Panic at the Hype Cycle

There's an implied question that many people have when they hear about the latest trend. When the headlines scream about a new technology or a new buzzword, do we need to panic about this latest trend? The headlines are screaming about it, should we? There are 2 typical responses. One is that somebody does press that panic button, and the other, which I've actually seen, is people close their eyes, close their ears, and completely ignore the situation Hoping that it will just go away. So what is the futures thinking approach to this? Let me introduce you to the roller coaster. This is the Gartner Hype Cycle. It starts when something is triggered, something happens. It could be a new technology or some other fundamental change that shifts everything in a society or in an industry. The roller coaster goes up, People start getting anxious or hopeful. And right at the top, we are at the peak of inflated expectations. They could be good expectations or bad expectations, but we really believe that this will fundamentally change everything. But then our rollercoaster goes plunging down into this trough of disillusionment. Do you have any idea how much anxiety I have spelling in public? In the trough of disillusionment, people start abandoning this technology. They don't believe that it has any value. They can't see what they're supposed to— how they're supposed to respond. If money has been invested and people have been employed during this peak, then there's a whole adjustment period where projects are offloaded and people are retrenched. But after that trough, the people who stay around discover something interesting. This is the slope of enlightenment. The people who hang around during this period discover what this technology or what this change can actually deliver. They work out how to integrate it into their workflow, into their business or products, and eventually they reach this plateau of productivity. And this is where the real benefit is experienced. So what is that benefit? Well, the first is it gives you understanding of where a technology is in its maturity cycle and how it could apply to your organization and how best to use that timing to work. And it also means as you explore this Gartner hype cycle that you don't get caught up with mob mentality. As others get caught up with artificial intelligence and blockchain and quantum computing, you've made some clear decisions. I'm Charlotte Kemp, and I would love to have the conversation with you and your team about how you are experiencing this Gartner hype cycle and how you can prepare your own thinking to be fit for the future.