Chris Koerner analyzes a business that offers a $10,000 prize for a hole-in-one on a 110-yard floating golf green. Using amateur hole-in-one odds and reported payout frequency, he estimates annual plays, revenue (~$650k), and net profit (~$200k–$300k), and suggests the concept is a scalable, math-backed business opportunity.
$10,000
110 yards
Once every two weeks on average (≈26 times per year)
1 in 12,000
1 in 20,000 (his estimate)
Look at this freaking thing right here. What a brilliant business idea. They will pay you $10,000 if you get a hole in one on their 110 yard floating green. And they pay people out once every two weeks on average. I'm going to use statistics to break down how much profit this business makes and then I'll tell you how you can copy it. So an amateur Golfer has a 1 in 12,000 chance of making a hole in one on a par three like this one. And this company has said that they pay out $10,000 every two weeks, which means they have 26 hole in ones every year. So if you take 12,000 tries multiplied by 26 hole in ones per year, you get over 330,000 balls hit per year. But that 1 in 12,000 number is for an amateur golfer, not a casual golfer, which most of their customers are. I would bet it's more like 1 in 20,000. And if the average customer hits 20 balls for about 20 bucks, it means their top line revenue is about 650 grand. And this place is making a net profit of 2 to $300,000 per year. These should be all over America. All you need is a wooden kiosk at floating tea and some permission. Why not start a business where math is on your side? It's better than topgolf. What do you have to lose? Full details here.
