The Robots Are Coming for Your Job

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This week on the Andrew Yang Podcast.

I mean, you know, you can think of it this way. Imagine you're at the Coca-Cola Company, right? And you start spending all this money on AI from Anthropic or OpenAI. There are really only two ways to recoup that investment, right? One is to cut costs.. And it could be other costs, not just labor, if you can use the AI to do things more efficiently. But if you're going to— if you're going to find, as you say, $1 trillion across the economy to get this money back, labor is going to be the primary target.

It is my pleasure to welcome back to the podcast futurist and New York Times bestselling author of the seminal book that's actually being rereleased with some new material right now, Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future. You can see why I like him.

Martin Ford, welcome back, Martin.

Thanks for having me, Andrew.

So Martin, holy crap, man, you are the OG of calling AI and automation, really automation generally, because your book says, look, it's not just AI, it's information technologies. It's been going on for a long, long time. So we're going to get the update from you because like longtime listeners might remember Rise of the Robots in 2015, your TED Talk. And now I don't know about you, but people come to me every day saying, man, you called it, AI, blah, blah, blah. You must be getting a lot of the same stuff.

Yeah, I mean, we definitely are at a point where, you know, we seem to be much closer to this actually happening. You know, I actually wrote my first book my self-published book, The Lights in the Tunnel, in 2009. So that's 17 years ago. And I thought then that this might be 50 years in the future, right? When I wrote Rise of the Robots in 2015, I was thinking maybe it's going to be 20 years. But now here we are, it's 11 years on, and there certainly are indications that this is beginning to unfold. And we don't know that for sure. We know we have to examine the data and see if it's really happening at this moment. But what I've always been saying is that it is inevitable. Maybe it won't happen now. Maybe the AI bubble will collapse and it's not going to happen now, but it will happen eventually. I mean, I think it's inevitable that progress in AI and in robotics is not going to just stop, right? It's going to continue relentlessly. And eventually we're going to get to the point where really the bulk of human labor is, is going to be displaced, and we're going to have to figure out how we can restructure our economy and our society in order to deal with that.

You and I are on the same page completely. So let's talk about what's going on right now, which you write about in the new material in Rise of the Robots. And I'm sure you've done some thinking even after writing the new stuff in 2025 because this stuff is happening in real time. So I talk to smart people. You talk to smart people. I'm convinced it is definitely happening now. You know, I talked to CEOs. A CEO reached out to me out of the blue, publicly traded company, uses AI in another industry. And he said to me, look, my revenue has gone up 300% and I've cut 30% of my workers. And my incentives are just to do more of that. Uh, that he actually said, the more workers I cut, the better I'm going to do. So if this is true for me, he shared, and it's true for other CEOs, so what are we going to do as a society? And so he fast-forwarded to universal basic income, which in his case was like, let's put some markers in place, and as we kick more workers to the curb, let's like like, you know, increase the amount of money that flows to them. And this is a major company CEO who just reaches out to me out of the blue and says, "Hey, will you have breakfast with me so I can tell you about what I'm seeing?" And then he's like freaking out. And he's not alone. There are another, you know, host of CEOs who've told me something similar. Simultaneously, you have college kids who are running scared. Their prospects, have dimmed very, very markedly on campus, particularly if they're computer science majors. And those kids would have been fielding multiple offers just 2, 3 years ago, and now they're trying to find one job offer, and their, their placement rates have fallen off a cliff. Uh, so like, I, I believe this is happening in real time. Um, and so some of the economic data is more ambiguous, which I get. Um, the economic data tends to be a little bit, um, uh, of a lagging indicator. Um, so when people come to you and say, hey Martin, is this happening right now? Uh, what do you tell them?

Yeah, I, I mean, I'm not as, uh, confident as you are, I suppose. I, I, you know, I'm open to either possibility for sure. There are a lot of anecdotal-type examples of this. In fact, I cite some of your writing in the book, some of the people that you talk to. In the final chapter, I have it there. And there are tons of examples like that. However, as you say, the economic data is not yet clear. The economists are definitely interested in this. They're sifting through the data trying to figure this out. Some of the best work, I think, has been done by Erik Brynjolfsson at Stanford. And I cite him in the book. By looking at payroll data from the company ADP that, you know, there definitely was seemingly an impact on entry-level workers that were in fields that were, you know, closely anchored to AI, things like customer service, computer programming, and so forth. And so far, the only really definitive evidence is mostly in entry-level jobs. But you're right, that's a tremendous problem, even if it's only that. I mean, that's a huge problem. I've got a daughter that is just finishing up her first year of college, so she's not going to graduate for another 3 years. I don't know what the world is going to really look like then. But my intuition would be that it probably begins with entry-level workers who are doing more routine, predictable work. But over time, it's going to scale up to impact even more experienced workers. And the question is, how long will that take? You know, before we really see that impact. I think the economists are going to debate this. I mean, they debate everything, right? So by the time the economists tell us definitively that this is really unfolding, I think every, you know, all the rest of us who already know, right, it'll be obvious. But yes, I'm very concerned that this might well be the moment in time. But the point I would make this is, even if it doesn't turn out to be that it's going to happen right now. It definitely will happen, probably not, not too far in the future.

Yeah, so we have seen a real shift in the language that a bunch of CEOs are using. So even 2, 3 months ago, uh, Dario Amadei was saying 50% of entry-level white-collar jobs are going to be gone. The CTO of Microsoft said something similar. Uh, there are a lot of folks saying, look, um, I think Marc Benioff said like maybe we're not going to hire you know, junior people anymore. And then about 3 weeks ago, everyone started saying job fears are overblown. The CEO of Goldman Sachs wrote an op-ed in The New York Times saying, hey, there'll always be new stuff for the smart people to do. And like, we're not going to cut jobs. And that one interested me in part because someone at Goldman Sachs said to me over dinner, a number of months ago that, uh, he— there— he's on the team that's supposed to look at, um, figuring out how many workers they can automate, honestly. And he had like a very, very significant number. Um, you know, he was like 40, 50%. Um, and so hearing, um, someone inside say that and then seeing something very, very different from the CEO in the New York Times. So there's been this massive concerted effort, in my view, for a lot of the leaders to try and assuage the job concerns. And I think they're assuaging the job concerns in part because people have gotten so mad at them. The approval rating for AI is 26%. In one poll, very famously, a bunch of college seniors booed commencement speakers that used the syllables AI together. Like anytime it came up, that they would get booed.. And several of these companies are trying to go public. So, you know, they have this massive interest in at least making it to the public gate so they can, you know, be valued at $1 trillion or something along those lines. And so I've seen like a real shift in the language. I personally think that they just got together and were like, look, guys, people are starting to despise us and like really despise us, protest the data centers. Like we've got to stop scaring people. Now, for me, you know, my interest is not necessarily scaring people. My interest is just trying to tell people what I actually think is happening. And it's one thing I enjoy about you because you're, in my opinion, like a disinterested observer in the sense that, you know, you also just try and call things one, like you see them in real time,, but also in your case, trying to project, uh, into the future. And so what you just said was like, look, even if it's not now, it's gonna happen, whatever, like several years from now or whatever, like, like the timeframe is. Um, but do you get, uh, incoming in a particular way where people are like, hey, Martin, you're scaring people, stop it, or anything along those lines?

I mean, I haven't heard that, that too much. I mean, I, I have always been perceived as kind of negative since I've I've done a lot of speaking engagements, speaking to groups, and usually the response to that has been quite positive. But obviously, when I started doing that back in 2015, the level of concern was not so high, right? It was just something that was kind of interesting and futuristic. Now, the fear is absolutely really there. But I think people recognize that we need to talk about this. You can't just sweep this under the rug, and that's going to be the worst possible outcome if we just we're just in denial and then this unfolds and we don't have any plan, right? I mean, really, my intent in talking about this is to get other people, smart people, policy wonks, people like that, to really engage with this because I don't pretend to be smart enough to figure out all the answers here. It's going to take a lot of work. I mean, we can talk in general about a UBI and things like that, but actually implementing that is going to take tremendous work and it's a tremendous political challenge. I mean, so we really need people more engaged with this and, you know, that's sort of my hope by publishing this update to the book that I can get this out there and really get a lot more people engaged and taking this seriously so that if it does unfold, perhaps rapidly, we've got some plans that we can begin to execute.

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All right, here's the situation. You are at home. You are tired. You are hungry. There's something healthy you could cook for yourself, but you don't have it in you, so you eat Crap! You eat something you know you should not be putting in your body, but you're just too tired to deal with it. Does that sound like you?

That sounds like me, at least part of the time.

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Yeah, I'm totally with you. I mean, uh, if we wind up kicking thousands and thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands or millions of workers to the curb, um, there, there has to be some kind of a response, um, you would think, uh, and it is in many ways a political challenge that I've— everyone knows, like, I've set myself to trying to address I ran for president on universal basic income in 2020. You know, I've been working on democracy reform efforts. I think the two-party system right now is not designed to actually respond to the challenges of today because their incentives are not actually to solve problems. So I'm with you on all fronts. I'm also with you in calling for a universal basic income, which now I think is totally common sense. You know, when I walk the streets, The vast majority of people are like, we need it, we need it. Um, and I was just at a policy conference in Michigan and I was the scary one, Martin, um, where they brought me in and say, hey, let's talk about AI. And then I, I scared people. And, and my logic is this, and this logic I think is very hard to argue with. Uh, the hyperscalers, the mega tech companies are slated to spend $725 billion on AI infrastructure, data centers, and the like. In 2026, and they spent hundreds of billions last year. I'm sure they have some scheduled for next year. So you're talking about $1 trillion ballpark. You spend $1 trillion. And so one of the comps I make, make is like, look, a really modern NFL stadium might cost you $2 billion. So you're looking at setting up 10 NFL stadiums per state. In like a 2 to 3 year period. I mean, that's like the scale of the investment we're talking about. And so how do you get that money back if you are throwing down that way? And when people think about it, it's like, okay, um, sure, as consumers we might pay the AI company something. Sure, as companies we might pay the AI company something. But a lot of that money has to come out of cost savings from cutting workers. Like, there's no other way to make the math work. And we can talk about whether this math makes sense at all in terms of like maybe the valuations are just out of whack or the capital expense is excessive relative to, you know, the commercial opportunity in a given time frame. But logically, if you're going to spend hundreds of billions of dollars you're going to have to kick a lot of workers to the curb to make the math work, is what I said to the folks in Michigan. And they not— they thought about it, they were like, yeah, like, how else do you make those numbers work, right?

No, I think that's exactly right. And that's what I said in the book, is I think that, that, you know, the big plump target for, for getting a return on this investment has got to be cutting labor costs, right? Um, I mean, you know, you can think of it this way. Imagine you're at a Coca-Cola company, right? And you start spending all this money on AI from Anthropic or OpenAI. There are really only two ways to recoup that investment, right? One is to cut costs, and it could be other costs, not just labor, if you can use the AI to do things more efficiently. But certainly labor is the biggest target there, right? I mean, that's— if you're going to find, as you say, a trillion dollars across the economy to get this money back, labor is going to be the primary target. The other way you could have a return on the investment, of course, is to use all this AI so you can sell more Coca-Cola, right? You could boost your revenues. I mean, it's got to be some combination of those two things. But I really think that labor costs are the low-hanging fruit here. That's where companies are going to have to ultimately go if they're going to get a return on this investment. And, you know, just in the last few days, there are all these reports of companies that have been spending huge amounts on tokens, basically, you know, AI services from Anthropic or OpenAI, and they're not seeing that return, right? There was just a report from Axios, I think, that said some company out there actually spent half a billion dollars on services from Anthropic and, you know, really didn't get anything back. So I think we're getting to the point where they're going to have to start evaluating, you know, how can we get a return on this investment? And that's increasingly going to put pressure on them to look at labor-saving approaches.

I think that company might have been Amazon. I saw the Axios report and then someone outed it as, you know, that like Amazon might have spent the $500 million. And then now there are multiple reports of companies saying, hey, we spent too much on what they call token maxing, I suppose, which is just like You're going to be judged by how much AI you use. So everyone just went hog wild and used AI up the wazoo. And it turns out there was a cost associated with that, $500 million in the case of at least one company. And then now the clamps have been put on and they're saying you can't just max it out as a sign of how hard you're working. And we have to try and make the numbers work. And this is coming in a backdrop when Anthropic just raised money at $900 billion plus valuation, again, trying to go IPO. So this is a fascinating time, Martin, where I will say I think that these valuations are excessive. It does remind me of the internet bubble in the, let's call it, 2000 timeframe where you had Pets.com, you know, you had all of these companies, anything with.com in its name went public at a high valuation. And then the bubble burst and you still did have the internet change everything and Amazon become a trillion-dollar company. Um, and so the hype was real. Um, but the valuations were out of whack. There were a lot of companies that failed, um, that weren't Amazon. And so I, I believe we're in a similar, uh, place, uh, with AI and these companies and the valuations. I'll tell a story to you that I'm not sure I've shared. So I raised money for Noble Mobile to help lower people's wireless costs and also pay us if we don't use as much screen time. Very wholesome stuff. It's like consumer tech. And multiple investors said to me, hey, Andrew, we really want to work with you. We really like you. If you start anything with AI in it, we'll cut you a check right now. But this other idea you have, while it seems great, like, you know, it doesn't fit our thesis or you know, we don't think we're going to see this crazy return. Um, but if it's AI, then sure. And so what you're seeing is there are going to be a lot of investors who are just trying to pump money into AI companies, um, because the valuations are all heading up and to the right. And then a lot of those companies are not going to work out. A lot of those companies are, are, are going to fail. Um, I think you are going to see at least $1 trillion enterprise emerge. You're not necessarily going to see, you know, lots of them or as many as people hope.

Yeah, I'm definitely, you know, also quite worried about the bubble. I think that, as you say, the valuations are extraordinarily high. These companies have not yet figured out how to justify those valuations, right? By getting— ultimately, the customers of OpenAI and Anthropic have got to generate a return on what they're paying those companies in order for all of this to be sustainable. If, if many companies start finding that, that they're not getting that return, then we're absolutely going to be at high risk of having those valuations take a steep fall. I, I have a sense that that's why these companies are rushing to do IPOs. They want to do it, you know, soon because the risks are clear, not just from, from the AI bubble itself. We've also now got this situation in Iran, right, which I think I mean, as, as we speak right now, Trump is saying he's got a deal he's almost going to sign, and I, I'm not sure I believe him. I think it's, it's a nearly intractable situation there. So there's a real risk that, that, uh, an energy shock could, could throw us into a global recession. That's another risk. So we could see a lot of unemployment, uh, not necessarily from job automation, you know, the, the, um, from these other factors. And, and, you know, one other thing I'll say, as I say in the book, it's been shown pretty clearly that it's actually during economic downturns, when you're in a recession and you lay people off anyway, those are the times when companies really aggressively adopt labor-saving technology. So what can happen is that it's not that a bunch of people get laid off because of AI is automating their jobs, but people get laid off for another reason. Maybe the energy shock, maybe the AI bubble implodes.. But then after these people are out of work, in the background, the companies are aggressively moving to adopt this technology. So essentially, those people never get hired back. And that's kind of how it has played out again and again during recessions. And that's really what has sort of driven the erosion of the middle class in the United States. I mean, it's kind of happened. It doesn't happen gradually in a straight line. It tends to happen during economic downturns. So I mean, there are many, many risks out there. Um, and yeah, I'm quite worried about it.

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Yeah, there's a lot of recent data. I'm talking like a, like last 2 weeks, um, around credit card delinquencies. At like a 15-year high. 13% of credit cards are now late. Buying power went down last month. Like there are a bunch of warning signs in the economy right now, independent of the automation story. But it's totally true that as soon as there's a downturn, that's when you try and save money, starting with workers. And one of the things I'm honest about, because I think it's important to be honest about these things, Noble Mobile is using AI for tasks that a junior engineer would have done in, you know, another time. And our CTO said, look, I think AI is up to the task and, you know, with some guidance. So instead of hiring a junior engineer, we're using Claude. And that's a win, you know, as a business, that's just like a smart thing to do. I mean, we like, we had the job posting up too, and like junior engineers are hard to find, expensive. And so if you can replace it with AI, then you do it. The easiest people to fire are those you haven't hired yet. And so there are going to be a lot of businesses that are using technology for tasks that humans would have done. And those incentives shoot up in rough times because in a good time, and if you're a CEO, you're not necessarily trying to fire people. You know, like as a manager, you're not like, hey, we're doing great. I mean, by the way, you are seeing a lot of tech companies put up record profits and turn around and fire 20% of staff. So, so that happens if you're a public company. Um, but if you're a private company, you tend to be a little more chill if you're profitable. Um, and then when tough times hit, then you look around and you're like, okay, I guess I have to start making tough decisions. Um, so I totally agree with you that that's the danger scenario and that we may be, uh, heading in that direction right now.

Right. And the other point that I really try to emphasize in the book is even if none of those bad things happen, we don't get into a recession, if we get into a situation where a lot of jobs are being lost, that itself is going to be an enormous headwind against the economy. I mean, you have got many people in Silicon Valley, the techno-optimists. There's one think tank that I reference in the book. That is talking about potentially with the advent of truly advanced AI, you know, like AGI, we could have economic growth 20% or 30% in the United States, which is, you know, just an extraordinary claim to make. I mean, given—

yeah, that's bananas given the size of our economy, right? Yeah, it's bananas. And one of the points you make in the book, um, which I thought was really smart and I totally agree with, is that if you are going to see the automation of work, a lot of them are going to be— higher-paid white-collar workers like lawyers or accountants or financiers or marketing professionals that get cut. And so you're looking at people who often make six figures who are going to be shown the door. And that's going to be an extraordinarily painful adjustment, not just for those families and individuals, but also for the real estate market, for the consumer market, because this is a population that ordinarily spends a lot of money.

That's right. Uh, actually, in the United States right now, the top 10% of households, which is households earning at least $250,000 a year, they are responsible for fully half of consumer spending. So that's half of consumer spending. And it's, you know, consumer spending is essentially what drives the economy, right? It's 70% of GDP in the U.S. And, and, um, I mean, you If the top half of that is dramatically impacted by this, that's going to have a tremendous impact on the economy. So this scenario that the techno-optimists are talking about, where you've got extraordinary levels of economic growth while your best consumers are either losing their jobs or extremely worried about losing their jobs, it doesn't make a lot of sense to me. I mean, if you look at economic history, I mean, when we have high unemployment, that's an economic downturn. I don't think you can find a case when we've got high unemployment and the economy is just ripping. You know, that really hasn't happened. And in reality, even when we have a recession, it's a pretty modest unemployment number. It's like usually 6% to 8%, right? In recent memory, the worst case was the Great Recession back in 2008. It hit 10%. If you want to find an example of unemployment higher than 10%, you've got to go back to the Great Depression, right, of the 1930s. So I really think that the people who are thinking about this are just not giving enough attention to the potential impact of unemployment. And the fact that it's going to be potentially highly skilled white-collar workers is a real problem. It's even a problem when you think about a basic income as a possible solution, right, because You know, most basic income schemes that I've seen, it's around $1,000 a month, right? And, and here you're talking about people that might be earning $10,000 a month or even more, and they're going to have a mortgage, you know, predicated upon them continuing to have that income. Um, so even if we had a basic income and they, they lose that job and you give them $1,000, I mean, it's, it's really not going to solve the problem. So that's why I say We really need a lot of people thinking about this, um, and, and trying to figure out what exactly we're going to do.

Well, Martin, you are one of the preeminent thinkers, uh, and seers behind this. I read your 2009 book Lights in the Tunnel, um, and obviously your 2015, uh, book that was profoundly influential for me and many others, Rise of the Robots. And I really enjoyed the updated edition um, with the new material in the beginning and the end. And so much of your argument stands up incredibly well today, better than ever. I mean, by the way, I'll say like a lot of my stuff from The War on Normal People, um, also has aged really well. You know, people read it, they're like, wow. But your, your stuff too. Um, so congratulations, uh, on the updated edition. If someone wants to keep up with you and your thoughts and get a sense of what you think about the present and the future, how can they best do so?

Best place to go is Twitter or X now, I guess. It's @mfordfuture, @mfordfuture. And there are also links there to Amazon where you can find a book and so forth. And I try to tweet, you know, news stories that basically support my thesis. So that's the best place to stay in touch.

You're a smart and honest man, Martin. And, you know, I wish there were more people like you. Certainly, I think people should be listening to you and your words and your writing. Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future, updated edition by Martin Ford. It is out, I want to say today or this week. So I'd urge people to pick it up. If you didn't read the original, this book is going to blow your mind. And even if you did read the original, I learned a lot from the new stuff.

Thank you, Andrew. It's really a pleasure to be here.

Martin, again, learn from you every time.

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