Ethan Khoza argues that most players ranked No.1 in U.S. high school basketball classes (2001–2014) do not become NBA All-Stars: only 4 of 14 reached All-Star status and only one since 2005. He attributes this to the exceptional standard of the NBA, variability in individual development after high school (late bloomers catch up), and limitations/overemphasis of high-school recruiting rankings. The transcript enumerates the #1 recruits (2001–2014), cites counterexamples of overlooked future stars, and concludes rankings are poor long-term predictors.
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Here's an interesting fact for you. If you look at the high school recruiting classes from 2001 through 2014 and look at the number one player in each of those classes. Only four of the 14 classes had a number one player who would go on to become an NBA All Star. And get this, since 2005, only one number one ranked player has gone on to become an NBA All Star. Doesn't this sound weird to you? Why is it that the player who's ranked as the most talented player in the country as a high school senior will more often than not fades out and becomes average or below average by the time they get to the NBA? Let me explain to you why most number one ranked high school players don't become NBA stars. What's up, guys? Ethan here today I wanted to talk about why most number one high school players don't become NBA stars. Now, I was sitting around and I was actually taking a look at the 2019 basketball class just to see who was ranked where. And that got me looking back on some of the prior draft classes that we've seen. And I started to realize that a lot of these guys who are ranked number one as high schoolers really ended up being average or below average in the NBA. Oftentimes they were even out of the league after a little bit. So it got me wondering, why is it that guys who are ranked as the best player in the country as high schoolers often don't even become NBA All Stars and sometimes not even NBA starters? So I decided to take a deeper look and bring this to you guys to kind of explain why this phenomenon happens. First, let me list off Every single number one prospect since the 2001 high school recruiting class to the 2014 recruiting class. 2001 Eddie Curry.
2006, Greg Oden. Definitely not an All Star. 2007, Eric Gordon.
Not an All Star.
2008, Brandon Jennings.
Not an All Star.
2009, Derrick Favors.
Not an All Star.
2010 Harrison Barnes.
Not an All Star.
2011 Anthony Davis.
He was an All Star.
2012 Merlins Noel.
Not an All Star.
2013 Andrew Wiggins.
Not an All Star.
And 2014, Jahlil Okafor.
Also not an All Star.
So why is it that only a quarter of these guys who were stars in high school went on to become Stars in the NBA as well. Well, let's take a look at it. The first reason that a lot of these guys who were number one players in high school aren't NBA stars Is because it goes to show just how great NBA players are. The fact that you can dominate every single level that you play on in life until you get to the NBA just goes to show that the NBA is a complet different form of basketball from anywhere else. A lot of times these recruits are ranked number one overall because of their significantly advanced physical traits such as size or athleticism. But when you get to the NBA, everybody is big and everybody is athletic, aside from a few exceptions who do something else significantly well to compensate. Usually by the time these guys who are ranked number one get to college, they're still light years ahead of almost everybody else physically. But of course, only the top 3% of college players even play a minute in the NBA. Almost every single one of those guys was dominant in high school. And almost every single one of those guys is an athletic freak as well. But we already know that the NBA is great. We already know that there's a ton of players who are really good at basketball and a lot of guys who can jump high and are big. So what's the real reason for this? Why is it that guys who are bigger, faster, stronger than everybody in high school aren't like that when they get to the NBA anymore? Well, I think that this shows that the most important development that happens for basketball players happens after high school. Like I said, most of the time, these guys who are number one players are ahead of everybody else in their class physically, and they just are able to dominate strictly because they're more advanced than other guys. However, a lot of guys will go into college ranked lower or even not ranked because they need a year or two to develop and grow into their bodies and become physical freaks. Many guys will enter college as average players and will leave as significantly better players because they had two years to develop. In fact, let's think of it this way. Take yourself now. If you've graduated high school and you're a few years removed from that, Think about yourself back then compared to now. How much better are you at life in general? Probably a lot better. In fact, I bet if we took everybody who's watching this video right now and we sat them in a room and we looked at where they were five years ago and where they are now, we'd see that everybody develops at a different rate. Some people five years ago might be in the exact same spot that they are now. And some guys five years ago might be light years ahead of where they were then. It's the same way in basketball. In fact, sports are really the only profession that we place a significant relevance on how good somebody was when they were 16 or 17 years old. In every single other profession, the only thing that people care about is your ability to do the job right now. Nobody cares if you were the best accounting prospect in the country when you were a junior in high school. They just want to know, can you crunch the numbers? Now when you hear me say it that way, it kind of makes ranking kids that age for basketball sound kind of like a waste of time as well, because you never know how a kid is going to develop. That said, rankings can certainly help for college recruiting, but again, high school success certainly does not guarantee college success. There are plenty of guys who weren't ranked as high school players who would outperform even their ESPN top 100 classmates every single year in college basketball. Let's take a look at a couple guys here. Steph Curry, Jimmy Friedett, Damian Lillard, Kenneth Farid, George Hill, Courtney lee, Isaiah Thomas, CJ McCollum, Russell Westbrook, Gordon Hayward and Paul George. We certainly have a lot more all stars there than we do compared to the list of guys who were number one recruits in high school. But why is this, why is it that a lot of these number one guys can't even hang at all with these guys who are two and three star players? Well, it comes down to the fact that most of these guys were just unproven. What it comes down to is they didn't get the same exposure that they needed to be properly recognized in high school. And others, like I said before, just weren't develop developed enough to be stars at that age. Take Russell Westbrook, for example. If you know about Russell Westbrook's story, then you know that he had a growth spurt in high school in his senior year that took him from 5, 10 to 6, 3. And in fact, despite how explosive Russell Westbrook is now and the amazing dunks that we see from him, he didn't even dunk a basketball until he was a senior in high school. Can you imagine that you have guys who are ranked who are dunking the ball in sixth, seventh grade. And here we go with Russell Westbrook, the most explosive guard in the NBA who didn't dunk a ball till his senior year of high school. So as you can see, development at different stages for everybody. And although a guy may be super advanced as a high schooler. A guy like Russell Westbrook will catch up to him because he does his development later on. This also calls up to question how good exactly are our recruiting services? For example, how is a guy who is now a perennial all NBA player in Damian Lillard ranked at the two star recruit in high school? If guys like this are able to be overlooked that badly, then why do we put so much emphasis on rankings in the first place? How many guys did I just list that squeeze through the crack? And just because they don't have a number next to their name, they get overlooked by not just recruiting services, but by colleges, by the media and by the fan. And this comes down to my main point. I think in most years, barring years that they have, LeBron James or Dwight Howard is the number one overall high school prospect. Most of the time. The guy who's ranked number one really isn't the best player in his class. He may get a combination of the most exposure and he may be the most athletic or the biggest. But that doesn't mean he's actually the best player in his class. The best player in that class really could be anywhere. He could be the 21 ranked player, or the 72 ranked player, or the 372 ranked player. @ the end of the day, the recruiting pool is way too big to tell who the best player truly is until years down the road. When we look at rankings, less attention should be paid to the number they are given because those numbers are completely irrelevant in the long run. Even in sports like football, future college superstars like Baker Mayfield and Johnny Manziel were unranked coming into college. High school recruiting rankings mean next to nothing when it comes to who will truly end up being the best. Nothing is guaranteed even if you have potential to be great. There are unranked guys who were consistently overlooked who will pass up these top guys every single year. And that's what I think it comes down to. The reason that the number one high school player often doesn't become an NBA star is because more often than not they aren't truly the best player in their class. Those are my reasons why most number one ranked high school players don't become NBA stars. Let me know what you guys think. Let me know if you guys agree with this and comment down below what you want to see next. Make sure to like and subscribe and share this video as well. Check me out on Instagram at Ethancoza and my NBA page, NBAUUniversal. Those are both linked in the description and check out my website and my Facebook as well. Both those in the description. Also, I'll be back at you guys with another video soon. Peace.
