Alexander LorenzoCoinPicks, CoinPicks · Founder & Chief Investment Officer CoinPicks Capital 👇🏾This strategy made me 8 million dollars

There’s a 70% Chance Bitcoin Hits $100,000 By The End of the Year

2 Oct 2026 · 2 min

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1:42

In this YouTube monologue, Alexander Lorenzo asserts a roughly 70% probability that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 by the end of 2026. He explains that many of his previously underwater positions are now profitable and plans to recalibrate his portfolio with a large “sweep” into coins he expects to outperform in the upcoming cycle. Lorenzo believes the market is near its bottom (85‑90% confidence) and does not anticipate a significant pullback, though sideways movement is possible. He forecasts a major bull run accelerating in January‑February 2027, driven largely by an anticipated regulatory readout that he sees as a catalyst. Throughout, he emphasizes specific probability figures and timelines while urging viewers to consider his strategic positioning.

Chapters

There's a 70% chance that we go to 100K BTC by the end of the year. So it's getting really, really, really bullish, right? So a lot of my positions that I was underwater with are now in profit. Not all of them, but a lot of them. So for right now, what I feel like I'm probably going to be doing very soon is recalibrating my portfolio, doing like a big sweep. I want to do a big sweep And what I want to do, uh, specifically is get the coins that are likely to do well this cycle. So in my mind, if you guys don't know, I'm like 85%, 90% thinking that this is the bottom. So if so, I don't think— I don't believe we could, but I, I, I'd be— either way it'll be fine, but I don't believe we'll have a pullback to here. I think we're good. We could trade sideways for a while. It could come down a little bit, but other than that, I believe we're good to go for the bull run. Um, and it's gonna really pick up January, February of next year. I really do. It's going to get really crazy January, February of next year, okay? With a readout regulation. I told you guys, with a readout regulation, this is going to happen, and it looks like it's playing out. So in my opinion, I put out a reel, I believe it. I believe there's a 70% chance there's a 70% chance that we go to $100K BTC by the end of the year. So these are very specific numbers. I'm not like 100% accurate, but you cannot say I'm not giving you guys specific stuff. So I'm giving you specific stuff. I believe there's a 70% chance that we get to this $100K BTC by the end of the year, which is right here. This is the end of the year.