Alexander Lorenzo argues the Bitcoin halving, not Canada's Clarity Act, drives crypto markets. Major news like ETF approvals amplifies gains when timed near a halving but triggers selloffs when far from it. He calls the halving chart crypto's most important analytical tool.
The Clarity Act is new and it doesn't really move the market. I think that's clear at this point. It is important and I believe it would have moved the market and would have been extremely significant. But the one thing that we know for a fact that's extremely significant and that's consistent is the Bitcoin halving. So I don't need the Clarity Act to pass. It is not on my radar anymore. The Bitcoin halving is the most predictable cycle in cryptocurrency history. So I feel bad for people that run debt markets. It's very clear that people saw the Clarity Act as like the most significant thing ever. So what they could do is they can push it again, start hyping it up. It actually does pass, but they do that closer to the top of the market. They could definitely do that. I wouldn't be surprised. Just remember, super, super positive news, like the best of the best, not like a little best. Like when I mean important, I mean the cream of the crop stuff like Trump coming into office or something like, for example, I think 2 cycles ago, it was the first time we had a derivatives Bitcoin exchange. Like crazy important events. That was the top of the market. It was the top of the market the first time we ever had, I believe it was derivatives or perpetuals, something like that. So the first time we can leverage Bitcoin ever was the top of the market. And it can kind of work in reverse. It's not always perfect like that. It depends on the timing in the market. So for example, to give you a counterargument, the spot ETF actually led to the bull market, right? So what we do is we look within, if you don't know the Bitcoin halving, you need to write it down. We have stuff that we have so many resources on the Bitcoin halving. It's the most important chart in all of crypto, and they try to diminish it. But within the Bitcoin halving, depending on where we're at in the Bitcoin halving, right, if it's a super bullish piece of news close to the Bitcoin halving, it could lead to the market going up. If it's far from the Bitcoin halving, meaning it's like the dead zone, then usually that will lead to an exit liquidity event.
