Why You Feel Lost in Games — And How to Fix It

Ethan Khoza breaks down how elite basketball players stay ahead by recognizing patterns and anticipating what's coming. He covers the advantages to hunt (momentum mismatches, size gaps), decision-making rules like "0.5 decisions" on catch, and habits like studying opponents and pre-planning counters to common defenses.
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When you look at the best players in the world at every level, the one thing that they all have in common is it almost feels like they're a step ahead of everybody else. The best players aren't just playing the game, they're anticipating the game. And the skill of anticipation is maybe the most important skill that you need to have if you want to be a high level player. And if you want to become that player that's a step ahead of everybody else. You're making smarter decisions, you're creating and making easier shots, and the game just feels way more natural and simple for you. Then you need to become that player who can see the game a play ahead of everybody else. And right now I'm going to break down exactly how you can do that and make sure you stick around to the end, because there's some points that I'm going to talk about that you probably have never heard before, never thought about before, and it's going to change the game for you. When we look at players who see the game a step ahead, or who can anticipate at a really high level offensively, what that usually means is that they are just really, really good at recognizing and taking advantage of the advantages that they see. They probably see them before anybody else does, and they exploit those advantages more often and more consistently than anybody else does as well. Now, advantages come in a couple different forms. You can obviously have like a skill advantage, right, where you just might be a really good driver or you might be a really good ball handler. But generally the two types of advantages that you want to hunt and that are going to be the most common are number one, momentum advantages. So this is basically just a closeout. Anytime that your defender goes from being in help to to closing out to you, that's a momentum advantage that you want to attack. Because a defender going from help to on the ball and closing out, they have to get there, take away the shot, slow themselves down and not get beat. That's the hardest thing that a defensive player is going to do in a defensive possession. That means that if you want to give yourself the best chance of getting past your defender and making a play, whether that be getting to the rim or drawing and help and kicking out to your teammate or whatever, the best time and the most likely time that's going to be is against a closeout. So we want to hunt those at momentum advantages as much as possible. And so a player who sees the game a step ahead is going to be constantly searching and anticipating those moments so that they're prepared to take advantage of it. And then the other type of an advantage that you'll see probably right behind that in terms of how often it's going to happen and is just a size or athleticism advantage. You get switched on to a defender who you're way bigger than, well, then you can find a way to exploit that advantage, whether it be posting them up, whether it be driving against them, whatever, or maybe you are against a defender who's way slower than you. And so in that moment, you want to catch the ball in space and attack them. Right. Those are also advantages that we want to hunt. So those two big ones, momentum advantages and then size or athleticism, matchup advantages or mismatches, those are the two things that players who anticipate at a high level and see the game a step ahead, they recognize when those opportunities are, are happening or about to happen, and they do the best job at consistently exploiting them. When you're clear on what it is that you're hunting in terms of advantages, you know exactly what you want and where you're going to be the most successful, it becomes easy for you to anticipate. And that's when you really start to feel like you're playing chess. Everybody else is playing checkers. You, you're a step ahead of the entire defense because you know exactly what it is and you're laser focused. I think for a lot of players, that's the big downfall for them is that they kind of go out there and they're kind of just aimlessly floating around. I know that I felt like this all the time as a player. I go out there and I would hope that I would play well and man, I hope that I score points this game. I hope that I have opportunities instead of going out there and saying, I know what advantages I'm hunting and I'm prepared to recognize and exploit them and, and I'm going to go in there, laser focus on that. If you do those things and you get super clear on that, then you're going to feel in control. You're going to feel like you're a step ahead of everybody else. So the next part of it is being able to recognize patterns and tendencies. Now, players who feel like they're a step ahead of everybody else, they just do a really good job at this. First of all, they understand basketball and like we talked about, they know the patterns that are going to lead to advantages for them. And that comes through with watching a lot of basketball. That's, that's probably the cheat code when you make it a point to not just watch basketball, but study the game. I just posted the other day on Instagram talking about flipping a ball screen and I was watching Zakai Zigler, who's the point guard for, for Tennessee, I said on Instagram, I was like, every point guard should be studying Zakai Ziggler because you learn so much about the game and you learn so much about different advantages and opportunities to, to look to attack when you watch the best do it. So find players who play similarly to you, play the same position or do something really well that you want to emulate and go on YouTube and watch them and obsess over them and do it constantly. And it's gonna be way easier for you to recognize those same patterns and tendencies when you play. And then going beyond that, it's about recognizing patterns and tendencies when it comes to how defenses are going to play different actions. So, for example, understanding that you're coming off of a pin down or a screen and the defense is constantly switching or they're constantly going under the screen, they're constantly going over the screen, how does that impact the way that you anticipate using those actions? If you know, the last three times they've guarded me, he's chasing me over the screen. Well, now that means I can anticipate that I'm probably going to be open on a tight curl here and maybe that's something that if my teammates haven't seen yet, I can communicate that to them. And now the next time it happens, I'm going to score off of it or I know that they're switching everything. So I'm going to tell my screener, hey, anticipate they're going to switch it, just slip and you're going to be wide open. Or I know that when I go into the screen, they've been switching the whole game or the last few possessions, I'm going to slip early and I'm probably going to be open for a layup. Being able to make those adjustments and pick up on patterns in a game is a big part of being a player who is constantly a step ahead of everybody. Like I said, you got to be able to go into games having a focus, but then depending on how things go, are you able to adapt? Are you able to make adjustments? And if you can do that consistently, because you know the game, you recognize patterns and you have a solution for everything, you're really hard to guard and that's a player who sees the game a step ahead. So it's important to have a counter or a solution to any sort of coverage you might see in an action. So do you understand if I'm using a ball screen and my defender plays me over, what am I looking to do now? Or if they go under, what am I looking to do? Or if they make, you know, if they ice the screen and make me reject it, what am I looking to do if they blitz it, if they switch it? Like, do you understand? And can you, can you think in your mind? All right, if I see that coverage, here's what I'm going to do, here's what I'll look for. Here's my two options. Same thing with pin downs. If they're chasing you over on pin downs, what's your solution? If they're going under, what's your solution? If they're, if they're switching, what's your solution? And when you have confidence that you can adjust based on how the defense plays you, it becomes really hard for you to be guarded by anybody. This is kind of a side note, but something that I always tell people is that I'm a lot better at basketball now than I was back when I played, even though I was working out every single day then. Now I'm not really working out myself at all, but I'm way better because I understand the game at a much higher level. I have way more solutions to any sort of problem that I might see on the court. So while I'm not working nearly as hard in terms of the workouts and the physical stuff, mentally, I have such a deep understanding of the game that I can anticipate way better. And that skill of anticipation is the key if you want to be a high level player. Let's take that pin down example. Maybe you're a really good shooter and that's the scouting report or you just hit a shot. And so now every time that you, you use a pin down, your defender is getting right up on you and chasing you right over that screen. Now they're playing me that way. I'm probably going to be open on a tight curl or maybe you start to see that they're kind of trying to beat you over that screen early so that they don't have to trail you around that screen. And now it's going to open up a backdoor cut for you to be open off of that screen. Can you make that adjustment when you recognize how the defense is playing you or maybe how they adjust to you? And if you're the screener, like I said, maybe you recognize that they're switching every pin down. So, you know, all right, there's going to be a little bit of a weakness in the defense if I slip before I set the screen, because the defense is getting lazy. They're just kind of going through the motions, switching everything. And now I know when I go set that screen, I'm going to look to slip. That's my adjustment. That's how I continue to stay a step ahead and create easy opportunities for myself. If you're looking for opportunities to move without the basketball, well, maybe you say, all right, I'm going to look to cut to the basket. Any time the ball gets entered into the post and I'm on the opposite side, or any time my teammate drives on the opposite side and maybe they pick the ball up, I'm going to look to cut from the weak side. If I see my defender turn their head to look at the ball, I'm going to look to immediately basket cut. And those are things that, again, you come in super focused on doing, and that allows you to. To always go out there with a purpose, and you're going to be way more successful when you have those things, when you understand them. We talk defensively. It's important to understand personnel and what they like to do. So if you know the player you're going against as a shooter, how can you say, all right, I'm going to make them get to their second best thing or their third best thing. I'm going to make sure that whatever they do best, they can't do. You're going to feel a step ahead, you're going to be a step ahead, and you're probably going to get a better outcome. You're. You're going in focused on what you're trying to get out of that defensive possession. So now I'm going to go through a few examples of what this would look like, what it looks like to be a step ahead in some game situations that you probably have found yourself in before. So let's start with the concept of 0.5 decisions, which means that whenever you catch the ball, you have half a second to shoot, drive or pass. And we want to make that decision quickly because, like I mentioned earlier, we want to take advantage of, of the momentum advantage that you have when a closeout is coming to you. Okay? That's the most vulnerable time for the defense. So you want to make a decision quick when you get the basketball and you have that close up coming at you. So let's say you're on the wing and your teammate is on the other wing, maybe you have a teammate in the same corner as you. Your teammate who has the ball on the other wing drives and it draws in help. And now they kick the ball out to you. You saw that your teammate was in the corner, their defender stepped up and help. So now it's a two on one with you and that defender in the corner. So you know, hey, if I catch the ball on this kick out, my defender is closing out to me. So that guy in the corner is going to be unguarded. That way you're able to catch the ball and immediately kick that one more pass to the corner for an open shot because you anticipated and you understood before you even got the ball. What is the advantage that we have, which in that case is a numbers advantage, and how do I best take advantage of it? It's moving the ball quickly. Now let's take it like another layer. Let's say you just made a three. Maybe the game just started, you just made a three. So now you know that your defender is going to close out way harder to you because they don't want to give up another three, meaning that vulnerable momentum advantage that we talked about is going to be there for you to exploit. So, you know, hey, next time I get the ball, they're going to close out hard to me. So if I give just a little shot fake or look at the rim, they're going to jump. And now I just created a wide open lane to probably get to the rim for a layup or to get a kick out draw and help. And now I just create an open shot for my teammate on the other side. Maybe this is in the context of like using this understanding to manipulate help. Maybe you're on the wing and whoever's in help. You know that they love blocking shots like they, that's what they love to do. They want to get a highlight play every single time. So you use that to your advantage, knowing, hey, if I get to the paint and they're in there, I have to use a shot fake because they're going to jump for sure. And now that I know that I'm going to open up a wide open layup for myself because they're going to jump and now they're. They're beat and now I can get myself a layup. If you don't think that way, you might go into the paint, not go with a shot fake. And now you're either going to get blocked or you have to shoot a really contested layup when it could have been way Easier if you're able to anticipate, see the game a step ahead and go in there with a focus and a purpose. Let's say your teammate in the opposite corner is a shooter. You see a lot of stuff going on in the paint. Ball gets kicked to you, you attack your defender and you know, hey, I probably am not going to get all the way to the rim. I'm probably not going to be able to create a shot for myself. But your goal becomes, all right, well, if I drive at their defender, they're going to have to step over and help. And that creates an open shot for my teammate who's a really good shooter. So you drive knowing you probably won't get the shot, but you're going to occupy their defender and help to create a kick out for them, to create an open shot for them that's seeing the game a step ahead. Maybe you notice that their transition defense isn't very good and so you look for opportunities to leak out early and you get a couple of layups off that just by making that recognition to say, hey, if I get out and transition early, I'm probably going to be able to put some pressure on them. Now this is the part that I think a lot of players don't ever think about. And when I was kind of going through what I wanted to talk about, this is something that even for me kind of popped up late. And I'm like, yeah, that's actually something that I haven't talked about before, but I think is actually an important thing to know if you really want to have a high level understanding of the game and that's listening to what the other coach is saying about whatever's going on. A lot of times coaches are going to kind of tip their cap and give you what you should be focusing on. So, for example, let's say going back to the example that we gave of you hitting a three early on and that changed the way that your defender closes out to you, you might hit a three. Maybe the coach starts saying, hey, shooter, number 10's a shooter. Don't let number 10 shoot. Now you know for sure if I catch the ball and I give a shot fake, they're going to jump. They're going to be out of control trying to take away that shot because their coach is literally telling them to do that. You can use that against them. Now just by being observant and listening to what their coach is saying, maybe their coach is making a big deal about not getting beat on a closeout. Maybe you saw him sub a guy out because he got beat on a closeout. So now, you know, their whole team is thinking about, all right, I got to make sure I don't close out too hard because I don't want to get beat, I don't want to get subbed, I don't want to get yelled at. So you know that they probably aren't going to close up very hard to you. Meaning if you catch the ball and shoot with confidence, there's not going to be a contest there. So now you know, that's probably going to open up for me. And then what? Then you hit one. All of a sudden their coach is yelling at them about shooter and now they're in no man's land like that defender has no idea what to do because they don't want to get beaten a closeout. And you know, they're scared of the repercussions of that and they know they can't let you shoot again. Now you have them in a really, really indecisive position. And indecisive players are usually not very good in the basketball court. Here's another really relatable example. You're right handed and that coach is yelling at your defender to force you left. Now, you know when you catch the ball in a closeout, if they're forcing you left, if you just give a quick jab towards the right, they're going to jump to take that right drive away. And you just opened yourself up a really, really easy drive to the, towards the left side right there. So using those things against them, when they have that, that thought in their mind, I think this is what I want to take away. You press into that a little bit and by doing that, it's going to open up something that's going to be easy for you to do just by being observant and listening to what's going on. So pay attention to what the coach says for them, what they're emphasizing, and use that to your advantage. That's how you stay a step ahead, kind of going with that. It's important to kind of to like read the room, especially the player that you're defending or that's defending you. So we kind of talked about the side when they've been defending you. You hit a shot, how is that going to affect what they do? They're playing you a certain way and you make an adjustment constantly. Just a game of back and forth of figuring out, okay, I do this. And that affected them that way. You have to also be able to get a feel for how your matchup is feeling on offense. Are they getting kind of antsy because they haven't shot the ball in a little bit? Are they, you know, a little bit frustrated because they missed a bunch of shots or because they're not getting the ball? You might realize that, hey, if they're getting antsy and it probably means that they're going to be really aggressive on the next possession, they're probably going to try and attack or try and shoot the ball. So I got to make sure that I'm really locked in right here. And then when you recognize that they're, you know, maybe they, they just airballed a shot or they turn the ball over and they feel a little embarrassed or a little frustrated, you might be able to say, okay, I can turn more of my attention into help defense this possession because this guy's kind of checked out right now. All these little things go into being a successful player and having enough of a feel and confidence in yourself that you are a step ahead of everybody else. If you want to take this another step and you're serious about taking your game to the next level, I have a free basketball IQ masterclass that's linked down below. We go into a lot of stuff in way more detail, even more stuff that we didn't cover. Masterclass is almost an hour long, so there's a lot of stuff in there. So if you're serious about taking your game to a new level, improving your basketball IQ and becoming a way more successful player, highly recommend that you check this out. Like I said, it's completely free. That's the top link down below in the description. I appreciate you for watching. Talk soon. Peace.
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