In this solo video, Chris Prefontaine explains that Redfin data from July 2026 shows a dramatic buyer‑seller imbalance in the U.S. real‑estate market: roughly 967 000 active buyers versus about 1.5 million sellers, meaning sellers outnumber buyers by more than 50 %. He attributes the buyer shortage to affordability pressures, high mortgage rates, stricter underwriting, and economic uncertainty, emphasizing that the problem is a lack of qualified buyers, not a lack of homes. Prefontaine argues that this gap creates a powerful negotiating advantage for creative investors who can bypass traditional bank financing. He outlines alternative deal structures—owner financing, taking over existing payments (subject‑to), lease‑purchase agreements, and other term‑based solutions—that give sellers what they need while allowing investors to secure deals without competing on price alone. He notes that 80 % of major metros are still classified as buyer markets, but local pockets vary, so investors must look at specific seller motivations. Prefontaine cautions against the “price‑only” mindset common among wholesalers and flippers, urging a shift toward solving the seller’s underlying transaction obstacles with creative financing. He concludes with a concrete action item: review your pipeline, identify why sellers haven’t closed conventional deals, and position yourself as the bridge that offers term‑based solutions, thereby capitalizing on the current market environment.
Chapters
All right, the buyer-seller gap just got huge. Here's what it means for creative investors. July 2026, this came from Redfin. They estimated that there were only about 967,000 active buyers, under a million, in the entire United States. Now, who cares, you might think, right? Hear me out. 2013, this would be the lowest since then that this number even approached that low, like under a million. They started tracking this data all the way back then. That's a long time, guys, like 13 years or so. Meanwhile, there were approximately 1.5, just under 1.5 million sellers. Okay, so think about that. Sellers outnumber buyers by more than 51%. And if you're in creative real estate, that should get you juiced, totally get your attention big time. Now, why do I say that? Well, think about this, because this isn't a lack of houses problem. It's a buyer problem now. It's changed, right? Buyers have been getting squeezed, sadly, for a long time. Affordability, mortgage rates, qualification hoops they have to jump through, monthly payments, uncertainty in the economy. So conventional buyers disappear. Like more and more they disappear. But the sellers don't magically disappear with them, right? So what do you think this is causing? Think about this for a second. Their houses are still sitting there. Those numbers are astronomical. Their situation still exists. Their reason for wanting to move still exists. They might just be losing hope, but it still exists. And then that creates the gap, right? I talk about the gap in a lot of different ways, but this creates a buyer-seller gap. Now here's where it gets real interesting. Think about this for you. Think about a conventional seller. Conventional. They list the property, they need a buyer. That buyer typically needs financing, they bring that new financing to the closing table, right? That financing has guidelines, doesn't it? Credit, debt-to-income, down payment, appraisal, qualification, on and on, right? The buyer dilemma. Financing dilemma, I should say. When fewer buyers can get through that funnel that I explained, the seller has fewer options, right? So if we're talking conventional real estate only, but in our world, that friction kind of creates an opportunity because we can say, hey, what if we don't have to solve this using the bank's rules? That's what I love about it. So I don't use banks. What if the seller could get their price But we just change the terms up a bit. So many of them don't know this, by the way. That's why you, you are the guide, the authority. What if we take over an existing payment, for example? What if the seller becomes the bank, owner financing? What if we use a lease purchase? I'm just scratching the surface with our main ways, but now you've actually changed the entire conversation with the seller. Okay, think about that. Many, many, many don't know about it. Here's another one for you to sort of digest. Redfin categorized 39 out of 49 major metros they analyzed as buyer markets. That's 80%, just to put that other math to a little bit market-driven. And only 6 markets— I was telling my wife this— were seller markets. Now, does that mean every neighborhood, every price range, every property is the exact same scenario? No, of course not. I'm just giving you general stats, and I yanked them from there so you knew they weren't just pulled out of thin air. Real estate's local for you. You'll never hear me generalize saying the market, right? Because there's pockets everywhere. The market's different in different geographic pockets. But directionally, these stats matter. They should matter to you. This message is like screaming loudly, screaming loudly that More sellers, fewer buyers. More negotiating leverage is what it means. For who? You. And here's where I want you to sort of be challenged a little bit. Think about this. Don't get caught hearing buyer's market and think, oh great, this is what like wholesales and flip is. Oh great, now I can beat up the sellers on price. So many niches are predatory like that, and so that's their knee-jerk, right? That's complete amateur thinking in my opinion. Instead, I suggest you think more along the lines of, at least in our world, more along the lines of how can I give the seller more of what they want in exchange for better terms, right? Because if I can get a long, long term, I really don't care what I pay for price, and you shouldn't either once you understand it. So maybe I can pay closer to the price, maybe I can give them monthly income if that's what they want, maybe I can relieve them of an existing payment that they thought, oh man, I can't sell now for what I owe even. If I can take control subject to, I can do that because I'm not dumping money in it. And if it's a lease purchase, I wouldn't put money down anyway, only if I buy. But the point is you can be very, very choosy here with the sellers. See, that's just structuring. Price is only one of your levers, and most investors know how to move that lever. They have that 60% or 70% formula and that's all they know. So you've got fewer buyers, you've got sellers who are sitting a lot longer. Every REIA would tell you that, the REIA meetings. You've got agents looking for solutions, and you've got investors standing on the sidelines saying, well, I'm just waiting for the market to get better. Better doesn't really happen. This is the best, the best, by the way, market for what we do. The best. I'm talking in the creative world in 35 years of doing this. Crazy, but that's the part people are missing. They're missing that totally in this market. This market didn't eliminate deals. It created more need for somebody who knows how to structure the right deal. Again, big difference. So here's your action item for this week. Look at your pipeline a little differently now, your funnel, your lead system. Don't just ask, how cheap can I buy the house? I'm encouraging you to do this even if you're a wholesaler or a flipper. Learn what we do because you're going to have so many more deals on your plate. Think about Why hasn't the seller gotten where they want yet? Like, what's stopping the conventional transaction? And then solve for that. Is there a term solution sitting right in front of us that the seller can't see because buyers are just disappearing on them? See, sellers still need that. Remember how I opened this? Sellers still need solutions, and creative financing sits right in the middle of that gap. So learn to be the bridge, learn to fill in that gap, and let's get after it together.
