In this October 2023 market update, real‑estate professional Austin Klar explains why Marin County home prices kept rising despite mortgage rates briefly topping 8%. He outlines the core supply‑and‑demand dynamics, noting that monthly inventory supply fell from 2.3 to 1.9 months—well below the 4‑6 month range that signals a neutral market—indicating a strong seller’s market. Although homes stayed on the market slightly longer (28 days vs. 23 days in September), they continued to sell at or near asking price, with average sale price climbing from just over $2 million to over $2.1 million and price per square foot rising from $907 to above $1,000. Transaction activity remained robust, with pending sales increasing from 146 to 161 and closed sales from 121 to 148, while overall inventory stayed flat. A notable drop in new listings (about 50%) is attributed to seasonal slowdown and sellers’ reluctance to trade low‑rate mortgages for higher‑rate financing. Klar leverages his background as a Bay Area lawyer‑turned‑real‑estate agent and developer to position himself as a knowledgeable resource, inviting viewers to contact him for personalized assistance and to subscribe for future updates.
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Even in the face of extremely high mortgage rates, Marin County home prices continued their upward trajectory because of low supply in relation to demand, and every sign points to continued demand for housing that will keep prices elevated. And in this video, I'm gonna break down everything that happened in the Marin County housing market in October so that you have some context for what you're seeing and can stay on top of the market. What's up everyone? This is Austin Klar, your lawyer turned real estate agent and real estate developer in San Francisco and Marin County. I've been a Bay Area resident for over a decade, giving the in-depth, firsthand knowledge of what it's like to live and work there. If you're thinking about relocating or want more information about the housing market, definitely reach out to me. My contact information's in the description below. I will personally answer every call, every email, every text, and I'd be more than happy to help you. And if you like videos just like this, please subscribe to my channel and don't forget to click the bell so you're alerted every single time I post a video. All right, so this video is all about what happened in the Marin County housing market last month, October 2023. And like any functioning economic market, the Marin housing market starts with a discussion of supply and demand. In October, interest rates breached the 8% level for a brief period of time, and even though we saw that, the monthly supply of inventory in Marin County actually fell. What is monthly supply? It's a way to measure the speed at which existing housing inventory is getting sold. Basically, if no new homes came to market, how long would it take to sell out, out of all existing homes that were available? And in October, monthly supply dropped from 2.3 months to 1.9 months. So it'll take less than 2 months to sell out of all existing inventory. For context, a neutral market is somewhere between 4 or 5 to 6 months. Sellers market below that, buyers market above that. So this is very firmly in sellers market territory. It means there are a lot more buyers competing for the minimal amount of homes that are available on the market. Now, even though supply dropped, we actually saw homes stay on the market a little bit longer than we did in September. Homes stayed on the market for about 28 days compared to about 23 days in the month prior. This is typical, something that we see in Marin in October a lot, and in a lot of other suburbs across the nation. Um, less people tend to buy homes the closer you get to the holidays, so things tend to slow down and stay on the market for longer, even though we had less supply on the market. And how can we tell there's still a lot of demand for homes in Marin County? As you can see by this green line, homes sold on average for their ask price. That trend is a little bit lower than what we saw last month, where homes sold just a little bit over ask, 1% over ask. Homes are still getting their ask price on average in Marin. Now, even though it seems like demand was a little bit weaker from a days on market standpoint with things selling in a little bit longer time, and you know, how much compared to list price sellers received, prices show that there's still very robust demand for housing because all metrics for prices pointed up. As you can see with the red line at the bottom, the average sale price rose from a little bit over $2 million to over $2.1 million, up significantly from last winter when homes were selling for under $2 million. And price per foot also rose from $907 to over $1,000 a foot, and again, well above last winter when they sold in the $835 range. And even though interest rates rose, we didn't see a huge dip in transaction activity generally. Pending sales increased from 146 to 161. Um, closed sales also rose from 121 to 148. And the amount of inventory actively on the market was basically flat. What is particularly noticeable here though is the dip in new listings. This is both a result of seasonality. You could see the same thing happen last year. Less people sell their homes in October, and you're going to start seeing the same thing in November and December because people just aren't selling their homes in the holidays unless they really have to. It's also because of the rise in interest rates we saw last month. Remember, most sellers are also buyers. They don't want to exchange their, you know, super cheap, you know, 3%, 4% mortgages for 7% or 8% mortgages. And we actually crossed 8% briefly in October last month. And what we've seen is that when rates jump up relatively quickly, sellers pull back. They don't want to sell their homes unless they absolutely have to because they know it's going to be more expensive to buy something else. So that's partly why we got such a huge drop, about 50% drop in new listings, as you can see by that blue line last month. So there you have it. That's what happened in the Marin County single-family home market last month. If you're thinking of relocating or want more information about the market, definitely reach out to me. My contact information is in the description below. I will personally answer every call, every email, every text, and I'll be more than happy to help you. And if you like videos just like this, please subscribe to my channel and don't forget to click the bell so you're alerted every single time I post a video.
