Timing the market is a losing game. The NASDAQ gained 34% annually, but 80% of those returns came in just 20% of the trading days. Spread-betting firms and brokers profit when you trade constantly, so they push you to move even though the odds are against you.
Market. Oh, Bitcoin will come to. So there we are on the markets. That's the past year. Did I know NASDAQ was going to go up 34%? I don't think I did. I don't think I ever said that anywhere, that we're going to go up 34%. Okay, do I think the S&P was going to go up that much? I did often say it. Why? It's just statistics that when you've had a couple of good years, it tends to happen. Now I'm going to show you something shocking. I don't predict the markets. In case you think I forecast and predict, I don't. I tell you what I forecast and predict, and I guarantee you this would happen. See that? That's 7 months of 0% returns in the NASDAQ. Hang on, the NASDAQ went up 34%, but for 7 months, 0%. You see these periods when it went up? Okay, I wanna show you something else. That's a period of decline. That's a period of decline. Declines cause panic, sideways cause boredom. Panic and boredom cause you to miss the 20% of the time when the market goes up. The returns, 80% of the returns come from 20% of the time. That's why timing's so difficult because You're not timing, is it going to be heads or tails, 50/50? You're timing, am I in the right 20% of the period? Because 80% of the time, you're going to be in the wrong, you're going to be out if you're trying to time because it only goes up 20% of the time. And you're going to get panic and bored. Do you see why there's a lot of pilot error when people try and trade? Guess who wants you to trade? Spread betting firms. Spread betting firms want you to trade. Ladbrokes want you to trade. Every single subscription vendor, whether it's brokers or— because they get commission if you trade, or newsletter vendors want you to trade. Because they get commissions every single time, or they get you to pay subscriptions. They want you to be overactive.
