In this two‑minute video Charlotte Kemp clarifies the terminology around change dynamics, distinguishing fads (short‑lived hype like a fidget spinner or TikTok dance) from genuine trends that affect industries or regions. She explains that social‑media “trending topics” are essentially fads. Kemp then introduces the STEEP/PESSEL framework—political, economic, social, technological, legislative, and environmental drivers—as the root causes of trends. Building on these drivers, she defines megatrends as large‑scale, driver‑derived shifts (e.g., remote work, AI adoption, demographic changes) with far‑reaching implications. The importance of context is emphasized: a trend in one hemisphere or country may be irrelevant elsewhere. Kemp also highlights counter‑trends—deliberately moving opposite to the dominant direction—to carve niche opportunities, illustrating this by hand‑drawing crude illustrations to show that futures thinking can be simple and non‑technological. She positions herself as a guide to help viewers develop future‑ready thinking.
Chapters
Do you want to learn all about trends in under 2 minutes? The first thing we need to do is separate out some of the terminology. For example, trends are often confused with fads. A fad is like a fidget spinner. We didn't know about it yesterday, today it's all the rage, and by the weekend it's going to be old news. Then we have actual trends that we're exploring that could be related to our industry, our part of the world, or the work that we do. Social media also talks about trending topics all the time, but those trending topics are very much like fads. It's a TikTok dance or the latest AI gimmick. Then we need to explore the actual drivers of change. We normally refer to them either as STEEP or as PESSEL drivers, hence the funny little drawing. PESSEL stands for politics, economics, social, technological legislation, and environmental drivers of change. These are the big causes behind the trends that we're looking at. There may also be megatrends. A megatrend is the consequence of a driver of change. It could be more people working from home or more people using computers, more people using artificial intelligence, or in this case, the actual demographics of a country. It's driven by these personal drivers, but it has huge implications for that particular country. One of the most important issues to remember when talking about trends is that of context. What is a trend in the Northern Hemisphere might not be in the Southern Hemisphere. It may apply in one country but be irrelevant in another country. Context is essential in working out how any of these trends actually apply to you, your business, the company that you work for, or your industry. And then the thing I'm most interested in is that of counter-trends. We know what they are. If they go low, we go high. If everybody is going in one direction and you don't like that direction, you can actually choose to go in the opposite direction. Once you understand enough about the trends and you see where everyone is moving, then you can define your business, your product, your offering to the exact opposite audience. As an example, while technology, Canva, artificial intelligence allow us to have really slick presentations, you have to watch me hand draw really poorly. My little illustrations because I want to demonstrate a counter-trend. I want to demonstrate that this can be easy to understand, that we can have a conversation about a futures topic on a single page, and that not everything has to be reduced to technology. As an example, while technology, Canva, and artificial intelligence allow us to have really slick presentations, you have to watch me hand draw, not very well, my little illustrations. But I want to demonstrate that futures thinking isn't complicated, that it's not all technological, and that we can actually explain it on a single piece of paper. I'm Charlotte Kemp. I'm not a great artist, but I can help you to develop your thinking fit for the future.
