time. Solana, same thing. They had a Solana season. I would not be holding Solana or Bitcoin right now. Ethereum is extremely undervalued in comparison to Bitcoin and Solana. I think a 5% allocation to XRP is perfectly fine. Personally, I don't do that, but I think it's perfectly fine. And I think it's significantly better than Chainlink or Avalanche. Avalanche is a smart contract platform. Ethereum already won that game. It'll probably do well, but I personally invest in higher risk coins. And these are like that weird gray area. There's like a weird gray area where like people think that it's an altcoin, but it's like this is going to move like almost equivalent to Ethereum, probably a little bit better than Ethereum. But it's just the risk to reward is not there. If you're going to buy something that's not ETH, you need to go higher risk with smaller allocations. That is the whole point of crypto— high risk, high reward. Why are you trying to— like, it doesn't make any sense. I would probably say the same thing here— get rid of Bitcoin. 30% cash is really good right now in my opinion. I think that's actually smooth right now specifically because the market could be like a little bit— you can go down a little bit. We don't know for sure exactly what's going to happen, but Always having dry powder and never being all in the market is a good practice. Okay, so I'll definitely burn the Litecoin. I'm not even going to give you an explanation. That thing is old and archaic. Same thing with Polkadot. Do you know Polkadot was one of the worst producing top coins last cycle? Burn. Atom is out of date. Uniswap is—I just wouldn't hold it. I don't like exchange currencies. Like this is a decentralized exchange currency. I don't like them unless they're new or unless like they're the best. Like I would rather hold Aerodrome instead of Uniswap. And when it comes to Arbitrum, it's great, it's fine, it's not that big of a deal. It's a layer 2, the second, second or third biggest layer 2, or whatever the case is. But they're gonna lose to Base, so I probably wouldn't— I probably wouldn't be holding Arbitrum either. Now this last one here has no cash. If you're all in the market, you're probably gambling. That's not the thing to do, okay? You always want to have dry powder when it comes to crypto trading. You want to expect the unexpected. And what we know is that this thing drops. When it drops, it drops. And the whole point of it is to buy low, like I always told people this, it's much easier to buy the bottom than it is to sell the top. If you just do that one thing right, which is buy the bottom and have cash for any event, everything else becomes easier. It's the one problem that solves all the problems. So just never be all in in the market. Never. I don't even care if the market's going up. Never be all in. Always have dry powder.
