India's team gold at the Women's Chess Olympiad requires three unlikely results in the final round. But Savita Shree has nearly guaranteed individual gold on board 5 with an 8.5/9 score, even if she loses her last game.
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So India is guaranteed at least one gold medal in Chess Olympiad. But that sounds surprising because still final round has to be played and our Indian women team is two match points behind China. So where is this gold coming from? So let's go through the complete picture. In women's section, China leads with 18 match points. Kazakhstan has 17. India, Poland, and Vietnam have 16 each. India is facing Georgia. China is taking on Vietnam, and Poland is playing Kazakhstan. For India to win the team gold, three results are essential. First, India must beat Georgia. Second and third, Vietnam should beat China, and Kazakhstan should lose to Poland. But let's assume all the three conditions goes into our favor. The gold would still depend on tiebreaks because those results would leave four teams on eighteen match points, and their final position would depend on results across the tournament. So India's team gold hopes are still alive, but the probability is very low. But there is another gold race where India is at much stronger position. And the player at the center of it is Savita Shree. She has 8 wins, 1 draw, 8.5 points out of 9 games. In round 10, her victory over China's Zhai Mo helped India hold the tournament leaders to a 2-2 draw. Savita now enters the final round as the overwhelming favorite for the individual board 5 gold. But here is an important calculation. Savita's closest challenger is from Vietnam. And if she wins her game tomorrow, and in worst scenario Savita lost her final game, still the performance rating of Savita will be higher and she will finish first at the 5th board. But in a best scenario, a draw or a win for Savita will secure a gold medal for her. The published numbers put Savita firmly ahead, but we will wait for the final standings before celebrating. But to be honest, what an extraordinary tournament she had.
