How to Invest in 2024 (Like a Billionaire) with Ben Fraser

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All right, calling all investors. You've been sitting there wondering these same questions. Like, I'm in this deal that stopped paying. What do I do next? Hey, this guy is now asking me for more money on this deal. Am I throwing good money after bad? These are the answers that we're going to give you in this podcast today.

Yeah, if you're wondering how the interest rate environment is going to impact the investment that you're in, or does the election and who actually becomes the new president, will that impact my not only taxes, but, but also even more deeply, the investments I'm going to make. All those will be covered as we sit down with Ben Frazier, the podcast author of Investing Like a Billionaire. Let's jump in right now.

Welcome to the Wealth Without Wall Street Podcast, your guide to understanding how to get out of the Wall street rat race and start your own mailbox model money lifestyle. Now, don't let these handsome Southern draws fool you. These financial minds are teaching our country to enhance savings, increase cash flow, and create passive income, all without the help of Wall Street. Are you ready to break through?

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Here are your hosts, Russ Morgan and Joey Murray.

Well, through that Wall street tribe, you've heard him on his podcast Invest Like a Billionaire, and you have heard him on our show before. Welcome back to the show, Ben Frazier. Ben, so glad to have you, man.

Yes. Thanks for having me, guys. Looking forward to our chat.

Well, this is one of those talks where we talk a lot about how do we build more passive income than we have monthly expenses. And I think today, Tribe, you're going to get a chance to hear Ben share both insights around macro trends that could impact our passive income, but also sometimes could help us reduce our monthly expenses. So this is a conversation business that I think is Going to be a little bit wide open. I'm going to give you the floor to start off with because you can help us set the stage for what you're seeing currently in the marketplace that maybe we need to be talking about and thinking about as an investor.

Yeah, absolutely. Well, again, thanks for having me on, guys, and love, love your community, what you guys do. And I think we're so aligned and our goals for helping people. I'll learn about investing and that's really our goal too, at the Invest Like a Billionaire as a podcast, we created really kind of out of a way to get more information to our investors because I'm the chief Investment officer at Aspen Funds, and so my day job is actually trying to make money with investments and then try to be like you guys, educated on a podcast. And what's really interesting. So I'm one of four partners it's been really cool to be partnered with. People have been around for a long time in the investing world because they've seen so many cycles, they've seen so many ups and downs and things that you never thought you'd see. And it's given me a lot of perspective. But one of the things that's kind of become a core part of how we view the world of investing is what we kind of call a macroeconomic lens. And so our tagline is, you know, macro driven alternative investments. And the idea is understanding the big picture, understanding the macroeconomic trends that are going on right now. Really create the first step, really create the landscape and framework that then dictates where the best opportunities are and where you should be spending your time, learning the investments you should be making and starting from there. Because so many people start kind of bottom up where, you know, ran across this opportunity and, you know, you throw some money here and I run across this thing and throw some money here, and you kind of do that over enough period of time and you kind of have this, you know, haphazard approach to investing. And that's, that's not helpful. Right? You guys talk about it all the time, but you got to have a clear goal, you know, clearly define your, your, what you're shooting for and then create a path to get there. And I think the very first step of that path is knowing where we're at in an economic cycle, what things are going to work in this environment and how do I as an investor participate in that.

So, Ben, what cycle are we in right now?

Yeah. So, you know, there's, I think, a really helpful framework for people to understand is There's a difference between the stock market and the economy, right? And so a lot, a lot of times those get conflated in investors minds because they're watching CNBC or they're seeing the talking heads of the news talk about, you know, the Dow dropped, you know, 300 points today. We got a bad report on jobs or whatever it is. And there's a lot of volatility, there's a lot of ups and downs in the public markets, the stock market. And what most people kind of take away from that subconsciously is no one knows what's going to happen, you know, tomorrow, right? It's anyone's guess if the market goes up or goes down. And so there becomes this assumption that we can't really know where we're going. But if you take a step back and if you look at bigger picture trends, underlying economic fundamentals, supply and demand, interest rates, looking at Fed policy and these big levers that move the economy in different directions, you can begin to see directionally where something might go over time. May not know the exact day or month or even year, but you can know you position yourself and your investments in a way that's going to be supported by these longer term trends. So you know, examples are, understanding the point of cycle you're in is, is so important because if you're investing in single family homes in 2005, 2006, you know, it's not a great time. It's top of the market, right? If you're investing in.com in 1998, 1999, you know, you're investing the top of the market. You fast forward a couple years and you know, it's a very different story. And even the same in, in multifamily and commercial real estate in 2021 and 2022, you know, a top of the market cycle. And so we're right now in a correction phase. What's really interesting about this, you know, correction, quote unquote is we haven't had a, a true technical recession. And you, you know, the, the big question mark is are we going to have a soft landing or not? That's really being driven by the Fed policy. And you know, as we stand right now, we're talking, you know, in August and you know, September is a big month with what the Fed decides to do from a rate standpoint for a lot of reasons we can get into. But you know, we're at a point in the cycle where things got really heated. Cheap money was, was, you know, available, a lot of stimulus was pumped into the economy. Inflation was out of control. Interest rates had to rise to slow down the growth. And so we're kind of in this weird in between, right. Things feel more expensive than they were a couple years ago. Growth is a little bit slower. Debt's a lot more expensive. And so everyone's kind of waiting to see what happens from here. Right? So it's a very, very important time to understand where we're at, you know, the things that can really impact and move the needle for an investment standpoint and get on the right side of, of these things.

So I'm, I'm running a business right now, and I'm trying to figure out where should I begin be, you know, should I be betting on the future or should I be in a more defensive posture? Right. So we've got a lot of issues here, and I'm, you know, I'm giving you an opportunity to take whatever side you want to and go with whatever angle. But, yeah, should I be bullish or should I be bearish right now as it relates to. Maybe it's investing in my business. Maybe it's investing in a certain specific asset class. Do I, do I think the interest rates are going to, to come down, and if so, how will that impact me in different ways, like. But I'm, you know, you're talking to a small business owner right now who is trying to figure out what's the best path to not only scale their business, but also to start building passive income streams on the side. Talk to me like I'm Joey, right, That I don't understand these big terms. And, and you're having it, like, dumb this thing down to his level. Help me understand.

I mean, that's going to be hard to do, but I'll try for, for Joey's sake here.

You guys know I'm listening, right? I mean, I'm, I'm still on the call. Okay.

On the podcast. I thought you were muted. You can't hear us. Yeah. I mean, you're asking the question that everyone is asking, right. At every level of business. Because that's the same thing, you know, big international companies are asking is, should I be investing for growth? Should I not be? And as a small business, I think it's even more acute because the impact of these rising costs, you know, labor is probably the biggest one. Right. We've, we've seen wages increase a lot the past few years, and, you know, employees have had, you know, up until maybe the past few months, really the upper hand. There's a lot of opportunities Unemployment employment is very low. You know, wage growth is very high. It's a lot to retain people and usually labor is the most expensive line item for a business. And so it's a very challenging time when these, especially for small businesses, things can really impact the bottom line in a general sense. I think one you got to know, do I believe in my business? Do I believe in the future of this industry and the growth of this? Because that's the first question number one, you got to answer. But then the other piece of it is actually taking as opportunity to become more efficient. We're in the same boat right now because our business is building a big pipeline of future revenue. We realize a sale of an asset, but because interest rates are a lot higher, a lot of those have been deferred. So we're having to a lot of our compensation, our future revenue is being pushed out further and further out. So we're kind of forced to become more efficient, forced to create structures that have more variable expense versus fixed expenses. But we're also massively investing into our business because we know where it's going. We know hey, this is a little bit of a blip. And even on the investment side, industrial is a vertical we're very, very bullish on. And we can talk about it if we wanted to, but we are, we are doubling down right now. It's really, really hard to get a deal done because that's, you know, hard to get. Banks don't want to lend, equity is a little harder to find. But, but we're so, we believe so much in the long term trends because we see what's happening behind the scenes. Right? It's liberty, a little bit of a slowdown of, of more companies coming and building manufacturing facilities in the U.S. but we're at the beginning of what we think a decades long trend of reshoring and near shoring and bringing manufacturing back to the US that is not going to change anytime soon. It's just a little slower right now. But it's going to massively tick up as soon as interest rates and the economy come back on. And because of that we want to get in front of it because all signs are pointing to really good time, really good time, really good time. If you can make a deal happen right now because everyone else is pencils down. And so we're trying to get ahead of the curve. So I think there's a similar approach of if you can see the investments I'm making right now, maybe it decreases my profit margins a little bit, but I Know the growth, I know the potential. And then as those costs come down, whether it's the debt service costs, you know, whether it's, it's labor costs, you know, those can create future, bigger opportunities down the road.

So, Ben, I want to dive into some of what you just said about industrial and the reshoring. I think that there's a lot of things we can, we can really get your perspective on from that. But before I do, you mentioned something in passing I don't want to miss. You said we're currently deferring some of those asset sales and you didn't specify what those were like. Could you tell me, are they all in the same asset class? Are they different? Like what, what are those assets that you're having to defer right now?

Yeah, so it's mostly real estate. That's most of what we do. We do real estate and oil and gas. And we have assets in multiple different asset classes. Self storage, multifamily and industrial. And several of our business plans contemplated a potential sale around this time. But it's not a great time to sell. Values depending on the asset class are down anywhere from 15 to 30%, depending on which area, which asset class you're talking about. But I also know one of the best things for real estate is inflation. And so if we continue to have high inflation, I'm okay to wait a little bit longer because I know the values of those properties will go, will be higher down the road. And even though the reasons values are down right now is mostly because higher interest rates. Right? Because to go purchase a property for the same cap rate you purchased it two years ago, you're taking on what's called negative leverage. So basically your yield that you're getting day one can't pay the debt service. Right?

Break that down for me. If I bought a million dollar asset today, as compared to four or five years ago, what does that look like? Help me understand how that negative impact has happened.

Yeah, sure. So let's do it for a multifamily, because I think that's what most people are familiar with and it's easy to talk about. So say a million dollars multifamily property that you bought in 2022, you said five years, but I think the, the peak was probably 2122. So that is probably right now, just for simple numbers sake, worth about 25% less. So it's worth about $750,000 if you sold right now. So say you're cash flowing at a, say you could have sold the property at a 5% cap rate, you know, two years ago. Well, if you're going to sell at a 5% cap rate now, the new buyer coming on their borrowing costs from interest are probably in the high sixes, low sevens, right? So they're buying a cash flow yield of 5%, which is what a cap rate is, right. Unlevered yield. And then they're taking on debt at 7% as those called negative leverage. They actually are having a negative yield on that asset. Now why would someone do that? Because people actually are still buying negative yield, which seems kind of crazy, but the idea is you expect the future yield to go up because the income will go up as inflation, you know, inflates the values.

So as an example, if I bought a property that was a million dollars, I know we're using really simple numbers, and these numbers are never the simple. But if I bought a property for a million dollars that was paying 5% with no mortgage on it, right? Like, then I'm getting that, what is that, 50 grand a year in income. True.

Yep, yep.

But yet if I had to borrow the, the million dollars to get into the deal at 7%, just simple math. And I realized there's, there's principal and interest, but just simple interest, I would be paying $70,000, so my income would be 50, my expense would be 70. So I'm upside down. 20 grand just in that equation alone.

Exactly. Yeah. What you just said right there, is the story of most commercial real estate right now. Right. So there was really cheap debt. Whether you got fixed rate or floating rate is a whole other conversation. But that's the challenge, and that's why the transaction volumes are down 75% this year, is because no one wants to sell and take a loss. But let me extrapolate this example a little further. Okay, so let's say the reason interest rates are higher right now is why inflation is higher. Right? And that's one of the Fed's mandates, is to keep inflation at a reasonable level. And they identified that to be 2%. So inflation is higher. Let's just say for simple numbers, again, it's 5%. Well, if I don't sell right now, if I sell right now, I'm going to sell at a 7% cap rate or probably even, maybe even higher. So I'm actually going to take a loss on my property. But if I can hold on for a couple years. So say inflation is 5%, and so now my income is not 50,000, it's over a couple of years. Say it's now 60,000. Well now interest rates have come down a little bit at that point likely and maybe they're not a negative leverage situation. So I can sell it closer to that cap rate maybe than I bought it at, maybe not quite the same level, but close. And now I've increased my income, right. And I can sell it back at that, a lower cap rate. All of a sudden you had a multiplicative value on that income. So at a 5% cap rate, every dollar of income you generate equates to about $20 of value. So that's where if you can continue to drive more income, you're going to have higher values down the road. But the challenge where a lot of the stress we're seeing in the commercial real estate market right now, office aside, is a whole different conversation is a lot of the people that bought these properties a couple years ago used floating rate short term debt. So most of them have three year terms. Those terms are coming due and because interest rates are higher and the income is not what they thought it was going to be, they don't have enough cash flow to get a refinance and actually pay off their current lender. And so a lot of them are forced to, you know, sell at a loss or have to put cash in a cash in refi. Right, that's, that's the opposite of what you usually want to, want to see to make a deal, you know, perpetuate longer. So that's what's happening right now. But if you can hold on for a while, you know, inflation is the real estate's best friend. And if you can wait for a long enough time period, inflation is going to increase the revenue and likely the income of the property. And so you're growing the property so you're waiting for those cap rates to go back down again, which is going to increase the values. And so that's really the mentality right now is how long can you hold on and let inflation continue to drive more value?

Tribe, Listen up. We're entering into the election year. This is the time where people are.

Going to get super fearful.

We're going to see businesses start to dry up. We're going to see opportunities though pile up for us only if we're prepared.

That's right.

You get to choose right now. Will you allow this time frame to negatively affect you and your business and your investments or will you be prepared to take advantage of these huge opportunities that come on the backside of this?

Because you're prepared with cash, let's get.

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Action on this looming event.

You just said inflation is kind of like Russ's haircut. You know, even if it's bad, it's gonna, it'll grow over time and come back to normal. I like that analogy. But talk about in the, in the multi family space, when these deals are blowing up like this, when you said, hey, these short term loans are now coming due and they don't have any option. Like they're either selling at a loss or they're calling their investors for more money to put in just to keep it afloat. They're obviously not paying anything out to investors, which we've heard numerous people say, man, I'm just disappointed. I was investing in this deal. It's not paying anymore. It stopped paying whatever. You know, those are kind of the terms that are being thrown around. What other options are out there? Like what are you seeing that are maybe, you know, helping those deals that you can take advantage of?

Yeah, it's a good question. There's a lot of pain for investors right now because multifamily specifically has been the darling of real estate investments for most syndications and passive investors for a while. And that's where a lot of the pain is being felt. So it's interesting because if you look at the underlying fundamentals of multifamily, we actually still have a pretty big housing shortage. Right. And it's projected to only get more acute over time. What's happening right now is really interesting because it's kind of all these negative forces are converging at the same time. So one, you have higher expense for your interest. That's obvious, we talked about that. The other piece is your operating expenses are substantially higher than they were just even a year ago. Right. Insurance costs have skyrocketed. I'm seeing renewals for premiums go up, you know, 50 to 100% year over year. I mean, it's insane. Increases property management, it's, you know, hearing lots of challenges with, you know, finding good people to, to manage your properties. So you have operational costs that are increasing. And then where what's happened is there's been so much new supply being delivered. We're seeing record numbers of new apartment deliveries. I mean, all the, all the Projects that were started a couple of years ago when there was cheap money are now completed and they're leasing up. We're seeing record numbers of supply in a lot of the high growth markets. So it's suppressing. There's just too much supply, not enough demand in the short term. So it's suppressing the revenue, suppressing rents and increasing vacancy, increasing the need to run specials and incentives, concessions to get people to move in. So it's all these factors, right? Lower revenue, higher expenses, higher debt service. Like every factor is going against those properties. But if you zoom out and look for the next five years, new construction starts, which is a very significant leading indicator, meaning the new construction started right now will create supply two to three years from now. Right, right. And so you can kind of get a sense of what the markets look like a couple years from now. And it's fallen off a cliff, as you'd expect, because it's. The numbers don't make as much sense. It's more expensive for debt. It's hard to raise the equity. All these reasons developers come on hold.

So these builders are not building the amount of units that we're going to need in three years. So what you're saying is that in the future, even these bad deals right now are going to basically be able to raise their rents because there's going to be more demand for the lack of units. I think you saw that stallion going to a local place when they said they were 97% occupied. What you're saying, Ben, is that that's only going to continue as we have less places for people who are looking for homes.

Exactly. Yeah. We're going to see that absorption of the new units, you know, really start to normalize over the next 12 months. And then you fast forward, you know, 12, 24 months from now, we're kind of back in the same boat we were in like 4ish years ago where we saw these crazy rental increases because there was just no supply. Right. You add on to the fact the spread between the cost of a mortgage versus the average cost of a rental is the highest that has been in several decades.

Break that down for me. Give me an example.

Yeah, so if you're. You're spending $1,000 on monthly rent as a renter, now you're spending maybe $2,000 on an average mortgage, Right? So these are. There's a spread, you can Google, you know, rent to mortgage spread. And over time, you know, sometimes getting a mortgage is cheaper than rent, sometimes rent is cheaper than a mortgage. There's kind of this, this spread between them and it's now expanded to where the cost of a mortgage is so much higher than the average rental. And what was that doing? It's causing more people to be forced to be renters. Right.

And the way that, that actually holds out to be true is because you have people not selling properties. They're in properties that are, either the owners are, either have already paid them off or they have old short term, are not old, low interest rate debt that allows them to make money on that, that margin. So a guy goes out and buys a property today, he can't turn around and rent it and make money because the mortgage is way higher than what the market is. Is that, is that right?

Yeah. I mean, you're kind of talking about an even bigger issue. What I'm talking about is just the, the pure, the pure cost of a mortgage right now are so much higher because of interest rates being higher. Right. You get a mortgage at 3% versus a mortgage now at 7 or 8%. You know, it's, it's, it doubles the cost. But what you're saying is even a bigger issue that's kind of driving a lot of that, you know, piece of it is there's just not a whole lot of supply for single family homes. We have a, the same problem. Single families are doing multifamily and what's, what's exacerbating that issue is people that are in current homes with low fixed rate mortgages, they're disincentivized to sell. Right. So it's, it's really pulling a huge amount of inventory off the market. And so again, it's driving up the prices of single family homes. There's just less supply and you have higher interest rates. So you have higher prices and higher costs of debt on the prices that are now creating this really, really big gap. So you know, going back to the multifamily, you have these long term fundamentals that are, that are really supportive, very strong case for multifamily over the next three years. But in the short term it's very challenging. So what we're doing is because we're big believers in multifamily in general, there's a huge opportunity for those that are coming to the market. And what we're doing right now is mostly preferred equity and Bridge Bridge capital. We're providing capital not to distress properties because, you know, hold the conversation. Most distressed properties, in my opinion, they're just kicking the can down the road before they have a wiper, a Pretty significant loss, right? Because if you just, if you, you bought at the wrong, you know, pricing with the wrong debt, there's just not a whole lot you can do. And so I actually think a lot of these capital calls that people are seeing are. It's throwing good money after bad, and you just should accept some of these as losses and move on.

Hold on, hold on. I don't want to miss this.

Okay?

There's enough people that are listing right now, and they're like, wait a minute, did I just put bad money or good money towards bad in this deal? I like, what would be one or two questions or one or two indicators that you would say, hey, you need to back out of that deal. It's a sinking ship. Like, is there anything. I mean, obviously every deal is individualized and specific, but if I'm listening to you right now and I've been, I've been asked to put a capital call, how do I know that I'm not just doing what you just said?

100%. Yeah. I mean, I, I did a whole series on capital calls, you know, three or six months ago on our podcast, because it was. We're getting questions all the time, right? And it's, it's a big issue because a lot of people don't, don't know, like, is this, am I throwing good money after bad, or am I actually protecting the capital that I already have at risk, right? And that's, that's the tension you have because maybe you put a hundred thousand dollars into a project. Maybe the capital call is only 10%. So it's like 10,000 more dollars, you know, And I think the determination has to be, is that $10,000 truly going to protect the $100,000, or am I just extending, you know, that I'm going to now lose the timeframe before I lose $110,000. I think that's the real big challenge. So some of the things that I always say is one, ask a lot of questions, right? Because if they're doing a capital call, something happened that they didn't expect, right? Because the goal when you do a syndication or fund is you raise all the money plus a lot of extra on the front end to make sure you don't run into an issue where you need additional capital. So you already ask a lot of questions. What went wrong? Well, if the simple answer is interest costs are just more, more expensive, you know, to me, that's not, that's not a really great answer. Because if you're taking out floating rate debt, you should have a significant either you know, hedge against that or significant amount of reserves to protect against that. Now they went up the fastest. They've, you know, interest rates have gone up faster than any other time in history. So yes, it was an outsized event. That's hard to predict. But you then have to determine what's the likelihood that this project gets to cash flow neutral because most of these projects there is a new capital call is there have been exhaust seller cash reserves because they're cash flow negative and try to get the cash flow positive to hold on and make it further. So the first question you got to ask is what's the path and how quickly can you get to cash flow positive because they're cash flow positive. Cash flow solves a lot of problems, right? If you can actually service all your expenses and service all your debt even if you're not making distributions. Yeah, there you go. Passive income shirt call out. Even if you can't make distributions, you can protect the equity, you can protect the property from being taken back by the bank or being forced to liquidate at a bad time. And then the hope is again, if you can hold out a couple years, you know, you can realize a better value when the cap rates come back down and you've hopefully expanded incomes.

All right, but I'm going to ask you one last question though. We're, we're running out of time here and the question is the election. How does the election play into these, these movements and trends?

Right.

Like just you, you've watched trends over time. I've even seen studies where it showed that when the Democrats are in office, the markets tend to soar. I don't know if that's true or not. But how do you see the macro trends? Do you see the election playing into any of this and if so, how?

Yeah, yeah, it's question I'm being asked probably more than any other question. And honestly the question, the reason why I've talked to a lot of investors recently that I'm just going to wait to invest till after the election. And yes, there's a lot of things that are kind of up in the air and it's a pretty wild election, you know, if we're all being honest. But you know, as I've been through a few election cycles and you know, seen this kind of play out a few times, the reality is the election doesn't change a whole lot for most people. Right. The great thing about our government is we have a three party system. And I'm probably less concerned about the presidency. Who gets elected for that than I am? All branches of the government being one color or the other, because I think that's where things can get a little bit more unique, is if it's all red or all blue. So I'm always looking for hopefully a split government because I think that creates a lot more bottlenecks in the system, a lot less, lot more challenged and getting certain things done. You know, whether it's. I agree with it or not disagree with it, but the reality is, like, if you look at real estate, the tax code, the 1031, you know, the. All the benefits that we get as real estate investors, those haven't changed in many, many, many, many decades. They're not going to change, you know, depending on what policies or, you know, budgets they put out. You know, there's going to be some change, you know, relative to the other person that becomes elected, but I don't think it's going to be significant to where people need to be concerned if this person gets elected or this person gets elected. It's, you know, the apocalypse versus, you know, close to the apocalypse. So I think it's, it's something that you got to pay attention to. But it's from an investor standpoint, you know, if we're talking about private investments, talking about real estate, it's, it's more of a. That. That's good to know. Maybe more rent controls get put in place if a Democratic president wins. Maybe we have more tax cuts and it drives more job growth if Republican gets in office. But largely those things are going to not move the needle in a significant way.

So you're, you're not, you're not concerned about the potential of having 25% on unreal losses, unrealized losses, and all those deals that you guys have right now.

I'm not worried at all. There's no way that's ever going to get passed. That's, that's the stupidest thing I've ever heard of. I mean, if you think about it, how do they even do that? Then what happens when we have unrealized losses versus unrealized gains? Like, are they going to write us a check? The government's gonna write us a check for all the, the losses that, I mean, there's just, it's, I think, pandering to, to the constituency and, and you selling an idea that sounds good because we want to tax the rich, but it's just completely impractical and there's no way that it would ever get approved.

Oh, man, I tell you what, it doesn't ever cease to amaze me how much you understand about the markets and the way you guys are trying to get to where the puck is going. I love every every time we get to chat and catch up having you in the Mastermind is with us as well. It's always super helpful to have your perspective. For folks that want to reach out to you outside of the podcast, where would you want us to send them?

Yeah, you can just head to our website if you'd like. Aspenfunds us, you can learn more about the different offerings that we're working on that are kind of supported by these long term trends that we believe in. And yeah, if you like podcasts, you can check ours out. Invest like a billionaire. Thebillionairepodcast.com awesome man.

Thanks again for being here and try. Thank you for listening as always. If you found value, please like and share and review the show so that more and more people can get to know how to get to financial freedom as fast as possible. Thanks as always for joining us. We'll catch you on the next episode.

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