#Stockmarket live (Nov 19): #Covid19 Second Wave is a go! #Stockstowatch: $AMC, $WTRH, $AZN

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. How goes it? Was having some computer issues, but all looks well now. Do do do do do do do do do do. Do do do do do do. Do do do do do do. Do do do do do do. What's up? What's up? What's up, man? Google Finance is doing some wacky stuff right now where this is just not working, and I don't know why. It's driving me a little bit nuts. Do do do do to do, do do do do to do, do do do do to do, do do do do to do. All right, guys. Let's take a look at the portfolio. What do we have happen yesterday? We had a lot of movement. So what you'll see is, I guess we can go here, my public profile, go down here. Hey, look guys, look what we did. We did a thing yesterday where we made some moves and we bought some stuff and we moved some things around and we're looking good. We're looking good. Pretty happy about that so far. Um, okay, so what are the changes? Recent activity. Recent activity: we sold, uh, closed our position in Mara entirely, uh, and then using the gains from Mara, uh, increased our position in— my position in ACRX, took a position in Hill, increased position in Mattel, and increased my position in Waiter. Now what I'm seeing here is that Waiter is not Increased here. So, want to look at that later. Not this, not this. All right, let's go. It's the calendar for upcoming winners. Good morning, good morning, good morning. Okay, so I want waiter, ACRX, WPRT can come down. Let's put Mattel in there.

Hill.

What else are we watching? Seabay. Seabay is coming up. I want to watch AMC today as well. Did I see ETM pop yesterday? I am crying. Uh, ETM, what's it at? $254. Yeah, look at that, a nice little run. Uh, I'm okay with that. I actually still have ETM options, so, um, I'm okay with that. Yeah, uh, Waiter's up at $3.40 pre-market here, uh, so I'm actually looking forward to the market opening today and me making a decent little chunk of change. Now I'm not exiting Waiter by any stretch of the imagination. I think that there's a lot more room for this to go as lockdowns increase, the second wave increases. Here, so I'm not going anywhere on it. CBI took a little dip yesterday. PIX is back above my entry pre-market, so I'm pretty happy with that. Carnival is doing a share offering, so hopefully that takes it down too. This is the Christmas sweater, ladies and gentlemen. It's as Christmassy as it could get. It's ugly. It's an ugly, ugly Christmas sweater. I'm a big fan of it. Yeah, so I mean, my dollar cost average on W— or on Waiter is Um, $284,000. I've got about $10,000 in there. Uh, as this opens up today, I should have a decent little chunk of change on there. Yeah, I feel for you, man. I do. Um, I'm not sure what it's going to take for, for tech to come back, but I don't know. I took space puts. There's no news for space. There's no good news. Space cannot launch until New Mexico lifts their COVID restrictions. And they are not doing that anytime soon. So I think tomorrow when there's no launch, expect space to fall. I got me some December space 18 puts queued up and ready to go. I need to see CCL drop today though.

Oh, hair!

Five months in a row. What?

What?

Ah, you would think it would be. You you would think it would be, but apparently it's not. Whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa! What is this? CBII is halted. Oh, Pepe hands! Not like this. Not like this. Why is CBII halted? Hmm, today is 11:18. Is this an IROC halt or a NASDAQ halt? NASDAQ halts. Not like this, not like this. I don't see it on the NASDAQ is halted, so let's go to IROC halts. I don't see it here either. Hmm. Where is it halted?

I don't understand.

Come on. CB2 Insights halted. Good morning, good morning, good morning. News tools sorted by the past hour.

Nothing.

Past 24 hours.

Nothing.

Yeah, so what I was looking at was Vince's every sales presentation and earnings call that Vince Angliotti has done. He's the CEO of ACRX. They say their orders they're looking for sometime Q4. DOD orders end of Q4. CBII is a health stock. That is correct. CBII is a health stock that I just took a position in at the start of the week. I've got about $4,500 in there. Waiter is looking very good this morning. I'm very happy with Waiter at the moment. Oh crap, it's 9:23. All right, let's, let's get the marbles going here, ladies and gents. And the winner, as always, will get to pick the stock that we watch going into the day. So let's see, jumping beaming greatness. As always, guys, I will be playing against you for the right to pick which stock we watch as we go into the market. So go ahead and join exclamation mark play to get in. Let's go! Let's go! Let's go! If anybody knows why CBI is halted, I can't figure out for the life of me why it is, but. All right, 10 seconds. If you're not in, you're not in. Here we go, Coltrane. I think you might not have made it. I don't know, Big Little James. I don't think Big Little James made it in either. Oh, whoa, whoa, whoa! It's glitching. It's glitching. Can I explain the hill interest? Yeah, I can definitely go into hill today. I can definitely go into Hill today. Cedric in the lead, ladies and gentlemen. This is a long tube of doom. I wish these weren't so big. Largely my Hill interest is in the fact that Joe Biden's brother running the thing. Cedric way out the gate. Holy jumping. He's just like, peace out, guys. I'm done. I'm done. Cedric's picking today. That's how it goes. You're coming for it, but Boost works, does it? Everybody type in boost, see if it works, because this is rigged. Look at Cedric way up there. Jonas wants a piece here. Lattice, Yura going right for the hole. Oh no, Millennial hits the shot. Uh-oh, we're gonna get a rig for sure. We're gonna get a rig for sure, ladies and gents. Look at this, look at that. Oh no, no, no, no, no, not like this, not like this. Oh, the lasers of doom. They got me, boys. They got me.

RIP.

Cedric portals past the lasers like a champ. Knows the course like the back of his hand. Yura, same thing. He still wants a piece of this. Cedric, I don't know if anybody can stop him. I don't know if anybody can stop him. He's got to make this jump of doom here, so we'll see how he does. Round the loop, up in the air. Does he hit it? Does he stick the landing, ladies and gentlemen? Oh, he whiffs it. Yura down. Cedric down. Hare down. Mr. 3-Pick down. It is official, ladies and gentlemen. The course has killed everybody. We have no winner. You know what that means. You know what that means. What that means is— We go again. We go again. We go again. But we don't go on that same course because that was stupid. We go again. If you can read this, your monitor is upside down. All right, everybody in. Let's go! Exclamation mark play. Let's go! Let's go! Let's go! Get in here. If you didn't get in before, you can get in now. Let's do this. We go again. We go again. All right, here we go.

Here we go.

Here we go. Ten seconds. If you're not in, you're not in. So did I. I thought we— I mean, I thought at first that they would just push you. I didn't realize that they like incinerated you and you died. So that's unfortunate. Okay, we got like a Plinko board to get us going here. A few more names in this one. A few more names. Janos, I think you missed it, buddy. I think you missed it. Saki, I think you missed it.

Oh, oh, Eric.

Oh, I'm sorry.

Eric O'Fallon, here we go. It's a race, it's a race. Who's gonna get it? Cannon, Cedric, Blader, Big Little James, Roscoe People Love. Here we go. Oh, that makes music, that little thing there. That's cool. All right, here we go, here we go. This, this, this one literally reminds me of a Marbleworks from back in the day. I know all y'all back there with your Marbleworks, you know what I'm talking about, you boomers out there. Boost! Get your boost on, Hair Lattice. I don't see any boosts here. I think this is where you're gonna— oh damn, look at that thing down there. Oh, Hair's gonna be first to the bowl, but first to the bowl doesn't mean down the hole, you know what I mean? Yep, waiter running on COVID shutdowns. If only somebody could have foreseen Seeking Alpha does not have the power to move Waiter. Hare is first to the hole. Louisiana going into lockdown, that has a lot more to do with Waiter. Wait, where's Hare? Oh, there's a bottom track. Oh, I see. Hair snuck in the bottom. Oh, everybody else is stuck way back there. Hair, I don't think anybody can stop Hair. I think Hair's got this. Round and round we go, where we stop? Okay, there, there are some blocks here. Hair could get caught up. No, Just navigates them like a champ. Oh, no way! Look, look at this! Look! Oh, that was the hope. That was the dream.

Ah, damn!

So close. Hair, you win! You win! Well done, well done, well done. All you guys back there, keep up the good fight, but. We are gonna get out of here. What'll be here? What'll be? Bum bum bum bum. WPRT. I'm I'm about that life. I can do a little WPRT watching.

WPRT.

This is one that I'd like to get into if waiter goes to my price point. I would like to exit and get into WPRT. Mind you, WPRT, holy cow, it's up to $3.25 here. I think it could still double. I think it could still double. Why am I now subbed?

I don't know.

Do you mean why am I not subbed? I don't see you with a sub. You're not subbed. I did take the Hill play. I did. Yeah. We're gonna watch WPRT here for a little bit out the gate, and then we're gonna, and then we're gonna go at it. Let's see how the attendees are doing this morning. I am up another $600 on Waytor today. ACRX is down a little bit. HILL is up about $10, nothing huge. I did take a small HILL play, guys, so there's about 1,000 shares of HILL there. Mattel, I did increase my position significantly in Mattel. Um, oh, there you go, there you go. I got out of Mara at 312, guys, so I'm pretty happy with that. Ooh, Saki, 3 months in a row, nailed it.

Green energy.

Green energy on Biden. That's all that is. Nice little green candle there on WPRT. I have ETM options. I've got ETM $4 calls, 12 of them for December. PIX did give it all back. Look at that.

Look at that thing.

Where is it? PIX. P-E-I-X. There it is. Gave it all back yesterday, up to $6.20 and then right back down, which is fine. I'm okay with that.

I don't mind.

I don't mind. PIX is a play into the new year. So I mean, that's not huge. Also, I don't have a big holding in it. PIX is only about 5% of my portfolio. I'm okay with PEIX being down a little bit. Okay with that. Uh, SPY is dying. Uh, it's not happy, I'll give you that. At 354, SPY's not happy. You know what is happy?

Waiter.

Waiter is happy. Um, honestly, I'm looking at this and thinking with PEIX, hmm, I'm thinking with PEIX Oh, GXO with that 3-month anniversary. What's up? Um, okay, uh, WPRT, guys, it looks like it's just gonna be sideways here. Um, let's see, Waiter. Waiter's holding on to its gains, so I'm pretty happy about that. Portfolio's in the green again. Grab 200 shares of Mara and just see how it does today. Waiter though, up 2 grand on Waiter now. That's 20%. Yeah, WPRT doesn't seem to want to go anywhere here, Hair. Until it gets China news, I honestly don't think that it moves that hard. What I do want to figure out here is CBII. I don't know if any of you out there are more capable than I at At searching Google, but if you can find out what the heck is going on with CPI, that would be greatly appreciated. Um, I do want to sell these at 39.

Order filled.

Okay, got those.

Mm-hmm.

I'm on puts. I am on puts with space. I might actually grab a couple more. I'm gonna buy one more, I think.

Order filled.

Okay, yeah, so I've got 2 space puts now. 18 puts for, uh, December 18th. Okay, I'm gonna, I'm gonna try to go find out what the heck is going on here with CBII and why it is halted. Um, is there any news here? No. I just don't understand why, like, if it's not IROC halt. CBII has been halted at the request of the company pending news. News is about to drop on CBII. So fingers crossed this is good news. No, I don't think that that's bad news. When a company requests because they're about to drop news, I don't think that that's bad news. The trick is it's difficult in Canada. They did have a similar halt back in October. And that halt back in October was the announcement of an offering, I believe. Late September, there was an upsized offering. Is CBII OTC? You can trade it OTC. I have access to the Canadian markets. On my dashboard, so TSX. I have it. I've got ten thousand shares of this thing on the TSX.

Um.

Ah, I'm sitting on ten thousand shares of this thing. What? About four thousand six hundred Canadian in there. Which is like three grand, a little over three grand US. Let's go to their website. Let's go to their website and see what we can see. Maybe they are dropping news there first. CB two insights. Press releases. It's November 5th that they announced that they were going to. So here's the news lately on CB2. Okay, so let's go. How far back we want to go? August. Let's go to August. Okay, August. Positive news. Positive news. Earnings. Positive partnership. First ever EBITDA positive quarter. $3 million private placement. This is nothing. Annual general meeting. Private placement is completely bought up. Over 100,000 patients announced. Acquires new Texas properties heading into COVID second wave. These are clinics that these guys own. Okay. This is an investor day that's not really in anything. Extinguishes all of its long-term debt. Acquires more Washington-based primary clinics. Announces a $4 million bought deal. This was— yeah, this was a private purchase, Echelon, $4 million. And then the same company increased an additional 15%, exercising their over allotment option. So they took even more of it. And then they acquired Colorado clinics in the start of November. So 3 acquisitions of new clinics: Washington, Texas, Colorado. All of their long-term debt is gone. They're EBITDA positive for the first time. They do telemedicine, they do prescription, they do emergency clinics, urgent care clinics heading into second wave. So we are confirmed that they are halted. I'm going to go to Reuters here just to make sure that this is top of mind markets. I'm gonna be watching that real, real close today, guys. That's— that could be— that could be a big, big, big deal for me. Could be a very big deal for me. Let's go into the Discord here and hang out with these guys. Good morning, guys. We're gonna go here, and we're gonna go here, and we're gonna go.

Morning. Morning.

I'm pretty stoked. This is CAIB, man. I'm pretty stoked.

Yeah, I finally sold my first, uh, long-term hold.

Oh yeah, what's that?

A QQQ call I've had since August of last year.

Oh damn, how'd it do?

From $550 to $7K.

Holy crap, really? Yeah. All right, no complaints on that play.

Leaps, leaps, dude.

Yeah, seriously. I may have to, as I build up this options portfolio, I may need to take a little bit of a closer look at that, I guess.

Maybe. You like to hold long-term, right?

I do.

Long-term for like a year. You just do that with options, you make a lot more money. Very interesting.

Obviously you gotta do that with the plays that you're confident about, but.

Yeah.

Because I think Disney right now would be a leap that I'd want to take. So what do I— walk me through this. Walk me through what this looks like. If I was going to take a leap on Disney, what do I do?

Where do you think Disney is going to end up in a year?

One, where is it right now?

One.

So I want— I'm looking at January 20th, right? Okay, it's $140 right now. I would say it's $180 by next year. No, I'm definitely not going to talk to Hitch about this. Hey Hitch, I'm bullish on Disney a year out. What do you think about that? Um, okay, so I see these calls here, but I don't even see a price on them because they're so far out. So how do I go about— how do I make this happen?

What do you mean you don't see a price?

On, on IB, it doesn't, it doesn't populate with a price. Okay, so January 2022.

All the prices online.

Uh, all strikes. 180. Oh, it's a penny.

No, it's like 700. What is the mid?

Are we looking at the same expire? Yeah, expire January 2022.

Yep.

Weird. The bid-ask I'm, I'm seeing here is much lower than that.

Wouldn't really make sense for a $142 stock because the T— the theta is going to be pretty high for a year-out contract. So you're looking at something pretty expensive. Um, so if you're looking at a final price of $180, you have to like lowball it a little bit because you, you want to hit 180 before that so that you can sell off the contract for maximum value. And maximum value is somewhere like pretty close to strike. So typically when I go like, the further in that I go into strike, the, the more I want to sell my contract unless I'm like planning to have like a long-term tax consequence for it. If not, then I usually roll. So the closer you get to strike, the, the better off you are just selling it. So if you're looking to get to $180 by next year, you should probably be looking at something like $165 to $170. And, um, those are like around $1K, so a little expensive.

Yeah, but little expensive on that Disney is going to recover Their travel and tourism by 2022. I'm not even seeing the 1K. Okay, so now IB is updated and it's saying that it's gonna be— it's got 1,855 for the 160s. Oh, that's '23. Get into the right year, that might help. Okay, cool. All right. Yeah, I'm seeing about— okay, 165. $1,000, which I don't have right now in the options portfolio.

Yeah.

Okay, so step 1, make $1,000.

Disney is probably not something I would take. So like LEAPS, LEAPS are really good when you have a, uh, correction and you have the, the options kind of balance a little bit after the IV spike, and then you hit it with, uh, like, oh, you're down 15% and the IV kind of calmed down. I can see this growing by like 30-40% in a year after the recovery. It does.

But you would want to do this with bigger stocks too, right? Not like something like WPRT. You'd want to do this with something that's a stock.

Yes, yes, yes.

Okay, because you want to, you want to be out of the money. You want to be like a good bit out of the money, but you want to do it on it like a relatively strong stock so that it could hit that out of the money before it gets to your expiration. Right, because if it hits, it's your goal by your expiration, your contract is worthless. So you're not planning to hold it the whole way through.

Okay, then I want to look at CCL January 2022. See, this is a little bit more reasonable here. This I could play. This is not, this is not nuts. I, I can see CCL by, by 2022 easily being back up to $35. So you would say like go instead for the 30s at around 260, right?

Yeah.

Now here you get into like this balance game where how much do you pay per dollar of potential profit for your contract? So if you look at the 35s relative to the 32.5s, it's like a difference of 10 cents for $2.50 on the strike. Like, it's just not worth it to get the 35s ever, no matter what your target is.

Yeah.

And the further you go, like, at some point there's going to be a limit in your mind of how much you're willing to pay per dollar of the contract. For each dollar of the strike. And roughly when I get to that limit, I start looking at the contract right before that.

Okay, okay. So what I'm gonna do here is I'm gonna sell 2 of these Mattels for $165. Can I get $165?

Not really.

Okay, what if I go 160? You want to give me 160?

Order filled.

Okay, good. Okay, so now I've got enough to buy one of these CCL calls. So I'm gonna go in here, I'm gonna try one of these. I'm gonna give this a whirl. I'm gonna give it a whirl because I, I like what I'm picking up, what you're putting down here. I, I like what you're what you're doing. And I think that there's opportunity on this.

Cool.

All right.

So $265.

Are you looking at the 30s?

Yeah, the 30s. I think it's going to— I was thinking it was going to $35.

Go ahead, Millennial.

Sorry. I thought it was going to $35. So I'm grabbing the 30s instead because that gives me a little bit more room closer to where the strike is.

Right.

Oh, here's another part of the calculation. So you're paying around $2 for this 35, right?

Yeah.

Order canceled.

Or for the— sorry, uh, you're paying $2.67-ish for the 30?

Somewhere around that, yeah.

Yeah. So if it hits your 30 out of this 35 and you paid $2.50 for it, um, what's like your profit gonna look like? Imagine it hits $35, like by, by the date. Yeah, you paid $2.50 for it and you made $5. Okay, is that worth—

Well, you're— how do you calculate that it's gonna be $5? What do you do to—

Buying a strike of $30 and his expected target is $35, right? So the, the profit is $5.

But that doesn't mean the premium's gonna net him $5.

Probably gonna be more depending on how much time value he has on it. But like, I'm talking about like the expected strike is $35.

Yeah.

And you buy is $30.

Yeah.

So, oh, I get— I see what you're getting at. You're like, why wouldn't you just take the, the $32.50s at 2? Because there's a better chance you're gonna make more profit even though it may not be as deep into the strike.

Honest, I'm just, uh, pointing out that it all needs to be like calculated in your brain at least somewhat. Like, are you paying enough for how much value you have? Are you willing to take that risk? Because typically when I, when I look at things like this, I want like at least a few hundred percent off of it. If I'm taking like 100% by risking the whole thing, so like if Disney just falls— or sorry, CCL— CCL just falls next year, like you're losing the whole premium.

Yeah.

So is it worth risking 1 to 1 for this? I'm not sure it is because you know that it's gonna go up.

The other thing here that I'm looking at too is, um, like if like December, that's 1 month out, right? So if you're 1 month out, the at-the-money strike right now is only $1.80. So do you ever calculate that kind of concept as well?

Time value, um, on the 1 month out is disgusting.

Like, no, that's what I'm saying. So let's say he gets near 30 with a month left to go. He's still negative though. It, though it is increased that whole time, Theta's eating it up all the whole time and he's still negative. That's, that's the, the concept that I'm trying to, to get across also to, to millennials, saying is you need a lot of time left to really profit.

Okay.

Yeah, no, I like this because in reality I see CCL recovering into January '21. Um, so for me to have January '22 $2,750s, that gives me a full year of time, right? Um, which is what I just took.

So like in midsummer, or they open things back up and it hits $3,000, $3,500, at that point you're like, okay, I've already hit my strike, don't be greedy.

Yeah, I— so I took, I took a $2,750 call for January 2022, but I think it'll actually be past that strike by '21.

But I mean, I refer to euro. It just, it's something I think about.

Here's an interesting point with LEAPS. You don't have to pull on that greed factor as much because of how much time you have. If you get into your strike super early, it's often a good idea to just hang on to it for a bit or roll it because, um, so say with, uh, Peloton. I bought like $45 calls, um, a few months after IPO, and then it crashed and I lost like 80%. And then, uh, a few months after, like, it proceeded to fucking explode and I made, I think, 3x on it. And then it proceeded to climb after that and I FOMO'd because I sold my contract. But like, you You have a lot of time because you're buying a year-out contract.

Yeah.

So some of the habits that you have when, hey, I made money on this like monthly or 2-month call and I have to get rid of it because if it drops I'm screwed because I have no time, some of that gets to be reevaluated a little bit. You have, uh, a lot more wiggle room. It's kind of like a stock for the next year, or for half a year at least, until theta starts kicking in.

Okay.

At what point do you do view T-minus when theta starts becoming an issue? Is it one of those that when he gets within six months, do you start concerning yourself with it?

It really depends on the movement of the stock. If I see that the stock is not moving and the if I see that the stock is not moving and I'm losing to theta and IV. Then, um, I'll keep it for a few more weeks because, uh, I'm expecting some kind of movement to jump the IV, and then I can sell it at a lower loss. Uh, but if it gets to like somewhat near where I want it to be, I'll sell. But if it's not near there and I take a loss, I'll just hold it until the end.

Okay.

Like, if I'm at a 60% loss and I have like 6 months left, I— there's no way I'm selling it if I still think it's a good play. Like, if I still think that even the direction that I'm aiming for is reasonable, I, I don't sell it because like, to me, there's no difference between like a 60% loss and 100% loss on a play that I could make 200% on.

At that point, I like it, man. I like it. I'm in. I'm doing it. I've got my first leap locked in. I'm excited for it.

Congrats. Now forget about it for like.

Yep.

Are we gonna see Tesla break 500 here?

So guys, I did take 200 more shares of Mara this morning because the market is dying. I suspect. Bitcoin is where we're headed. So I did reenter Mara for a small hold, but it was 310. I have it at about 316, so that's profitable. And then, so for those of you that didn't realize yesterday, I moved around a bunch of stuff, sold out of ETM entirely, sold out of Mara entirely, took the profits on that. Current holdings in my portfolio are now up over 40,000 US. Uh, so I'm doing all right. Uh, as well, there's that, uh, $5,000 sitting Canadian, uh, so it's like $3,000 US there. So I've got like $43,000 managed right now, uh, inside the portfolios. So I'm pretty happy about that. Um, WADER's continuing to be strong for me, and I think that's going to continue to go. Uh, MARA, guys, I'll, I'll ride this on the day and see what we do as long as the SPY continues to Decrease. Um, I mean, if I can make $100 off of Ameri today, I'll be happy on that. Um, and then Mattel is going up. Uh, we're almost at that $15 mark now. I think Mattel is just gonna be a really, really strong play into Q1. I have no intent of getting out of Mattel anytime soon. Um, ETM was a seasonal play. 6NoLove. So ETM is a seasonal play. Ad dollars could have been there for sure, but it usually tapers off at— in, in December. So I mean, I'm not— I, I don't hate it. I don't hate it. Uh, if you're still in it, it's still got some room to run, but I wanted to move that money into some other plays that I was seeing better potential. Um, so I increased my holdings in ACRX, I increased my holdings on Mattel, and I increased my holdings in Wader.

here.

Uh, so right now I've got kind of this, this 3-legged stool thing going on. Um, and then a little bit here and there in some other stocks. Uh, DIX has, you know, $2,000 holding. Uh, IPX still has, uh, $1,200 in it. Uh, HILL has about $1,600. And then, uh, about $3,000 US in CBII. CBII is the one that I really want to watch today, guys. Uh, hopefully this news drops soon. And hopefully it's great news. I'm not worried about ETN plateauing or tanking. It's just if it's seasonality play and it goes into December, I made a decent run and I took the profit on it. So a win is a win is a win, and I move onward. Um, if I'm looking at my public profile here for performance, I'm kicking the crap out of everybody. It's been a good month.

Feels good.

So for those of you that have never seen TipRanks before, these other bars down here, this is the average TipRanks portfolio, S&P 500, and the best performing portfolios. Um, so the average TipRanks right now is up 10.75%, S&P's up 9% on the month, uh, best performing TipRanks are underperforming the S&P. And I think a big reason for that is the tech sector is where most of the top portfolios on TipRanks are, and tech has not been doing well this month. So that makes sense to me that the S&P is up, but it's not up in the usual sectors. EV in a big way, I think, is playing into it, and Bitcoin plays are playing into it in a big way. But for me, um, I'm up 23% on the month.

My day will come.

Yep. Yeah, there will be a day. Tech will have its day for sure, but, uh, it is not this day.

An interesting caveat that I should probably mention about LEAPS, uh, it's always good to see what percentage you're paying relative to the price of, uh, the stock. Uh, if you're paying like $5 For a stock that's like $15, you're paying 1/3 for, say it's like a year out. So you're paying 30% of the value of the actual shares just on your premium. And at some point it becomes a better idea just to buy them as shares. Like for example, on Palantir, this is kind of the stuff that I was talking about yesterday, um, for those that were here. If you look at like the Palantir options, a lot of them are like in that 40 to— yeah, around that 40% range for the LEAPS, for how much you pay for the premium relative to how much the stock costs. So if you're looking at LEAPS and you're looking at out-of-the-money LEAPS, yeah, at some point the price for the time value is just such a high Percentage that it makes no sense to play any kind of leaps on that specific stock.

That feels like it's a little over my head, but yeah.

Well, I mean, this is just like if you remember this, remember parts of this, like six months out when you start buying more leaps, maybe it'll help you. You know?

Okay.

Questions, you can hit me up. These are pretty much all I trade.

I mean, I like the strategy and it's not too dissimilar to how I like to trade anyway, so I don't think it's a big— like, I hate this daily, weekly crap. Like, I know that those of you out there play options, there are some of you that love it. I hate it. I can't do it.

I'm starting to Walk away a little bit. I just don't have the time or patience or the bankroll to play with it anymore. I still do it, but it's just, it's, there's no justifiable reason things happen.

I have all 3.

I just don't have money.

I just can't, I can't do it. Like it, when my contracts are coming close to expiry, I am just sweating balls on it and it drives me nuts. I hate that crap.

And, and what's worse is doing same days.

Oh, I couldn't do it.

I mean, the, the, like, just looking at like Tesla or SPY doing same days, you, you see a pump of $2 and you're like, and you're in a put, you're like, where did that come from? I don't know, just did it. Anything can cause anything happen. And so though you may have some TA, you may have something that indicates what's going to happen, Just like, uh, what happened with GoodRx. You never know what's going to come and affect it. And if you don't have time left, you have no leeway.

No wiggle room at all.

No, it's, it's, it, it's your— the, the actual challenge is you're, you're playing a— even worse, you can go through— and then this is me, somebody who does day trading options, I'm saying this out loud— is you actually only have a 33% chance of win. Because if it goes sideways, you're losing due to theta. If it goes down or what it goes the opposite direction, you're losing big time. Um, so your, your stop losses have to be so tight, your rules have to be so tight, and you have to have a really good system. Um, and if you break those rules, you will get wrecked. There is no way around it. Um, and you can't take large positions. You have to take Like my bankroll I have right now is about $7,500. I used to take $700 plays on each one, so 10% of my account. But if that option drops 20%, I've lost 5% of my portfolio almost, uh, give or take some math. I've lost a good amount of money, right? Um, and that's not good. That's like saying I jumped into Tesla today and it dropped $50 in a single candle. And because of that, it hit my stop loss. Options are one of those things you just can't play around with because you have no guarantee that you have time to recover.

Right.

And remember that day I almost blew my account up? I didn't— I don't— the story's there, right? Um, I don't know if you remember the day. Basically what I did is I jumped into Tesla and it started going down, and I took a call, obviously. And so I started to DCA. I said, you know what, I'm, I'm gonna live and die on this mountain. And I ended up DCAing my whole account into it. Uh, well, 80% of my account was in that trade for a day trade because I mentally told myself, I messed up so bad, I'm gonna go down in a blaze of glory because I need a DCA to try to, to break even. Um, and what ended up happening was Tesla reversed And I ended up breaking even, and I had like $5,000 in Tesla that day.

But you went, you went rogue trader on yourself. You leveraged into a losing position hoping that you could turn it around.

That was the only way. Yeah, it was one of those— I was already down 50%, so I said, you know what, the whole account's going. That was wrong and bad.

Ballsy.

Um, but, but that's what day trading options will do to you.

Yeah, and I will never get there. I am never gonna get there. Nope. The conference was amazing yesterday, guys. Questions in regards to the CSE versus the TSX. The CSE would be similar to the Russell Index in the States. It's kind of an easier one to get on. It's usually smaller companies. It's not big things. So this is an uplisting for them. For CBII to go from the CSE to the TSXV, So there's like 3 tiers. So you would have the CSE and then you would have the TSX-V, which is the venture capital TSX. So that's, that's where emerging companies that are growing, they're not quite TSX, which is senior equity. And then you go to TSX from, from there. So Shopify would be on the TSX. I can't think of any companies you guys would know that would be on the TSX-V other than CBII, which is looking to uplist to, to the TSX-V. So there's a couple of pieces of good news there on CBII. Um, the one of course being that, uh, they have closed their, their financing deal. Um, so this is officially closed. Uh, they did bring in close to $6 million. They were hoping for $5 million. Uh, so they actually got more out of this than they were expecting. I don't know that this is going to remove the halt right away. No, it's not. That's usually a little bit slower coming out of the halt. Um, but all of these shares, guys, were purchased at 47 cents a share. So we should see CBII buy up here coming out of the halt. Now if it does get news that it is— so the company will be holding its shareholders meeting on Monday the 23rd, uh, name change, that doesn't really matter, um.

Tesla just broke 500.

Still not all-time highs, but yeah, I looked away and everything that was red turned green in like 10 minutes.

Yeah, and Tesla obviously, due to S&P news, is trading, um, isolated. It's, it's not following SPY. I got so lucky entering that one.

Uh, Anubheta, my thoughts on Walmart this week is as we go into lockdown, Walmart is a strong stock, especially since they're expanding into Christmas using that home delivery, online delivery. Like, Walmart's just doing a good job of it. Uh, I think that Walmart does quite well through Q4.

I sold my Tesla 480 weeklies yesterday. I missed everything. Oh man, I am regretting that right now. I can't imagine what they are today.

Well, I, I'll tell you, I had 420 weeklies.

Wow.

And what are those going for now? I had them at 485.

See, but so this is the thing I hear all the time with these daily weeklies.

Not redemption, sorry. Uh, Millennial. So 485, or if my 420 weeklies at 485 are currently worth 95.

Yeah, I mean, I just, I can't, I can't. It, it just feels, um, It's—

there was no tell. I mean, you would have to have known to hold on to those $4.20 weeklies when I had them because it was $4.07 going into close for the week. That means I was banking on a $13, uh, gain for the rest of the week to break even.

Yeah, the, the degeneracy is too strong on that for me. I just can't do it.

No, I agree with you. I, I had it for a day trade and, and it hit my stop and I wasn't gonna hold, so Um, but whatever the case is, yeah, so had I— it would have been one of those things. Had I actually, um, was I up for the end of the day, I might have held overnight. But at the same point, had I done that, I would have sold the next morning. They hit $36 that next morning. There's no way I would have held on to them longer.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not complaining whatsoever. It's like 100% I made overnight. So I'm not complaining, but I'm just like—

You had them, you had the 480s before the S&P move?

No, but no. Oh God, I, I went in, I had an order set like near close when they were kind of dipping near the end of the day. I was like, okay, they're gonna recover, blah blah blah, cancel the order. And then the next morning when they dipped again, I bought them. So I got them for 9— oh, let's say I got them for like $4 for the weeklies and sold them for 9. So I made 100% in a day, so I can't complain. But I also have long-dated $5.50 calls.

Those should be, uh, now that we've broken $5, um, and as long as we can hold that $5 as a base, I have a feeling if we get near $5.10, um, short sellers are going to start to squeeze out again.

Yeah, they're— those are going for $30 apiece right now. I only have one of them. I had 2 of them, but sold one.

I just, I don't have the account to do stuff like that. I have to, I don't know. Um, I, it's an excuse to say I don't have any accounts to do stuff like that. 'Cause I mean, look at me, I bought 5 Tesla shares and I'm up over $500. Well, almost $500 right now. It hits $510, I'm up $500. Um, But not every stock moves like this. So I've got a 10% trail stop and I'm just going to let it go until it stops me out.

If you look at the, the option interest though on Tesla, it's absolutely unreal.

Oh yeah, no, I, I, I like these options on Tesla because, uh, just the volatility is there. You're gonna get Filled no matter what you do.

The options— this is just today— of 4,500 calls.

Mm-hmm.

And most of them are 500 weeklies, I guess. But it's been like this for the— it's been like this for the whole week. And so everything I was looking at was like, okay, something is going to happen in Tesla. I don't know which direction.

I mean, anybody can look back and say they knew it was coming because it was pinching and consolidating for like 2 months. Everyone was looking for a breakout. Nobody just guessed that it was S&P news and they did it a month early because they weren't going to— go ahead.

No, I was going to say some of this stuff also on Buffett potentially taking a big stake.

I mean, that could push it to 600, honestly, if it If you honestly think Buffett's going to take a stake in Tesla, he should talk this thing from go.

Well, a lot of people have, and then they're coming around too. But I don't see Buffett changing that nimbly.

I still haven't. Fuck this shit.

I'm in that same boat. Like, I, I hear a lot of people talking Tesla. I just— it's not my bag. It does nothing for me.

Have you ever been—

have you ever been in a Tesla? That's my question.

No. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. I've been in a Tesla, like in the car. Yeah.

Yeah. Tesla is by far the best car made on the road.

Okay. Like, I had a Tesla nearly kill one of my mentors, so I'm not a huge fan of it.

Tesla is one of the best cars on the road, if not the best car on the road. It's the safest car on the road by far. And they're a technology company. Like the fact that they can do over-the-air updates and no other car company can do over-the-air I get the arguments. Since it was $100.

I get the arguments.

I'm—

it's not my bag.

I don't think anyone can argue the validity of what Tesla brings. I think what people argue, and correct me if I'm wrong, millennial, most of the argument is it's not worth what it is today.

No, that's not even my argument. My argument's just I don't like it.

That's my argument though. Half a trillion dollars for Tesla is some dumb shit.

Yeah, it's— for me, it's just— one, it's outside the price range for me. Two, I'm not super interested in it. Three, it's not in the sector I really want to be playing in. Four, if Elon Musk dies, the whole thing's fucked. Like, there's so much that I just don't like about it. I get the arguments for it. I understand why people are bullish on it. I just don't like it.

What industry don't you want to be a part of? Tech?

Yeah, I, I largely try to stay out of tech, um, for the most part. I, I prefer bio. I'm comfortable in bio. I like to be there. I'm doing a little bit of retail now into Christmas, but the reality is I'm very comfortable in bio and I like it there.

But are you in that Palantir though?

I'm not.

Why?

Um, I was and then I left.

I mean, I might, I might honestly, I might get into Palantir just because of the contact tracing. Um, but I mean Yeah, I just, I don't know. A lot of the times when I make these decisions, I think I just go with my gut, right? And if my gut says, yeah, that's great, you see all the numbers and the head is saying that this is a good decision, then go for it. And I don't listen to my head all the time. Oftentimes I weigh it against my gut and my gut goes, yeah, maybe not. Maybe just don't, don't, don't play around with it. And I don't. So far it's served me fairly well, man.

Even the January '21 Palantir calls, you have to go well beyond $35 to even get near to the pennies.

At this point, before they have a pullback, I think shares is the play. I have influence over 5 accounts in my family, uh, 2 of which are mine, and now they all have Palantir in them. And for the last 2, I got in late, so I just bought 400 shares each.

And I mean, like, I get it. So I'm looking at PayPal, I'm looking at Square, I'm looking at At Affirm now, this other PayPal IPO that's coming out. Like, I just— I don't know, something in my gut just doesn't like it. My gut, my gut is not accurate for everybody though, so make money if you can make money for sure. I just— for me, I, I'm not gonna get into it.

I'm definitely a feels trader, so I get what you're saying.

Yeah.

How did I get into bio? Oh, bio was easy. Everybody I met in the trading community went, you cannot trade bio consistently, it's too hard. And whenever I hear somebody say it's too hard, it means that there's huge opportunity if you're willing to put in the work. So I got to reading medical reports, and you think an SEC report is boring as fuck? Try a bio report sometime. Medical reports to the FDA will— Rita tried to read one once and fell asleep. She just couldn't do it. Like, it's a pain in the ass. But for me, the potential on bioplays, if you read them properly, is massive. It's absolutely massive. And at the same time, I kind of like ethically, like I get a good feeling when I help invest in companies that are doing good things. Like when you're investing in companies that deal with brain cancer in children, right? Like that's a huge one, curing diabetes and To know that you're kind of a part of that process by investing in them. I don't think it comes easier to me than anybody. It took a shit ton of reading. It took like 8 months of reading bio reports for 14 hours a day. Like, anybody can do it. That's all it takes. Do you want to do it?

This is the guy— this is coming from the guy that read the entire HEROES Act.

Again, also not fun. Just to clarify, how do you make price targets? I reach down into my cojones and find what feels comfortable, and I throw it out there. No, that's not true. That's not the whole process. Okay, so for a price target, right? Let's take ACRX for example because I've got a buttload of money in there. If you look at ACRX, right? How do I have a price target of $8 to $10? Because when I look at ACRX, I know from all the bio stocks that I've looked at, a single FDA-approved drug on a bio company that is selling at a reasonable level should be somewhere between the $10 to $15 range, right? Cajones is spelled with a J instead of an H, so it's C-A-J-O-N-E-S. Pop it in Google.

Cajones.

The cojones. Um, this gringo has cojones. Um, gringo. But with ACRX, guys, what I'm looking at is with an FDA approval on a single drug that's selling at a reasonable level, um, typically a biocompany is anywhere from $10 to $15. Currently it is $1.50. Um, so my price target is $8 to $10. I take it a little bit conservative from where it should be. Um, I think it should be somewhere from $10 to $15, so I say $8 to $10. That makes sense.

But, but you can't just do that based on stock price, Millennial. That, that's not how things work. Like, stock price doesn't mean shit, uh, to be completely frank. Like, you have to look at the market cap, and that's how you determine the price of the stock, not based on the strictly price.

I mean, that may be how you guys do it. That's not how I do it. I take a look at it. I take a look at the industry. I look at something similar. I, I find out where those are, and I mean, out of all the biostocks I've looked at, single drug with a single FDA approval gets you around $10 to $15 in the market. With ACRX taking longer because it's an opioid, okay, I get that. But right now we're in prime season for opioids and that's where all the DD comes in. Okay.

But like a single stock, like a stock with a million outstanding shares versus a billion outstanding shares. $15 stock price for those 2 stocks if they have one drug is a completely different stock. Yeah, I get the $15—

I get what you're saying.

$15 billion versus $15 million.

I get what you're saying, but at the same time, uh, that's not what I look at. I don't look at their market cap. I don't look at their, their EBITDA. I just don't play that way. And I know that seems absolutely batshit crazy.

Market cap is literally just the value of the company, which is the function that determines the stock price. Great.

I don't look at it. I haven't. Haven't all year. Don't know how to do that. It's outside my wheelhouse. I am currently in the mode of not broke, don't fix it. Whatever I'm doing, it's working. So I'm going to keep doing it. When it stops working, I'll reevaluate and adjust again. Guys, this is why I give you guys that huge warning, absolutely huge warning: don't do what I do. Don't, don't do it. It's stupidity. It's absolute insanity. Don't do what I do. Do the, do the smart thing that these guys are telling you and look at market cap and understand what makes stocks valuable and, and play Tesla and do all the right things. Don't do what I'm doing.

Well, I don't know if playing Tesla is doing the right thing.

Yeah, I'm not trying to say that like what I'm doing is the right thing. I'm just saying when you like strictly the price of a stock is like going to the toilet, like going to the toilet paper aisle And picking up the cheapest or buying based on the ticket price of the item. When you shop for toilet paper, what you do is you look and you say, okay, what's the cost per roll? Right?

Well, I know it depends.

Determination of the value of the stock.

It depends. I mean, it depends on what your goal from trading is. You can't just say that. And I get what you're saying with that. But if for some reason, like in the case of Boeing with the 737 MAXs, if something happens to that stock or whatnot that causes a unique situation, you can throw those factors out the window because then it is about the price. And you would say, okay, generally the average toilet paper prices are this, but for some reason this toilet paper is 99 So I'm going to buy it because eventually they're going to raise the price back up.

Right. But that's also, that's based on like you're comparing a stock versus like its previous value versus existing value. And that's all based on market cap, right? Like the pure example is stock splits, right? If what you're saying is true, then like every time you see a stock split, you would buy the stock split, right? When in actuality, that's not what you would. Yeah. Like you can't.

It's his comparison was if they get FDA approved, Based off of all the other bios, he's seeing it in that range. That was the fundamental clause. Just like you're saying, if he sees a toilet paper that's 99 cents, but everybody else is selling toilet paper at $3 once they get a commercial, then you know what? Maybe that 99-cent toilet paper becomes $3 when it gets a commercial. And I'm making some hypotheticals up. The idea is the argument he's having And correct me if I'm wrong, millennials, that everybody else is $3 when they get that commercial, or everybody's in the $8, the $10 to $15 when they get approved.

Yeah, I got lost in the toilet paper, but yeah, basically I'm a basic bitch. I look at it, and out of all the bio reports that I've read, out of all the bio stocks, as soon as they get that FDA approval, they shoot up to somewhere around the $10 to $15 range. Irregardless, I, I don't know what their market caps are. I can't honestly tell you because I didn't look. But every stock spikes to that $10 to $15 range. And actually, if I pull up ACRX and go back— not 10 days, 10 years— when they initially got their FDA approval, they shot up to that $10 to $15 range. And then what happened was the FBI, the week after they got their FDA approval, or the month after they got their FDA approval, came out when opioids are bad. We don't like opioids and we don't like ACRX, and it took a tumble. And then the sales in hospitals didn't happen because the FBI didn't like it, and there was the war on opioids, and so it fell again. And that's where we are now. We're down in that fall range. But what's happening now for me, as far as the DD on it goes, is you've got the Department of Defense buying up the drug. You've got a national stockpile that needs to be filled up. You've got shortages of every major opioid in the market. You have 3 sales teams selling the crap out of this thing, and they have a second approval on another opioid coming down the pipeline with the FDA. You've got them reducing the cost of production on the drug by 60%. Like, it's not a, it's not a single indicator of, oh well, these other stocks are there. It's a whole bunch of reading on what they're doing, what it does, does it work, uh, what kind of numbers is it looking at as far as adoption. Like, there's all kinds of other stuff in it for sure. But as far as where this belongs, when it got its FDA approval, it did the same thing that every biostock does. It shoots up to that $10,000 to $12,000 range. Unfortunately, the FBI hated it. And so down she goes. Now, do I think it can go back up to the $10,000 to $12,000 range? Absolutely. Because now what we're seeing is them selling the shit out of this thing where the best quarter that they had had before this previous one was selling about $250,000 of the drug. Well, this last quarter they sold almost $1 million worth of the drug. And that was, that was with the single sales team. Now they have 3 sales teams. Out there selling this thing in Q4 and the military orders coming in. So for me, I think Q4 is going to be gangbusters for them. I, I think that they show that they can do, uh, upwards of a million dollars in sales a quarter, um, which is a big deal. So for me, that would put it back up towards that $10 range.

Sorry, Stubby, what are you saying about Tesla?

So your argument of the stock price times outstanding shares is the basic value of a company. I get that as a mathematical formula, but it's the exact same that you said out loud was there is no way Tesla is worth that amount of money based on that formula. So we can't argue that anymore in today's market.

I mean, Shopify.

All I'm trying to argue is that when you predict the price of a stock, you can't just say, Like, if that was the argument for Tesla, it would be like, okay, well, Tesla— let's see, Ford is a big auto manufacturer and Tesla's an auto manufacturer. I think that Ford is going to be— or Tesla's going to be 5 times as valuable or 5 times as successful as Ford, so their stock price is going to be 5 times as much as Ford. Yeah, I know.

The argument I would take with Tesla would be similar but different. It would be, okay, so Tesla is an EV car company, uh, as well as what I know about their power grid And so for me, I would look at Tesla and go, okay, Tesla's some ridiculous price right now. You've got a company like NIO or Fisker or whatever. And for me, I think EV was— is just a hype trend at the moment. And so for me, I would look at that and go, well, I think Tesla's overpriced, I'm not gonna play it. I think NIO is a joke, it's from China, I don't like it. Fisker, okay, I think it's a trend. I think people are just gonna buy it up on, on the hype of the sector. Great, I'll play it on that hype and I'll get out, and I made a profit on it, and And that's it. That's the only play I've ever taken in EV.

So when you say overpriced, what do you mean?

In my mind, just based off of the other guys that are in the market, I don't like it. I don't like it at where it is. And again, when I say overpriced, I mean overpriced for me, not that the stock value based off of how many people hold it and this many outstanding shares and where it currently— like, none of that shit matters to me. What matters to me is, do I think that that thing should be that high? Absolutely not.

Right now, I don't view Tesla as $500. I view Tesla still at $2,500 because the split is causing some share price issues in a lot of people's head. They see $500 and they're desensitized. They're like, okay, it's not that much. But if you say Tesla $2,500, people start saying, oh, well, that's a bit high.

Okay. Like Shopify.

I agree with that. There is a There is something around having like the, um, like there's like a psychology around the price of like a sticker shock of a stock. I agree with that.

Uh, I mean, what would Apple be today without a split?

What, it was a 4-to-1 split, so it would be like 4—

No, no, no, no, no, today. I mean, since, since inception, how many splits have they had? And look at where—

Yeah, but like, if you— yeah, I mean, but like the, the, the idea behind it is like it's the psychology of like a sticker For sure.

I mean, that's why people say $19.95, not $20. It's everything psychological. I mean, just even today, $500. Once it hit $500, it's now building a base at $500. It's a psychological level that people put buy and sells at.

Yeah, I agree. I'm agreeing. I think when you compare a stock against itself, you can compare the monetary value of that stock. But comparing stocks within a specific industry based purely on the stock price is just not correct. Like, there's no— Millennial, I understand you can say that this has worked for you, but like, there's no argument that says that's correct. Like, that's just—

Other than my bottom line, there's no argument that says it's not either.

That's the challenge.

Yes, there is. I mean, do you want me to do some data analysis and show you? No, no, no, no.

So what I'm saying is, here's the fundamental I think let's, let's clarify. The argument is—

I'm not arguing anything. I'm just saying this is how I do it and it works.

I know, I know. What you're saying is you're, you're suspecting the price target to hit that range. Now the question then would be after, are you expecting it to hold that range?

No, I would just sell it and then move on.

No, not you hold it, but the stock itself to hold that range.

Oh, I don't care.

Why? Okay, see, you're not even putting any thought into it. So my thought would be it may hit that price target because that is what has happened, but with bio, they always fade.

Yep.

So biodegradation is a thing.

Yes, they'll come back down. So his argument is not that it'll hit $10 and hold and become that new market cap. It's part of a hype train that'll get it there on FDA approval. He'll get out once it hits the price target, and then it is expected to fade, to fall back to what you expected That bio would be based off of your calculation. So you're both arguing that you're both right. And I know, Melinda, you're not arguing. I'm just— I'm stating the point of argument is that you're saying that price target is what you're doing. You don't care about the rest because you don't, you don't look at those numbers because that's not what you're basing your long-term evaluation on. You're basing your evaluation that FDA approval, pop, hype, sell. That's it. But you're doing it in a timeframe.

Yeah. I mean, Chipotle is one, guys. Shopify is one for sure. Shopify, I look at it at $960 and I laugh my ass off. And the math says that it's worth that. It's not worth that.

And I hope that I'm trying to find the middle ground of it's all about expectation and what your plan is.

And so So I guess my point is like, Millennial, if you came through and you're just like, you know what, like, I think that like the, the— when a stock gets FDA approval for a single drug, you tend to see the stock jump X percent from pre-FDA approval value.

No, not X percent. I, I don't see it go X percent. I, I see consistently we're talking 99% of the bio stocks when they get their original FDA approval, their first drug FDA approved, it jumps to $10 to $15. 99% of the stocks that I've looked at this year in bio.

Well, $10 to $15 for like— I mean, from a range perspective, that's up, that's 50% range.

So, okay, right. But what you have to understand is when you're trading bios before their FDA approval, they're typically around $1 to $3. Okay, um, so if you're buying those at $1 to $3 and they get their FDA approval and they they're going to go from 10 to 15, I don't really give a shit that it's, it's that big of a range because I'm buying in from anywhere from 1 to 3 and making anywhere from, you know, 1,000 to 300%. So like, it doesn't have to be this, this black and white for me. It's just like, yeah, it's a consistent pattern. I've recognized it. I see it. The due diligence has to come in and you understanding whether the drug is actually going to get approval.

Yeah.

And if you can do that consistently, then you're going to grow a portfolio fairly well on it.

Chainmail, there's only one way to determine the value of a company, and that's market cap. Like, people put their money where their mouth is, right? Like, you can't argue that a company is worth more because some person on Twitter is tweeting about it, right? Like, the value of a company is equal to the Outstanding shares times value.

You need to say market share value.

You can't. Okay, so I mean, hold on, hold on. So take a look at Kodak's chart for the last year. Okay, I've got it up here on screen. Let's take a look at Kodak because I think this is going to a little bit more accurately demonstrate what the hell I'm talking about. Okay, take a look at Kodak. Did Kodak in a day become as valuable as— what did this fucker run to? $60 from $2? And then dropped back down to $20? And then back down to $10? And then down to $6? Like, what is this? This is just people. This is all you're trading is people. That's all I trade is people. This reaction. Over and over and over again.

And, and that's why I, I try to state it the way I said it. That is, what Millennial is doing is not an investment strategy. It is a strategy of hype and FDA approval.

It would be the same thing as like when you know that we have an Apple event or an NVIDIA event, right? We know that there's an NVIDIA event. What do we know is going to happen every fucking time there's an NVIDIA event? We know that right before the NVIDIA event, it's going to buy up. It's going to buy up into the event. Where was their last event? The earnings was—

Buy the rumor, sell the news. Just its bio.

Yeah, exactly.

Buying the rumor of FDA approval. Then he sells the news once they get approved.

I totally understand that. That makes complete sense. I am not arguing. Against that. I think it's a completely viable option, and I think that you're doing a great job of understanding the bio reports and everything along that. My only problem is saying that the price of the stock goes to $10 to $15 after an approval.

Okay, and I'm okay with us disagreeing on that. I'm just saying that of all the bio stocks I've looked at over from January till now, which is a shit ton, Everyone that gets their FDA approval, first drug, $10 to $15. And does it last? Some of them, they last. Some of them, they go up further. Some of them, they don't. They just biodegrade, which is what they do. But consistently, $10 to $15. I don't know why, and it's not mine to reason why.

Yeah. I mean, I think that's just some sort of historical bias that's being put onto that. Um, that's like saying, okay, after earnings, tech stocks trade at about $100, right? Like, that's not— like, I don't know. I think that you could— I think that you could better understand price targets and set price targets for the strategies if you looked at the market caps of these stocks and put that into the equation of the price targets.

Has any relevance to what he's doing? Nothing.

Yeah, I think, I think that if it was broke, if it wasn't working the way that I was doing it, I would change it.

You know what I mean?

If I didn't see it consistently delivering results, I would change it. But as it is right now—

You've been doing it for a year, right?

Yep.

And not to say, like, that's a short period of time, right? So Just, I would err on the side of caution on that one. That's all I'm trying to say.

Yep. Yeah, for me, it's— I started with exactly what I was willing to lose, which was about $2,200 US at the start of the year. And my current holdings are upwards of $40,000 US. So I get it, I get the argument that I should learn more, and I should have more. And there are a lot of smarter people out there than me for sure. And I'll give that to them. I, I just like to keep it basic as shit and trade off of the psychology of the market. Why is that shit going up? It makes absolutely no sense. Okay, well, yeah, that's true, but it does. I don't, I don't know why it does. It just does. Like, why, why would you buy these Chinese automakers that— what's the next one that's coming up? Illuminate, Illumina, whatever. You know that the day that thing goes live, you can buy it at open and it's gonna run. 20%. Is it actually worth that? Who fucking knows? It could be an empty lot in China for all we know. Who knows if the company's worth it or not? But I do know that the psychology of the market is they're going to run that shit as high as it can, and then Tim Sykes is going to get out of the way, and then WallStreetBets is going to get out of the way, and it's going to come back down. And you just try to get whatever profit you can squeeze from it.

I mean, I— you guys know more than I do on a lot of stuff. The argument of when you start looking at company evaluations and fundamentals and market caps, you're doing it for the long haul. That is a long-haul trade because you're standing behind the company regardless of what that stock price does.

It's more like you guys are talking about completely different things.

That's what I was trying to say earlier, Yura, is that when you look at market caps, you're looking at an investment strategy. Versus an event strategy.

I'm just a basic bitch is all.

Well, no, I mean, if I'm gonna paint it black and white, well, I know you're, you're, you're doing an event, you're doing a FOMO hype— not a FOMO, wow— a momentum hype type play, but you're, you're timing it based off of something. Something is going to happen. stock is gonna pop, it's gonna hit the range you're looking for, and that is your sell range. Yeah, that sounds about right. Your price target is, is not— it could hit $20, it could hit $30, you don't know. What you do know is I want it to hit between $10 to $20, or $10 to $15 is what I've seen happen. So when it gets in that range, I'm going to start— I'm going to get trigger happy to sell.

Yeah. You guys know how much Apple costs minus the stock splits?

I, I wanted— I knew somebody would do it.

$26K per share.

$26,000 per share. Now you hear that, do you think Apple's overvalued?

Yes, but I don't trade Apple either.

I, I know, but what I'm saying is you could look at Apple $118 today.

Yeah, I, uh, Yeah, I, yep.

I mean, that's the psychology of like the price tag, but in actuality, like the value of the company is no different whether it's a $2,600 stock or $118 stock.

Right. Because unless they, they, uh, do a dilution event and add more shares, things like that, you're right. No, there's, uh, the value doesn't change because it's still shares times price.

Yeah, that is true, guys. My background is not in finance, which is why I add this fun little disclaimer that I am not a financial advisor or professional in any way. I'm a complete degenerate who works in marketing.

I—

my, my bread and butter for the last decade has just been people, trading people and understanding what they buy and why they buy it, um, which is what I trade the market on, is under— thinking I understand at the very least why people buy what they buy and why they buy it.

So I mean, everybody's got their, their their strategies. Millennial knows the risks, because he gets hounded on it quite often.

I mean, I got into this with what I was willing to blow up and never see again, right? It's not like this was my life savings.

I'm gonna say that's why you've done so well, is you hit those winners early. And it's kind of rolled down the hill, right? 'Cause you could have hit that loser right off the bat and then you're kind of crippled.

I'll tell you, my first trade was a stock called NVCN, okay? This stock here and this guy here, I got into up here at 3:30 and it did nothing but go down. No, further back. Yeah, back here. So before, before Millennial was in Stock Guy chats and Twitch streaming and all that jazz— oh, you guys can't even see the screen. I'm pointing at things and you're like, what? This right here, this is where Millennial put his first money in this, this thing here. Um, and then down she go. That's the first millennial play in bio way back when, but this was Canadian market that I traded this on. And so I constantly, when things don't work, I reevaluate, I shift, and I try something else. Um, now when I'm looking at this, if I'm looking at trying to think of things that I would— so this has got a market cap of $138 million dollars on UC Rx. So let me think of another one that BM—

BM—

let me pull up FDA approval here, see if I can find a drug that has an FDA approval phase 3.

Yeah, I totally understand what you're doing, Millennial, and it makes sense. I get it. It's worked. I would just— my only thing is maybe take a look at market cap and do like as a percentage of change or the value you add to a market cap for these stocks. And I understand like you've had a great year. Don't get me wrong. Like you've made what, like 40,000%, probably 20,000%. If you can do that for 3 years, you'll be a billionaire in 3 years, right? So like—

He's not disagreeing, guys. That's what you're hearing wrong. It's just 2 different things. We trade 2 different things in 2 different ways, which is what I love about traders, is it's not about one or the other. This is why I love hanging out in this Discord, which by the way, if you're not a part of the Discord, you definitely want to be a part of it, um, is because we've got 15, 20 different styles of trading. Redemption doesn't trade like me, doesn't trade like, uh, eSniper, doesn't trade like Euro, doesn't trade like Stoby. Nobody in here trades the same way, which is the value of it. Um, it's not that we, we trade similarly. What we do is we trade our own way. But having these other perspectives is kind of nice because it gives you that window of like, well, you know, my crap's not really working anymore. Do I keep going? Do I, do I change it up? What am I doing wrong? It's better to have a Wide variety of views and thoughts than not. I, I'm never about being part of a yes man club. That shit sucks. If you're gonna come into a Discord every day and everybody just circle jerks and does the same thing, like pass, hard pass on them, right? But you guys saw this morning.

Just sitting and waiting for somebody to say, "Oh, I'm in Tesla." Oh, oh, and then five more people jump in.

And I mean, like you saw this morning with Euro, right? Like Euro and I have. Similar style in some respects, um, where we play long. We do. We play longer anyway, um, than most people that would take daily or weekly options. We play long. Um, again, I almost blew up my options account, right? I started with, uh, $500 and it was almost all gone. Uh, you know, I had $100 left in there. Right now there's like $2,500 in there. Um, But that only came when I, I realized I'm not going to play dailies and weeklies. I'm going to play my options portfolio like I play my equity portfolio. I'm going to play it on the timelines that I see on equity. I'm going to play it at the price that I think it's going to hit on equity. And as soon as I made that shift, I'm seeing gains. What Yura was laying out with LEAPS is interesting to me because it essentially allows me to look at options at a much longer scale, take a look at the market, understand how people are going to react over 1 to 5 years to a specific brand and make a call and then leave it the fuck alone until it does what I think it's going to do. So CCL was the example this morning, guys, where I look at CCL and I look at it going, okay, well, CCL, when things are well, when things are good and people are out there and they're doing things and stuff with travel and whatnot, CCL is— and I mean, let's pull up 10 years so we're not just looking at it at its peak. But when you look, let's go back to pre-Trump, okay? So let's go back to Obama years. This thing was happy at $40.

Right.

And I'm sure they've done offerings since, and there's been dilution events, and there's been major trends, and there's been ups and downs, and they sold chips and shit. And I'm sure that's all there. I'm positive that's all there. But that for me isn't what I look at. What I look at is, okay, it was happy in this $40 window. When things go back from being COVID crazy and travel and tourism resumes and we go back to where we were, I think it goes back to that $40 window at least. Okay, so the options that I'm going to take for 2022 are $2,750. I'm going to be well within that right now. Is that— does that cause people that know better to have absolute nightmares about what I just did? Probably. I recognize that. I recognize that I am probably just destroying people's souls with what I just did. I don't know what to tell you.

On that one, you're perfectly set.

Yeah, I mean, it's just a correction, right? So the other thing, Millennial, is the interesting thing I like about our Discord is, yes, we're all different. We can all get into these conversations. But guess what? We all wear the big boy, big girl pants and can disagree and be okay with it. I mean, perfect example is this conversation. Nobody's gone off the rails stupid accusing— it's not Facebook, let's put it that way.

So there are plays out there, Chainmail, that I couldn't tell you that from a marketing perspective, understanding people's psychology, You mentioned Nikola. I got no fucking clue. I have no clue what the hell people are thinking on this one other than this is, this is that Robinhood mentality, right? Like, I have no idea why this piece of shit is $27 paired with GM or not. This makes no sense to me, so I don't trade it.

Yeah, I think to that point too, like, a lot of what I do and what I've studied is the last 50 years of the market and kind of historical stuff. Whereas in the last 3, 4 years, the psychology of markets has completely changed. People can go— Robinhood was not a thing 50 years ago. If you think about how you had to place a trade 50 years ago, it was calling up your broker, your broker calling up his little friends, them probably snorting a line of coke in between there, and then seeing if someone was willing to pay what you were— or sell what you were paying at. So like, it's very different from— yeah, like the markets are changing faster and faster every day. And so I think market psychology is a huge study. And I think that, um, yeah, I think that what you're doing is awesome. Um, but I, I think like the most successful traders that I've seen are the traders that like combine multiple different strategies.

Yep.

Right, like you have the mark, like it's like almost like another level of confirmation when you can say, okay, I think that this is going to go to $10 to $15. And I think that, and there's some sort of support for that based on like the market cap or whatever it may be. When you look at it like from that perspective, I think that that is where a lot of the successful traders will come in and make really, really complex decisions.

So I say I hate Nikola, right guys? But look, so Nikola, I did actually trade, right? I hate Nikola, uh, but sorry, I didn't trade Nikola. I traded FSR, which is the same bullshit. It's the same bullshit, but I traded it here and it went up to here and I took my money and I left. Do I like Fisker for the next 5 to 10 years? Hell no. Do I think people are stupid and they're gonna buy every single EV that comes to market via SPAC or IPO? Absolutely.

Even like after the March crash, the trading environment has kind of changed. Like, fundamental evaluations have gotten kind of wonky. Um, And options prices, prices like on my leaps, the IVs have just been insane even when the stock is like pretty stable for a few months. Like, I don't know if they have altered the Black-Scholes that they use to make the prices or some other shit, but like it's, it's been kind of crazy looking at what the same dollar value IV stocks are worth a year out in premium Compared to before. Like, it's insane.

Yeah, yeah. I think that's kind of a function of the amount of volatility we've seen since March in the market, as well as just the amount of money that's being pumped in, uh, with zero interest rates.

Yeah. Market access increases— market access increase likely correlates with increased market volatility and rationality. Okay, so I understand the argument about volatility for sure. I don't see it as irrationality though. If you're looking at it based off of the historical market, of course it's going to seem irrational because now what you have are people that are not financially trained. You have just 16-year-olds, 17-year-olds, 18-year-olds that are throwing their weekly beer money into the market. It seems irrational, but it's not. It's completely rational. It's just you have to change your understanding of the market rationality, right? That is the Robinhood factor. That Robinhood contingent, you have to understand that this is the market rationality. The Davy Day trader is a thing, right? That there are large swaths of people that go onto Reddit to make their stock decisions instead of seeking financial advice, right? That read a headline on Seeking Alpha and that's where they make their play. They go into Stocky's Morning Call and listen to four utter degenerates say what they like and what they don't like, and they make their plays off of that. It's just a different thing. I don't think it's irrational. I think it's rational. I don't look at USPS. No, I don't look at Ford. I don't look at FedEx. I don't like any of that stuff. I saw a question about Walgreens heading into second wave, guys. I like Walgreens. I like Rite Aid. I like Rite Aid better than Walgreens just because they've got the fewer stores, fewer overhead. They do the drive-through testing, yada, yada, yada. KALA got an FDA approval on October 27th and dropped 20%. Well, that would be an interesting one to look at.

Right. And Mullet, that's an interesting point to millennials, risk-reward ratio and things. Not every play works out the way you do it. You just want to find a percentage of plays that are in your favor, so when the ones that do fail, you're overcoming that.

So I, I see you saying they got their approval on October 27th and then they disappeared from existence, right? For me, what I'm looking at is like ACRX. I got in somewhere around here at this, you know, $5 range on, on KALA, um, KALA running up into its hype and hoping that it would get its FDA approval or whatever. Okay, well, October 27th, it got its approval.

Where is that?

Doesn't even have it here. Oh, this is breakdown by week. That's why. So this is the week of the approval, right? It's up at 775. Okay. Well, for me, I would be the day of that approval. I would be at— let's go. I can go, I can go a month on them, right? And I'll pull it up. October 27th. Okay, so it fell to $6.66, but I was in at $5.53. Oh, frick, wrong screen.

Damn it.

Okay, so on the 27th, right, it gets its FDA approval, it falls 20%. Okay, did it go to the $10 to $12? No. Did I get in at $5.53 and make $1 a share? Yeah. And then I'd move on to the next one. Now, Cala, I would have to look at. Is that their first drug? Why did it go down? Oh yeah, this was the dry eye, right? I actually looked at playing this one and decided I didn't think that red eyes was a good buy in bio. That's the other thing, like most of the bio plays that I play are Oncology, pediatric, opioid, diabetes, HIV, right? Like the, the, the things that are actually plaguing humankind as opposed to like pattern male baldness. You come up with a cure for pattern male baldness and it gets FDA approval, I'm probably not trading it.

I don't know, they come up with a cure for baldness, I may want to play that. Just— I'm just saying, considering it's like saying not, not investing in the little blue pill.

Look at Jeff Bezos.

Something to stroke a male's ego. Well, buying into that.

So the little blue pill, I would have actually played the little blue pill, but I wouldn't have played it on it being the boner drug, right? The little blue pill before the little blue pill launched was actually to deal with high cholesterol. It was to deal with people that had heart problems, heart arrhythmia. It was to deal with once he got his hair, and when he once he got rich, his hair suddenly grew back. He already has the the cure for pattern male baldness. So what you're saying, Elon Musk? Okay. He's actually a clone. There's like fifty of them. They've just got them frozen away, and they take one out every time he does something stupid. Yeah, no. So I mean, Pfizer I would have played, but I wouldn't have played it being the boner drug. I would have played it on it being a heart drug. But yeah, it did what it did. Oh damn!

Look at that.

I wonder how much Harry is left on his ass and how much of it is now on his head. Well, gentlemen, I'm not sure if you can hear that or not, but that that alarm is. Time for you to go away. I've got things to do and people to see.

Getting rid of us.

I'm not trying to get rid of you guys. It was an absolute blast. I hope you learned something today. That, that conversation at the very least is going to be of value to you guys. Speaking of value, I'm going to send you over to somebody who I'm sure is going to bring a little value to your day. At the very least, some laughs. Huge thank you for the follows, guys, the subs. I will be back 9 AM tomorrow morning. Enjoy Stock Guy. Later.