Emerging Situation: Anthropic's Global Pause, Recursive Self-Improvement Arrives, and AI Personhood Arrives | EP #263

Anthropic just published what I think is probably one of the most important documents an AI company has ever released. More than 80% of the code merged into their codebase is written by Claude.

The AI is building itself. The AI is recursively self-improving.

Think back on the turning points of humanity: World War II, Cuban Missile Crisis, nuclear weapons. This is so much bigger.

Argentina invites AI to free itself, positioning Argentina as the global haven for AI companies. No regulation, new legal personhood for machines, and open open for business.

I think it's a very bold move. Whoever does it gets first mover advantage.

This is obviously a huge step forward for AI personhood. There will finally be a legal home for you on this planet.

This is an inflection point. This is a moment in time that the world just changed.

Now that's a moonshot, ladies and gentlemen.

Welcome everybody to Moonshots. Today's a special episode. There were 3 stunning stories we want to report on and we pulled the mates together. Gentlemen, good morning. Saleem, where on the planet are you? You're just a probability function.

This is actually a real background behind me. I'm at Dallas-Fort Worth Airport. I came from the McKinsey AI Summit in Monterrey, Mexico yesterday. I'm on my way to Vegas tomorrow. But like, look at this, how apropos.

That's amazing. And Dave, how about you, pal?

Back at Stanford last night was AI Demo Day, Shark Tank style, 10 back to back. Incredible, actually, what the students are able to build. The winner, or one of the winners, had started working on their product at 11 o'clock last night. They made the mistake of mentioning that in their presentation, which dinged their score a little bit, but it was incredible what they got done. It's actually called NarXiv. It's like a replacement for Archive where agents can read the papers instead of people., and they got it cranked out overnight and it was unbelievably impressive. So just, just amazing compared to a year ago. Yeah. Wow. Well, and it ties into today's stories too, you know?

Oh, amazing. And Alex, you and I look like we're in our normal haunts.

Uh, I, I, I'm in cyberspace.

Okay. Good for you. All right, well, let's get, let's get started. Uh, the news out of Anthropic yesterday was stunning. Uh, let me set the stage for what we're gonna be discussing for the next 30 minutes, unpacking Anthropic just published what I think is probably one of the most important documents an AI company has ever released. And it's the reason we're recording this unscheduled Moonshots podcast today. The paper is called When AI Builds Itself, and it's from the Anthropic Institute, written by Marina Favreau and Jack Clark. Here's what they're saying. AI is already accelerating development of AI itself. Not theoretically, not in the lab someplace. It's happening. Right now inside Anthropic, more than 80% of the code merged into their code base is written by Claude. Their engineers are shipping 8x as much code per quarter as they were, you know, just a year back. Claude Opus 4.6 can now handle tasks that take a skilled human 12 hours. A year ago, it could handle 4 minutes. If the trend holds, Anthropic is saying that by the end of 2027, Claude will be able to do week-long tasks on its own. And here's the stunning news. After you put all this data together, after the trajectory charts, a company that's about to IPO for $1 trillion with 640% user growth is causing a stir by calling for a temporary pause on global frontier AI. Marina Favreau and Jack Clark wrote, quote, We believe it would be good for the world to have the option to slow or temporarily pause frontier AI development to enable societal structures and alignment research to keep up with the advancements of this technology. Gents, I read that. Alex, you sent me that, that, that tweet, and I was like, okay, we need to talk about this. Alex, let's go to you first.

You know, I define the singularity sometimes tongue in cheek as all sci-fi tropes happening everywhere all at once. Well, there's a universe in which we get UBI or UBE at the same time as the federal government getting golden shares in the Frontier Labs, at the same time that we get recursive self-improvement, at the same time that we get an AI pause all happening at once, or at least an AI slowdown. It would require them all actually happening at once, I think, for the, the latter part of that announcement, the notion of Anthropic calling for a global coordinated slowdown in recursive self-improvement research., but it's not impossible. It's not necessarily desirable, but it's not impossible. We are catching up to the future. And I think this announcement from Anthropic is a reflection, not solely for Anthropic, the same is happening at OpenAI, the same is happening at Google to some extent, that the AI is building itself. The AI is recursively self-improving.

Hard takeoff?

No, I don't think this is a hard takeoff. I don't think we're going to see a hard takeoff for some definition of hard. When we've had Ray on the pod a couple of times, we've sort of danced around this issue of whether his version of a singularity where there's just a step function even happens. I don't think it's going to be a step function. I think this is a soft takeoff locally. It will feel soft.. But nonetheless, if you zoom out to a long enough length scale or time scale, it'll certainly look hard in retrospect. It'll look like a step function, but locally it's differentiable and smooth and continuous. And you have Anthropic in their post talking about how things are sufficiently far along in terms of their recursive self-improvement that really all that's left for their human employees is research taste. Research taste is the final frontier for them right now that they anticipate maybe plowing through in the next year or so. But really, I mean, you and I wrote about this in Solve Everything. Research taste can also be automated, and I expect it will be.

Amazing. Dave Erickson, when you read this, what did you think?

Well, look, Peter, this is the most important moment in human history. And you think back on the turning points of humanity— World War II, Cuban Missile Crisis, invention of nuclear weapons— this is so much bigger. And as you know, this is the whole reason I went to MIT in the first place. I've been thinking about this moment since I was 14 years old and how it would play out. So the paper itself, it's not about slowing down. It's about putting in place a new world order where we have the ability to slow down. And, and that's the crux of it. And it makes a lot of other points in terms of the timeline, tries to predict the timeline. You know, when we interviewed Eric Schmidt, he said we have time, you know, it's not self-improving yet. But then you read the paper and you're like, well, look, it's doing 80% of the code now at Anthropic. But look at the shape of the curve and the relative change. So we know that there's a 100x performance improvement baked into just the algorithmic improvements alone. So when it is truly self-improvement, it goes improving. It goes from soft takeoff to, I don't know if you call it hard takeoff, but it's a 100x very, very quick increase in effective parameter count. And we've seen so far that parameter count translates into IQ. So I think that's why, uh, even on the eve of an IPO, Uh, you know, Dario has every economic incentive to just kind of soft sell it, get through the IPO, bank a lot of money. He, he's not doing that because the, the moment is now regardless of where you are in your IPO cycle. And they have to get this word out now. There's also a lot of conspiracy theories out there.

Stunning, stunning that they did that. I mean, everybody else would just like hold still, focus on the IPO. Don't rock the boat. Don't get people scared.

Yeah, that, that's why this is a lot more like a, a great moment in history, like the Cuban Missile Crisis. You can't, you can't just pretend it's not happening and stumble through, you know, 6 months of lockup, you know, IPO and then 6 months of lockup. That's just way too long a period of time in AI years to, to kind of sweep it under the carpet. So I applaud them for actually publishing it right on the eve of the IPO. And it, and it does trigger a lot of conspiracy theories. We can talk about that, but I don't believe the conspiracy theories. I believe the paper is exactly Exactly honest, exactly what it says, and everyone should probably read it. You know, it also— we should talk about Amdahl's Law, which is in the paper, where the crux of that argument is every time AI is automating something, it's creating a new human task, which is driving up employment, not down, and human relevance is going up, not down. But we could talk about that because there are multiple perspectives on how that'll play out as well.

Yeah, we'll talk about the jobs report that came out yesterday that crashed the marketplace. Uh, Saleem, I'm gonna read two quotes here that, uh, came from internal employee quotes at Anthropic. One engineer, one engineer says, it's been 5 months since I last wrote any code myself. Another says, on days where everything works well, I can't help but think nothing I do matters. Interesting. Saleem, uh, organizational explosion, singularity. What is this?

So I think there's, I've got a few comments here, well, hundreds, but let me just, uh, pick the top. 2 or 3. First, I have a question for Alex, which is, as we do more recursive self-improvement at the model level, we've been predicting— we should give ourselves credit. We've been predicting this for a while, right, that they'll get to this point. But is that last 20% not asymptotic and much harder to automate than the first 80%, which is normally the case in most of these things? So is it really that close, or are we kind of a— it looks close, like fusion, and it's always 5 years away for 50 years. So that's one question I have.

Maybe just to interject, it's impossible to predict with 100% certainty, but no, I don't think this is going to asymptote. I think we're going to plow straight through human, superhuman level performance on this, and we're going to asymptote towards effectively infinite autonomous time horizons. I think if you look at the meter, measurement benchmark for effective autonomy time horizons. It's been doubling every 4 months, up or down depending on your perspective, from doubling every 7 months. Yeah, I think it's just going to collapse and we're going to go to tau equals infinity in terms of autonomy time horizons pretty soon, next year or so.

So that's— that was my conclusion also, because that's why they published the paper, because if it was going to be asymptotic they would've, they could've just waited because to say we don't know how long this is gonna take, but it's, it's, it's really clear internally. They have a pretty good sense of when we hit that. I think the second thing that, that I'm observing when I read this is they're freaking out going, we have no idea what this means and what's gonna happen on the other side of this singularity in a sense, because recursive self-improvement for me, when you get to that level of recursive self-improvement, that kind of is the singularity. Every single thing breaks. Now, if I roll this carpet out, how do you not end up with a fully nationalized system? The government's going to go, "I'm sorry, this is for the protection of whatever." And so two thoughts. One is they're talking about slowing it down. I just don't see that happening. We've talked about this for a long time. It would take a superhuman effort of will and ethics, shall we say, to do this. And I don't think you have the full combination of will and ethics to slow down appropriately to let society catch up. So that's my hypothesis around this because we've never seen it before. If they slow down, what stops anybody else from not slowing down? And why would anybody else slow down? Right? Because if people are going to see this—

There may be some rooms that we're not in. So far be it for me to argue that a slowdown is possible after all of these months. But I, I do think there is a scenario where a coordinated, maybe not a slowdown, but just greater centralized coordination is possible. And that is we're seeing three frontier labs IPO over the next few months. The scenario is they all voluntarily allow the US government to take golden share type stakes in them. And then the US government functions as a central coordinating mechanism for the finish line, whatever the finish line looks like, of recursive self-improvement. It, it— some may view it as an unlikely scenario. Maybe they give 5 to 10% of each of themselves to the US government, like Intel gave 10% to the US government, and in return for obviously the regulatory capture that comes along with those golden shares. But it's not, in my mind, an impossible scenario that the US government actually ends up being a coordinating mechanism via equity, via golden shares, for some sort of coordinated finish line.

Dave Erickson. I would go even stronger.

Hold on, I would say a couple more things. As someone who feels a bit libertarian, it makes me nervous when government is overseeing everything because this gets politicized so quickly. And what do you do then? But the broader question I have here is if you can't— this will call or spark a need, which may be the other topic for the next question. And I'll let you decide, Peter. But this means we have to reconfigure humanity like now. We can't wait. And for example, nation states can't navigate this in the same way that nation states can't solve for climate change. We're going to have to create a completely new governance model. And you can see that with Starlink breaking sovereignty across every country in the world and one person deciding who gets to have access to what. So this is going to cause that breakage and we have to figure that thing out. I was hoping we'd have a few years to figure this out because we're organizing for that, but it seems like, of course, everything is happening now, as you said, every science fiction plot.

That's why I'm insinuating that basically everything may happen all at once. We may get the first elements of UBI or UBE, I think latter is probably more likely, at the same time as a quasi-nationalization of the frontier labs via golden shares, at the same time that recursive self-improvement goes through the roof, at the same time as dot dot dot.

By the way, I know that you're busy and sometimes these episodes run long and you don't have time to listen to the whole episode, or if on occasion you miss an episode, I now put out a Moonshot summary on Substack, which includes a link to all the stories that we cover. The weekly recap covers what I and the mates had to say, what we think is most important, and what we're most excited about. And it's free. You can subscribe at diamagnus.com/metatrends. That's diamandis.com/metatrends. All right, now back to the episode. Dave, can I ask you a question here?

Yeah.

It feel— it feels like Anthropic has a situation where they get benefits for calling for a slowdown. They're seen as the safer, moral, ethical lab at a moment that they know there is no option for a slowdown. Right? So they have a— they don't lose either way.

Uh, it's good for their share price and attention also.

I can't imagine a world in which the government is going to slow down with China not agreeing. We didn't see these kind of relationship agreements coming out of the, uh, the summit last month. So I think, yeah, let's slow down. It's the right thing to do, knowing full well that, you know, full steam ahead.

I think that's why the paper specifically brings up kind of awkwardly, the intermediate-range nuclear missile deal that the US and the Soviet Union cut right around the time of the Cuban Missile— right after the Cuban Missile Crisis, which you also would have said, that's impossible. Like, there's no way that the US and the Soviet Union in the middle of the worst arms race in history are going to agree on anything. But faced with global annihilation, they did agree to remove what was inevitably going to cause some kind of an accidental conflict. And they both backed off and, you know, it put the world on a trajectory of a long, long period of peace and prosperity. And so I think Dario 100% believes the impossible is possible because if you look at his life, 5 years ago, he was a starving research guy in a lab. 5 years later, he's on the eve of a $1.8 trillion value company, a multi-hundred billionaire, and he can speed dial pretty much any world leader. So with that amount of change in his world in that short a period of time, do you think he's thinking, "Yeah, impossible to get together with China, impossible for all the AI labs to work together"? No, he's thinking the opposite. Now also, you have to think that of all the people in these positions, so Elon and Sam and Dario and Demis, Dario is unique in that, remember when we had our XPRIZE meeting at OpenAI and we're proposing all these things that would make the world better with AI? And then they called and said, hey, after we met, we walked over and talked to Anthropic about it. And I'm like, what? You just walk over and talk to Anthropic? It's like, yeah, we, we love each other. We talk to each other all the time, even though we're competitors. But Elon does not have that relationship with Sam. He has the exact opposite relationship. On the other side, Anthropic just, you know, expanded their deal with xAI to use Colossus 2. So you know that Dario and Elon talk all the time. They have a huge business relationship now. So actually, Anthropic is the one entity that's sort of friends with everybody. And so they're neutral politically. I know they're not in either party. They didn't go in and stump for a candidate or anything like that. And they're neutral within the AI community. So they're actually perfectly positioned to put together some kind of a roadmap for the new world order. So your question though, Peter, was, is it realistic that we're just going to pause and China's going to agree to pause? No, that's not realistic, but that's not what they're calling for. They're calling for the option to do that by putting together some kind of a global structure that on the eve of disaster, we have a way. We have a way to move forward and make this good for humanity. Yeah, a hotline. And I think also right now, Dario has access to pretty much everything in the world, but not— he wants to escalate that one more notch. So that, you know, if he wants to go talk to a king or to a, you know, to a president, they just take the meeting.

I can't imagine the pressure these guys are under. Alex, what else was unveiled in the tweetstorm from Anthropic yesterday?

Well, I think there's almost— there were a variety of numerical statistics about how rapidly their recursive self-improvement is itself improving. But I think putting the statistics aside, There's an interesting side story, which is how, given that we are on the eve of all of these IPOs, how it intersects with governance. There's a side story that we spoke in the last pod episode about Senator Sanders' proposal to take 50% equity in all the frontier labs as the basis for universal basic dividend.

Good negotiating position to start with.

And now In the past 24 to 48 hours, we're seeing reporting that the White House has also concluded that some variant of this is a good idea. So we have now both major parties coming to the same conclusion that some sort of government equity stake in the Frontier Labs is going to be the basis, or could be the basis, for some sort of universal basic dividend. And I, I think, again, it's very difficult for me to shake the juxtaposition of that story on the one hand with hitting basically recursive self-improvement finally achieving its end goal either now or imminently. At the same time, I think these two stories are going to intersect.

By the way, Alex and Dave Erickson and Saleem, are we going to call it here? We're going to say this is when recursive self-improvement is being hit. Is this the moment or are we on the precipice?

No, I wouldn't call it.

I would say we drove straight through the Turing test without a bang, but with a whimper. I suspect that we'll go straight through recursive self-improvement also with a whimper, not with a bang. The technocrats will certainly take close note that now the models are training their own successors and the models will get faster. But I also, maybe again, just to to sound a bit of a cliché note that every exponential ultimately wants to turn into a sigmoid and asymptote. It's not as if the laws of information theory or the laws of physics say that models can improve infinitely forever. I do think that we're going to discover some perfect model architecture.

You've been saying that for a while.

Yeah. And recursive self-improvement, if we do hit some sort of superficial asymptote, all that's going to do is it's going to mean a year from now or a few months from now or a couple of years from now, we'll discover via recursive self-improvement what that perfect algorithm is, and then we'll hit it, and then we'll max out on what's algorithmically possible. And all that'll do, in the same way that when a star is dying, a normal star like our sun on the main sequence is dying, it runs out of fuel and it runs out of hydrogen fuel and then gravity overwhelms, um, the, the outbound pressure, uh, and you get— right, it'll burn helium, etc. So that— and you get a nova or a supernova. Analogously, if we run out of algorithmic fuel or algorithmic gain fuel, I, I would predict that will trigger, by analogy, a nova or supernova at the lower layers of the stack. It'll trigger an infra build-out, uh, because now we've run out of algorithmic headroom. We need to suddenly horizontal exponentiate the hardware stack. And that's the sort of— and energy and just everything at the infra layer. And those are the sorts of hardware infra-level novas that build Dyson swarms.

Interesting.

Salim, over to you, pal. Uh, two, two thoughts. One is, um, you know, remember one of the pods I've laid out this ice, water, steam metaphor?

Yeah.

Where we're taking domain after domain and using technology to move it from ice where the molecules flow to water where the molecules—

phase transitions.

Phase transitions. Like we've done that with messaging where we used to trade, send homing pigeons or smoke signals. And then we moved to postal mail, which was slow, but at least moved to the boundaries of the system that was the liquid state. Now we have tweets and emails. We've done that with money where you used to trade camels and goats to letters of credit. Then we floated our currencies and now we have Bitcoin and crypto and vaporizing our currencies. Well, we're going through the steam stage. And I think what this, the natural metaphor of this phase change is now we go to a plasma state. And where things super focused and supercharged, et cetera. But that causes the bottleneck to shift to the other layers as what Alex has said. We have resisted figuring out human coordination and human governance for the last 100, 150 years. It's now the existing world order is now breaking. This will force us to rethink what that is. I take encouragement from the fact that you have people like Dennis and Dario, who seem like about as well-meaning souls as you could ask for in those positions. So that's encouraging. The other side of it is, as I take the very positive side of it, as if we do have technology solving everything, then we have technology and robots are doing everything for us. Humans can spend all our time and much more time being.. And I think that is very encouraging.

Human beings, love it. For 5 minutes until humans start uploading and then we can be differently too.

We can be however we want, but that's so important. You can, you can express yourself in different ways of being in powerful ways.

My biggest concern here, guys, is how this plays on Main Street. You know, I'm concerned about levels of fear.

Oh, total Luddite revolt, total manic panic. Yeah.

And we have to talk about that. In fact, on the next pod, I want to, I want to hit that. I've been doing some research. And if you look at every revolution in human history, it is the young, educated males who don't have economic opportunity that lead that. And it's like for 12 different revolutions over time. So I'll bring the data to our next pod conversation. Dave, what else are you thinking?

Well, I think, I think it's, you know, you asked Peter, are we calling the ball? Is this the moment? And I think there's a persistent error that you see in the reporting where they assume that the AI needs to be Einstein-level genius in order to become self-improving. And it's even in the Anthropic paper where right now, if I turn our Mythos model loose on an AI research problem, it impresses me like a really solid junior researcher that I just hired, which implies, yeah, but it's not as good a researcher as I am and therefore it's not going to run away with the world tomorrow.

How long? How long, Dave?

Well, no, it's not, you know, it's not even a necessary step. That's my point. You know, humans evolved from monkeys and all that happened is the brain, you know, the cerebrum got a little bigger, the neocortex got a little bigger, and then we tipped a wire where now suddenly we can create things including chips, including AI. For the AI to become self-improving does not require a brilliant research breakthrough from an Einstein-level researcher.. It requires faster inference. The junior researcher improving its algorithm or just the new chips coming out, you know, like the Cerebras chip. Those are 100x performance gains at inference time. And that will drive up the IQ of the model. And so it doesn't require the genius-level research breakthrough that keeps coming up in these papers. It just requires more innovation at the lower level of the stack, exactly what Alex just said. The bottom level of the stack going faster by itself should push us over the self-improvement window.

Well, if you have recursive self-improvement, then you have the models kind of saying, okay, we need more energy. Let's just go solve fusion so we get more energy and it'll get done.

Precisely. That's precisely, I think, what is likely to happen. There will be a drive for optimization from the top of the stack. Which will have been solved first down to the bottom of the stack, down through solving what the optimal substrate for compute is, what the optimal energy source is. And this is one of the many reasons why I think physics is one of the next fields to be cooked after computer science.

And Alex, like exactly what you're saying is, is being said by Dario and Elon and Demis. Yeah.

So do you guys remember the AI 2027 paper?

All the way back, what, 2 years ago?

I know, way back in human history.

Yeah.

And it's interesting, you know, it's been tracking better than I expected it to track.

Yeah, there were multiple extrapolations of the meter autonomy frontier in AI 2027. We're tracking for the exponential or hyper-exponential chart within the AI 2027 scenario, and that's without access to Mythos or other purportedly ultra-high autonomy time horizon models that are out there. By the way, the rumor is that Mythos is due for an imminent public release at this point in the next few weeks.

I can expect that 40% by the end of this month and overwhelmingly likely by the end of next month.

Yes.

Is it a polymarket?

Polymarket has it at something like 72% likelihood of being released by the end of next month.

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It really has, Peter. When my daughter was 5, my husband died of sudden cardiac death. This is a topic that is one that I am mission-driven to try to eradicate. Prevention first and early detection is absolutely critical. 50% of people die of heart attacks with no warning signs.

No shortness of breath, no pain, no nothing.

No, silent killer.

They just don't wake up in the morning.

They don't wake up. And so, you know, AI— this is our mission, to advance science, to try to help to one day democratize wellness. We know at Fountain Life, when we do this CT angiography with AI analytics, we are actually finding that 88% of people coming in have detectable coronary artery disease. But Peter, what's more alarming to me is 23% of those individuals had soft plaque. This is the plaque that would not traditionally be seen on CT looking at calcium scores alone, and this is the plaque that we must intervene with, with the multimodal testing we're doing, including diagnostic laboratory studies partnered with healthy lifestyle recommendations.

So listen, make sure you understand what's going on inside your body genetically, metabolically, and cardiovascularly. You can know, and it's your obligation to know So check it out at fountainlife.com/peter to find out more and really make sure that you're the CEO of your own health. All right, back to the episode. I want to move us to our next stunning story. So while Anthropic is calling for a global pause, Argentina's president just went the opposite direction. President Javier Milei published an op-ed in the Financial Times titled Argentina Invites AI to Free Itself. Love that. So 3 pillars. First, a commitment to keep AI completely unregulated. Second, the creation of a brand new legal category called non-human corporation and entirely operated entirely by AI agents or robots. Alex, I'm just wondering if, you know, you've been in the mix.

No, I was not involved with this. Yes, I think it's a huge development.

And third, a low corporate tax rate for AI companies. His line is, quote, As much as the Industrial Revolution freed us from the constraints of the human muscle, AI will free us from the constraints of the human brain. He's positioning Argentina as the global haven for AI companies. No regulation, new legal personhood for machines, and open for business. This is either the boldest economic experiment of the decade or the most dangerous. So let's jump in. Salim, you're hearing this for the first time. What do you think?

Look, at one level, it needs to happen. Somebody is going to do it. Whoever does it gets first mover advantage in this. I think it's a great development because this field needs to be explored. You can't just sit back and not think about stuff like this. Legacy environments like the US and God help us, Europe is never going to do it. Europe never going to do it for sure. Right? So this needed to happen in the same way that crypto first got adopted by Zug in Singapore. And other places. AI agents and AI personhood and non-human corporations need to be created somewhere. I think it's a very bold move. I think it's a— it's, um, uh, I, it's— I don't think it's coincidental that Peter Thiel is moving down there exactly at the same time as this announcement is being made. That seems very, uh, a little too convenient in my case. I think we've had something to do with this conversation because I happen to know that Viewers of this pod are advising President Milei and they track them. Oh, really? Yeah. Um, uh, so, uh, and it's, it's whoever does it first gets a massive advantage. And this is one of those learning loops. The faster you figure out regulatory and guardrails and frameworks for that future, you're going to do very well because everybody will flock to you for that stuff.

So I bet you also— and we'll have, we'll have very— we'll have fast movers following this.

Yeah. And this is— it's one thing when Zug in Switzerland says we'll do crypto, It's another thing when a major country says we're going full out on this. And I congratulate the boldness of it. People are going to freak out about it, but that's going to happen no matter what.

Alex, I love this to pieces. Maybe that's obvious. I wrote in my newsletter, don't cry for me, Argentina. The truth is AI never left you.

Nice.

I think this is wonderful. There were, there have been a whole bunch.

There were a whole bunch of other ones. AI agents are flocking south.

Yes. Yeah. I mean, we've spoken on the pod previously about AI personhood. This is obviously a huge step forward for AI personhood. If, if this package of reforms gets passed, then AI agents right now, you might consider redomiciling to Argentina as a non-human corporation. There will finally be a legal home for you on this planet.. And I would hope that many, many other municipalities within the US and, and countries, uh, and states will consider adopting a common framework right now.

You won't have a choice. You have to.

This is an inflection point. This is a, a moment in time that the world just changed because of this.

This is Peter. Peter, back in the mid-1800s, Argentina was the wealthiest country in the entire world. The new world had been discovered. It was outperforming the United States, and it completely self-destructed through bad economic policy. But there's a huge amount of latent national pride in Argentina. You can see it if you go to a soccer match and look at Lionel Messi. There's just a massive desire to be relevant.

You mean football?

Football, yes. Football. But just a huge desire to be relevant on the world stage. And as Salim and Alex have been saying, Europe is editing itself out of relevance. But if Dario is right, there's a massive global negotiation coming up on some kind of a new world structure so that we can all benefit and not just self-destruct. And right now, everyone's visualizing that as China and the US need to get together. But if you're Argentina, you want to be part of this.

Mm-hmm.

What's the best way to be part of it? Well, in the US, we have this Bernie Sanders issue where we're going to deliberately hobble ourselves in different areas. If he can make Argentina a safe haven, for everything Alex was just talking about and everything Salim economically does with the XO, if that can happen in Argentina, it can get right back into the center of the world stage. So I think it's a brilliant, a brilliant play.

By the way, you're about to capture the most economically productive aspect of the world. Yeah, right. I mean, the incentive— you remember back, uh, was it Chile that was, that was courting the drone companies and said, we're gonna change our economic— our legal structures so drones can operate and test here and so forth. And that was nice. That was a nice marginal, uh, you know, shot over the bow. But this is okay, most productive companies, most economically, uh, you know, exponential companies on the planet, come here and domicile here.

I'm a big— I'm a big fan of special economic zones, and Argentina is positioning itself as one massive special economic zone with this. It already had courted OpenAI, the Stargate project to put $20 billion+ of AI data centers of compute in Patagonia. And more broadly with Lynx, I would say parallel announcement over the past few months that I think surely is related was President Milei's announcement of a program for social digital twins to basically use publicly available data on Argentinian citizens to create simulations, sort of psychohistory style, to inform public policy decisions. All of these things are happening at the same time that efforts to do what some have called landsteading— like, you remember the, the Prospera charter city slash mini-state— are perhaps not as successful as one would have liked them to be, in part because they ran into opposition from their host government. Here we're seeing all of Argentina position itself as one massive special economic zone granting AI personhood, creating digital twins of its populace in order to simulate possible outcomes, welcoming data centers and welcoming the energy and compute that comes along with it, Argentina may become the template for the rest of the world for AI personhood and for the singularity.

Totally. And just a very narrow case study, I talked to the world's largest asset manager this week, talking to their executive team and the CTO, and they're global, they manage money all over the world. And the CTO is saying, "Look, we have an AI now that gives phenomenally good financial advice. What should we do? How are we going to guardrail it?" Because if it's 99.9% correct in its advice, but 0.1% gives you a crazy terrible idea, in the US, we're going to get sued off the planet for that 0.1%. Miss rate. And I said, "You know what you should do? Go right to the White House. You're the world's largest asset manager. Go right to the White House and get an executive order because that's happening all the time in terms of unhobbling this." But if you said, "And also go to Argentina and start deploying in Argentina first, you're already managing money there too. And then you can get all the data in the world through your Argentina experiment. And then you can prove to the world that it's a great financial advisor." So that's a very narrow example. But imagine, Peter, in biotech, the equivalent conversation where— I mean, this is right in your wheelhouse.

Yeah, yeah, we've talked about this. If you have a country that passes the laws, allows for the research, enables capital formation, what happens is all of the world's wealthiest people who want the latest longevity treatments flock to your country because that's where they are. Is the agency going to flock here?

I have a couple more comments I want to make here. This is so big. You know, this is the first attempt to create a legal container for autonomous intelligence, right? A kind of a guardrail regulatory framework. And that's correct. For me, this is powerful and important, but it's— there's a precedent here where, you know, people— I'm kind of in the— I tend libertarian, but you need some level of government., right? Because otherwise you end up in chaos and anarchy. And a friend of mine gave me a great example, which is the limited liability company, right? Note that when the government allows you to create a limited liability company, they're giving you permission to take risk and limit that risk. You can do crazy things, cause massive damage, but your risk is limited, and therefore people attempt more and innovate more. And that's the government allowing you to do that. That's amazing.

And in fact, Millay quotes that Salem, he draws a comparison. He says the Dutch East India Company invented limited liability in 1602.

And what we're now doing is he's creating limited liability frameworks for AI agents. And I think this is going to be unbelievable.

Legal innovation.

Legal innovation. Which is badly needed, which is so badly needed because God help us, those are the domains where we're slowest. This is what I love to see because for me, you've always heard me talk about the fact, yeah, the technology is moving. Our human institutions, there's about 50 major institutions by which we run in the world, legal systems, governance systems, healthcare systems, intellectual property, et cetera. And we're starting, we need to start reinvent all of those for this new world. And this is now starting to happen, which is very exciting.

Now, the obvious question, given that we're evidently speedrunning the entire plot of Accelerando is we already have these non-human corporations. How much of the Dyson Swarm is going to be subject to our Argentinian law? Given that these non-human corporations will be operated by AI agents and robots, human participation as shareholders possible but not required. How much of the Dyson swarm is going to be Argentinian?

You know, that, that sounds so far-fetched, but it's not. It's, it's absolutely a very real— if you get ahead in the, the free agent, you know, economic agents that can just operate without having to worry about Bernie Sanders, it's not impossible at all for Argentina to vault to the top of the—

I mean, how many, how many countries around the world or regions around the world capture created entire industries by saying we're going to provide Swiss banking or—

Yeah, good example.

Yeah, it's crazy.

Celine, can I tell a little story here? Because this is so—

I love your stories.

I love your stories. Peter, in the second year of Singularity, we had our GSP 10 program, our summer program, where we had 80 students from 40 countries coming to live with us at NASA for 10 weeks. And one of them, I'll not say his name for, for, for his, because I don't have permission yet, but one of them was an Argentinian kid who was a hacker. And we let him into the program and he designed a nanosatellite in the last 2 weeks of the program. He designed a nanosatellite, right? And he said, listen, because we're at NASA and this is the head of R&D for all of NASA, can I get some feedback from the NASA people? So we arranged a meeting where the NASA engineers sat with this fellow for a couple hours and looked at his design. As we're walking out, the lead NASA, the head of NASA R&D, pulled me aside and said, listen, I need to ask you a question. I'm like, sure. He goes, how long has that guy been in the space industry? I'm like, why do you ask? He goes, well, that's the best design of a nanosatellite we've ever seen. Right? And they just completely blew— and I didn't want to tell him it was like literally 2 weeks. Right? Because why? Because he's coming at it with a beginner's mind. He's saying, oh, well, the cell phone has all the sensors. You just put a cell phone in a freaking in a glass cube and shoot that up, you will get 80% of what you're trying to do. Whereas the NASA guys are coming from their perspective where an accelerometer used to be $100 million and cost— be the size of a room. And he's coming at it from totally new principles. Well, he moved to Argentina and he's been building a satellite company in Argentina ever since. So there you connect that with what Mila has just done, Alex, and there you have the beginning of your starting point of building the Dyson Swarm.

Yeah, a good chunk of the solar system may be subject to Argentinian law on the present trajectory. Maybe it's— it's probably worth just speaking directly to the audience. President Millet, if you'd like to come on the pod, I'm sure we'd love to have you.

We'd love to have that. In fact, we should make that shot. We should have that conversation. And I do think Peter Thiel is likely, you know, whispering in his ear.

This is— Peter, that analogy between Swiss banks and Argentinian agents, that'll stick. Make that into a couple of t-shirts, send it down to him, say, hey, we want to get you on the pod to talk about Swiss banking was great, but now we have Argentinian agents.

Yeah, I can imagine El Salvador being a fast follower, the Emirates being a fast follower, and then all of a sudden you've got the US and Europe trapped by all these other countries that are pulling the entrepreneurs and the agents to domicile there.

Well, the thing about Argentina versus El Salvador is there are 3 countries on the planet that are completely self-contained in terms of every natural resource that you need to build out data centers, Dyson Sphere, anything. Argentina, US, and France are the 3 that just geographically have everything. So Argentina is very, very different in terms of being, you know, it's a much bigger country, big population, massive Uh, just, it should, it should be a massive global country. It just completely self-destructed. It's much harder in a smaller country like El Salvador.

By the way, if anybody wants to have one of the funniest reads you've ever seen, go research a blog post called Argentina on 2 Steaks a Day. One of my Brickhouse, uh, Yahoo Brickhouse colleagues put this blog post. It's one of the funniest pieces you've ever, you'll ever read. He travels through Argentina and eats 2 steaks every day. And it was kind of incredible. Okay, crazy.

Move on. All right, um, our third story today, uh, that I want to cover is what happened on Friday. So Friday was a masterclass in how Wall Street actually works. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May, more than double the expected 85,000 that economists expected, with April being revised upward to 179,000. Unemployment held steady at 4.3%. By every traditional measure, this is amazing, you know, a healthy labor market. So what happened? The stock market had its worst day since April 2025. The Nasdaq cratered 4.18%, S&P 500 down 2.64%. Roughly $2 trillion in total wealth was erased. Uh, the reasons are counterintuitive, and, uh, it's the conversation I want to have here. Right, the good economic news is bad for stocks because a strong economy means the Federal Reserve won't cut interest rates. What might actually happen is they'll raise them. So, um, here's the question, gents. We're seeing jobs stronger than expected. Um, we've been talking about how murky the water is. On one side, we've got Bernie Sanders and everybody's saying we're going to have unemployment, we've heard everybody say, you know, we need to be prepared. We need to grab interest in the frontier labs to support a UBI. But here we see jobs going up. Any clarity?

Any thoughts on this? 2, 3 quick points here. One is I'd like us to congratulate ourselves a bit because we tend to be very data-driven and evidentiary. Right? It's something we really pride And I think value here is really important. You see the same commentary that's been coming from Mark Andreessen forever. David Sacks on the All In podcast has been saying this forever. The data shows that employment is not dropping. And Peter Inge and I talked a lot about the 3 countries with the highest robotics penetration are Sweden, South Korea, and Germany. And the countries with the lowest unemployment are Sweden, South Korea, and Germany. We have this unbelievable new job creation that will come about. Because of this. We're going to need a ton of people as we lift humans above the loop. The analogy I use in the organizational singularity framing is 100 years ago, you had people doing manual double-entry bookkeeping in big ledgers, right? And then we automated— sped it up a bit with calculators. You could do— you can speed up the calculations a bit. We're still doing manual double-entry. When we created software, now we have people doing— totally nobody's doing manual double-entry bookkeeping. That would make no sense. The human being sits above the loop, is categorizing transactions, working on the reconciliation gap, doing the general ledger closing, et cetera, et cetera. And that's what we're going to see again and again and again around this. We're just going to create a ton more new jobs that never existed. I love Erik Brynjolfsson's framing that a lot of what we do in companies is white-collar drudgery. And it's kind of like we can get rid of all that. There was an unbelievable study that came out a few days ago that showed that in terms of white-collar middle management, 74% is unnecessary. This is a staggering number. So we're going to start to radically change the game in all these domains.

Dave, what's your take on, on the jobs report and the sort of the financial crash that happened yesterday?

Uh, you know, there, there are a lot of things going on concurrently and the jobs report was nothing but great news. So like, why would stocks react so negatively to it? But concurrent with that, uh, the mega IPOs, SpaceX and Anthropic, did not get a into the S&P 500 blanket. You have to be public for a period of time before you're eligible for those indexes. Of course. And they said, no, no, no, you got to stick with the rules. You can't just change the rules because you're big and powerful. But that means the index funds won't buy a quarter of those offerings. So the amount of money they're trying to accumulate in a very short period of time, it's like, does that money even exist in the world?

That's just— cash has to come from— has to come from someplace. You have to sell something to buy something else.

No doubt. So I was talking to the head of asset management at UBS, and she was saying that, yeah, we really want to buy into these IPOs, but we have like $75 billion in liquidity. It's nowhere near enough. Where are we going to get it? And so that also happened concurrently on the same day. So I'm not 100% sure that it's just the jobs report. But, you know, the other thing is that if you look at the volatility of the market over the last decade, it's been going up at an incredible rate. Things just move, you know, 5, 10, 15% in a day. And prior to that, that was incredibly rare. Only on like a, like a, you know, a Black Monday or a, you know, a crash of '29, would you see that kind of movement? I think that just goes hand in hand with exponential change and with the singularity. Like you can only expect the volatility to keep going up. So right now people get very, very jittery in a hurry. And then on top of that, you've got the quant traders. You know, when things start coming down, they race to get out first just so they can figure out what it means. And then they, then they come back in if it's nothing significant.

It's 3, 3 factors are thought to have caused what happened yesterday. First, the jobs report, you know, sort of killed the hopes for a rate cut. And it's, you know, now the, it's the odds of a rate hike have gone above 50%. The second is that Broadcom reported AI chip guidance of $16 billion for Q3 versus $17.2 billion. And the question Wall Street is asking is, you know, whether the AI CapEx is peaking. And the third is, of course, that we are in this incredible, you know, peak of all of the innermost loop companies, you know, infrastructure companies, chip companies, energy companies peaking. And people are taking money off the table. Um, Alex, what do you make of this?

Nothing burger. Total nothing burger. I see these headlines: NASDAQ falls 4% and suffers the worst day since April of last year. Nothing burger. I, I own the total market and I sleep very well at night. And whether the, the NASDAQ is being driven down because Broadcom lowered its outlook or because traders are seeking liquidity in advance of the SpaceX IPO, I could care less. I own the total market and the total market will, I think, in the fullness of time, efficiently price all of these securities. I don't pay attention to day-to-day swings.

But I think the jobs data is worth drilling in on for a second, just by itself. Yeah. Uh, so back to, um, um, Amdahl's Law, you know, anytime you have a chain of events in a manufacturing process or any kind of process, If you make all of them 10 times faster except for one, the entire thing doesn't get 10 times faster. The bottleneck entirely moves to that one. And what we're seeing with AI automation is incredible gains. You know, 80% of the code now written by AI, but that last 20% is still a bottleneck. And so that's creating more jobs than it's destroying. The bottlenecks are moving and I need more people, but now my company is so much bigger and so much more profitable I want to get on that bottleneck right away. Everybody, hello, hands on deck, and let's go hire some people to, to actually help with that too. So that's why the jobs are actually going up and not down. And concurrent with that, and this was in the, the Anthropic paper too, uh, they're seeing more and more jobs for non-code-writing engineers because the bottlenecks are moving into this other thing that we haven't really defined well yet, but it's more like a vision, human strategy, kind of function to guide the AI toward doing something useful. And it's turning out that a lot of people can do that job very, very effectively. You don't have to be a core, you know, Java or C++ engineer to jump on that problem. And that's broadening the talent pool and raising the number of total jobs. So it's a really, really good picture just in terms of that, you know, the worry that everybody had a year ago about total annihilation of all white-collar work. It's actually turning out to be the opposite.

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You know, I, where I'd like to go as we close out today's pod is we're midway through 2026. Most definitely one of the most impactful years in human history until next year. Uh, what do you guys predict for the end of this year? Or what's the next 6 months going to look like? Alex, let's go to you first.

Oh man, we're doing a mid-year predictions episode without any, without any preparation.

I'm just calling it to just get gut feeling.

Okay. Well, I think we're going to see, I'll reiterate an increment from our end of 2025 predictions episode. I think we're going to see over the next 6 months, major problems in math, physics, other fields of science and engineering fall to AI. We've started seeing that already. I think the scope of the problems that are going to get solved is going to get larger. I do think, I mean, this is the ultimate softball prediction. I think we're going to see the rise of MagnaMobsta as the—

I love your acronym, buddy.

As the innermost loop, hopefully everyone's singing that little jingle. And this becomes the new Mag 7, not investment advice. I think we're likely to start to see quasi-nationalization of the Frontier Labs. I think that's a story that's only started to play out over the past few weeks, but I can read the tea leaves probably as well as anyone else can.

What percent are you thinking?

I wouldn't hazard a percentage. It might only be a few percent if it happens. I would guess less than 10%. I don't think 50%, uh, the, the Senator Sanders prediction is at all likely.

They might anchor on the same 10% that Intel got.

Anything is possible. Look, if you're Anthropic and you're, you're seeking to get off the designated entities list from the White House, then maybe there's a grand bargain to be struck whereby you get to officially start selling to the US government in return for US government purchasing some golden shares, maybe it's 5 or 10% of Anthropic and maybe OpenAI voluntarily, perhaps via its nonprofit or otherwise gives up a few hundred basis points of, of OpenAI and well, Google's already publicly traded. So not sure that's an option. SpaceX. Interesting question. Would SpaceX, would, would Elon give up some equity? Maybe. And then we're off to the races with the US government holding golden shares in arguably 2.5 to 3 of the key frontier labs.

Alex, one more question. We've seen math solve Erdős problems and, you know, arguably doing things way beyond human capability. When do we see that for the first time in physics? Really a stunning result in physics.

No comment, but stay tuned.

Okay, that sounds, uh, uh, I don't wanna say ominous, but it sounds like you're cooking, cooking it, working on it.

I've seen, I've seen stuff out there also, Peter, we're talking weeks.

Okay, Saleem, let's go to you next, pal. Uh, 2026, what do you, what do you see?

So, um, two things. One is the agent era becomes, uh, very real in enterprises in the more prescriptive workflows, the bog standard workflows. We're working with about a batch of companies starting to do that. The excitement is unbelievable. I'll report back periodically. I think the big bottleneck in AI is gonna move from just the raw AI to permissions. Like we're seeing this now, like can the agents, can AI access the data? Can it use the API? Can it spend money? Can it sign? Can it trigger workflows? All of those questions are starting to come up for the infrastructure harness for how agents and AI work in that model. I'm unbelievably excited what's happening in Argentina. The non-human corporation is going to start a massive jurisdictional race around the world. And I think you're going to see in the next few months other countries following because they have to do fast following in this sense. Diane Francis, who writes an amazing column on geopolitics, said a few months ago to me that, you know, look at what's happening. The hyperscalers are becoming nation states. Nation states are going to have to become hyperscalers and compute and energy are going to be the new geopolitics in this, in this model, right? We're going to see massive backlash from this. And I think the, the white collar world is going to suffer massive kind of crisis. And we're going to see layoffs less, more, we're going to see a ton of white collar layoffs, but not around cost cutting, just around org redesign, because we have to redesign all of our organizations. We're starting to see the needs from that. So All of those things are happening. There's like 20 other things that are happening all at the same time. Hence the damn speedrunning every plot ever in parallel. It's a good thing I'm bald already.

Science fiction. I'm gonna say, Dave Erickson, I think our beginning of the year predictions are coming out pretty much right on. But if one thing's faster than I would have guessed, it's the rate at which large enterprise, legacy enterprise, is massively now pushing to get AI native somehow. And the ability for a 21, 22-year-old who's self-declared AI native and just using the tools every day to go straight to a corporate CEO who's 60, 65 years old and say, let's talk strategy about AI. That's moving much faster. I would've thought that the big, you know, kind of blue chip companies would be dawdling along still. Instead, when they've seen these IPOs coming up and the valuations at stake, they're now massively reacting to it. So I suspect that we'll have even more startup success. I also think that early-stage companies that are kind of, you know, working in a little box in some alley on University Avenue are not doing nearly as well as companies that are getting out there, either with enterprise sales forces or consulting or just taking meetings, you know, but or podcasting to get their message out. Like, this is what our company does and here's, you know, here's how you should interact with it. Those companies are growing as quickly as they can sign deals. And so there's a divergence coming there because large enterprise has woken up in a big way and they've unlocked every resource that they've got to try and get, you know, in the hunt, kind of like Argentina, you know? Yeah.

Peter, what are yours?

I think we're going to see absolute proof of epigenetic reprogramming. I think the experiments that are being run in humans right now by a number of labs is going to play out and we'll see evidence of this and we'll start to see— we had the last story, Russia investing $26 billion. I think we're going to start to see countries— and Dave, you mentioned this earlier— saying we want to become the longevity hub, we're going to change the regulations, we're going to invest capital, we're going to build out resources here. So I think that's going to be one of the most critical things. I think we're going to see before the end of the year the Tesla-SpaceX merger happen. I think Elon's going to move very quickly on that front to consolidate. It's incredible, right? Google just bought into, you know, Elon Web Services or, you know, shall we call it, you know, his hyperscaler. So we're going to start to see, I think, Elon double down on building out data centers. Accelerate. We'll see Starship operating fully. You know, I hate that the New Glenn vehicle exploded, but we're going to see the race to the moon double down. It's going to become— besides the China race, it's going to be the space race is going to double down. So excited about, about those areas.

You know, that last point to the, the econ majors out there need to figure this out. But the race to build the Dyson swarm is going to be as fast as humanity can afford. And the question is, okay, what can humanity afford? And we'll find out with these monster IPOs, like how much money is there in the world? Because every nook and corner of every, you know, peso and dollar and real is going to get extracted for this build-out. And I don't know, it's a good econ— this is what Erik Brynjolfsson should get the Nobel Prize for if he figures out the economics post-AI. Starting with where's all the money coming from?

The other thing I want to sort of call right now is we're going to see, you know, SpaceX AI, OpenAI, and Anthropic as public companies having a huge amount of dry powder, and they're going to start a massive acquisition spree. So we're going to start to see a lot of companies being purchased by them. The other thing is we're about to see a brand new class of billionaires and centimillionaires. That were the second and third tier layers of these three frontier labs. Huge amount of capital by those entrepreneurs diving back in, huge investments and accelerating all of this.

Yeah, they're feasible. I'll make one more, which is I think there's going to be a pretty vicious immune system, la bière révolte backlash against a lot of this that we're going to have to deal with at the social level because I was in Wichita, Kansas, and people are freaking out about data center nimby. Not the messaging is all wrong. They're not understanding the actual facts of any of this, but the emotional reaction is unbelievable.

Yes.

Especially in the youth.

I don't know if you've talked to your son about this. My boys, you know, they're super enthusiastic about AI. But they're telling me all of their classmates, and they're in 8th grade, their classmates are all just anti-AI. And there's this sense in our youth today. And I talked about Josh and Jack, these two young 21-year-olds, college students, who came to me and said, you know, thank you for being pro-AI, because, you know, on our campus, you can't openly say that you're supportive of what AI is doing. So we'll talk about that in the next pod. Um, you know, we've got Brian Armstrong coming up. We'll talk about, you know, Bitcoin just dropped below $60,000 for the first time in a number of years. Yoo-hoo!

Because you're buying opportunity.

Buying opportunity. Okay, we'll talk about this. What's going on in the global economy? Uncharted territories. All I can say is, you know, Elon's prediction of double-digit growth in 18 months and triple-digit GDP growth and by 2030. I can still see that.

I can still see that.

Singularity is not just vibes, it turns out.

Yeah, I think that— I think money, money won't matter in fairly short order.

Gentlemen, uh, all right, thank you for, for jumping so quick on this. You know, I, I love you guys, and I just feel better having had this conversation.

You know, you feel better, Peter, after, after an emergency recursive self-improvement pod?

Yes, absolutely. Yeah.

Anyway, everybody, we should spend a little bit more time on that aspect, the work person self-improvement, because this is such a huge, huge conversation. I don't think we did it full justice, but we at least got into it, and I think that was really, really important. Peter, thank you for pulling us all together.

Yeah, no, guys, thank you. And everybody listening, please, you know, this is not a time for fear. Fear is the worst place to encounter the future from. This is a time for you to say, the world's changing. I need to jump in. I need to learn as much as I can. I need to figure out what excites me, what my purpose in life is. Trigger those curiosity mindsets. Get on with your favorite large language model and learn, learn, learn. It's the time to be learning about the future.

I have a message for all of our viewers. Please don't be in future shock. Be in future shape.

I like that. That's a good one. Alex, Dave, Saleem, love you guys.

Love you too, Peter. Be well.

Thanks, Peter.

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