Coronavirus Conversations - Day 37

Hi everybody, we've had some technical issues, I think, with Facebook yet again, and it looks like we may be back in the game. I don't know until I hear from you guys. Let me know how this is all working out. Lots to talk about today, lots of interesting things, and I first want to address something I think that's really kind of on everyone's mind based upon what you're seeing in the media, seeing social media, seeing on news feeds, etc. And that is answering the question as to where did this virus come from. We're hearing so much about that it came from this wet market in Wuhan, or it may have been created as a bioterrorist weapon in another country, or perhaps in China as well. And, you know, this is really important to answer. I'm sure for many people. It isn't for me. And I'm going to tell you, I'm not burying my head in the sand on this, but it doesn't really help me do what I do. And what I do is try to stay healthy and try to connect with all of you to give you good information. I don't think that identifying the source of this virus is going to necessarily be helpful for me and possibly not for you. If it were a laboratory-created virus, Then we will immediately jump on the notion of blaming somebody, right? And once we do that, then we get into this whole thing of anger and fear. And once we approach anger and fear and perhaps even revenge, then we're compromising our own immune systems. Not a good thing. The more we embrace anger and revenge, when— if you think you know who started this virus, the worse it is for you in terms of your immunity, and that may bode poorly for you in terms of outcome if you catch COVID-19. So what I'm doing is I'm not paying attention to the emails, the YouTube links, the social media stuff that people are sending me about where it came from. I am not smart enough to understand if it's real or not real. That's not my area of expertise. So I don't engage it. I don't know anything about intelligence and military intelligence and all that stuff. So I'm not that bright when it comes to that stuff. And so therefore, I don't really feel competent to be a person to vet that information and come up with an answer. If you have the answer, then what? How is it going to help you, each of you today, make better decisions in terms of you know, your health in terms of going out, in terms of wearing a mask or not wearing a mask and all that stuff. It's a diversion and it's bad for your immune system, in my humble opinion. The next thing I'd like to talk about is there seems to be this idea— I'm going to post something for you guys right now— this idea that we should open schools very quickly because— and I'll post this right now if I can— comment is David Perlmutter, that would be me. I'm not sure that I can. Well, let me just talk anyhow. The idea of opening schools quickly. We know that keeping kids out of school is a problem, that is for sure. This is a critical time, you know, for young kids, young people to be learning, but, you know, the idea of them going back to school, is it necessarily safe? Well, there's been some ideas circulated about children can go to school, they can catch COVID-19, they don't transmit it to adults. And I want you to understand there's a great body of research from Germany and from China indicating that that is not the case, that children can be asymptomatic carriers and transmit this disease to mom and dad and grandma and grandpa, and that can be an issue. So while kids can get this infection and probably do pretty well and maybe even not even show symptoms, They may bring home something like this as a gift to the family, which is not good. So I think we have to think about that, that kids may pretty well be safe, but then what happens when they come home? And so this is really very important. It's true that kids are missing out on valuable education, but let's think of some of the upsides of having kids at home. They're learning— social skills, they're interacting with multiple generations, that might be a good thing. I'm just trying to put a bit of a positive spin on it. You know, it can't all be negative. So that's just an idea that we should be thinking about. The last topic I'd like to bring up today is this notion, and it was the first reference I sent you today, of the second wave. I think it's pretty close to most of the scientists who are studying this at institutions and doing what we call modelling, modelling based upon previous viruses, based upon current experience with COVID-19, are indicating that we're going to have a second round, and that perhaps the second round will be aggressive but might not be as aggressive as it is this first time around, Nobody knows. The timing of the second round of COVID-19, having looked at multiple models, is variable but seems to be somewhere around October to November depending upon what we do now. That our efforts right now to maintain social distancing, do the things like handwashing while likely, you know, getting businesses open may well tend to push the time back as to when we will expect this second wave. And I would assume, and I do believe, that once October, November rolls around, we will be far along on understanding effective treatment. We'll see where the immunization protocols are, how far along we are on that. But I think we're going to be in a heck of a lot better shape to deal with round 2, which I do believe is going to be something that we do experience. Nobody wants it to happen, that's for sure. Nobody wanted this in the first place, but I'm just speaking from the heart here in terms of the research that I've done about what we're likely to expect. The point is, though, that we are all participants in this in terms of our day-to-day activities. Yeah, it's— businesses are opening up, That's all great, but it doesn't mean that we're supposed to cash in our chips right now and come what may, just get exposed to the virus and hope for the best. It still remains a bad virus that you don't want to get. All right, let us— let's look at some of these interesting questions. OK, from Izzy in Germany. I got 3 kids here in school, and I don't feel good about sending them back to school. And I think that's a good thing to think about. Kids have to get back to school in one form or another, but we have to think of it in the big picture in terms of them representing an infective vector. Think about the very possible source and one of the pushers of the new nifty vaccines. Not sure what you're getting at. There is a lot of talk about vaccines and safety of vaccines, and I'd like to comment on that. No vaccine is fully safe, that's for sure. We always look at the risk-benefit ratios. According to CDC information, the influenza vaccine that is popularised every year has an effectiveness of between 20% and 40%. That's the flu shot that we're all told to get. On a good year, it's only 40% effective, meaning about 60% of people don't get the flu. 60% of people who get the flu shot don't derive any benefit from it. And that's CDC-published information. You can Google that. It's widely available. What will the effectiveness of a coronavirus vaccine be? Nobody knows. What will the risks be? Nobody knows. Will it be totally risk-free? I think that's not likely. Any vaccine will likely have some risk associated with it. So I'm not hoping— I don't sound like a pro versus an anti-vaxxer here. I think we gotta just take a deep breath, see how it plays out, see what the safety studies look like, and deal with it. Okay, next comment. No conspiracy, it is almost proof positive that the virus came from Wuhan lab. Okay, believe that if you will. I'm not saying it's right, I'm not saying it's wrong, but I don't think For me, I want to spend my day worrying about where it came from. It's here, whether it came from Wuhan wet market, a laboratory, or from the man in the moon. It's here, and it's something we have to deal with. Knowing where it came from, I'm not sure helps me help you or will help you spending a lot of time dealing or wondering about where it came from. Joan Smith, you're making so much sense. How helpful it would be for more people to look at this rationally and logically. It's a virus, not an infection. Well, with all due respect, it's an infection caused by a virus. Okay, let me just see if there's any other— yeah, Facebook not doing well today. I did this. I had to restart multiple times to make this happen, that's for sure. I want to say— oh, Izzy is saying, my kids helping— helped starting a garden, ride the bike, learning cooking jams. They do learn some good things at home. Boy, that's wonderful to hear. You know, kids learn a lot from their interactions at home, from their older and younger siblings, from their parents, and even from grandparents. So there's got to be some upsides about having kids at home. You know, there's a lot of lessons to learn in life that are well beyond reading, writing, and arithmetic. Remember the 3 Rs? There's a lot of social things that we learn growing up that kids should learn growing up now that are extremely valuable. And here are some kids Azie was telling us about that are learning about starting a vegetable garden. That is super cool, and I think that's going to help them in their later lives. Okay, let's see. Second round is coming, no doubt, probably will come in late May. That may happen, and we'll see when it comes. So the second wave is inevitable? There are very few things that are inevitable. I would say that it looks like from most of the scientists that we will see a second wave. Not guaranteed, that's for sure. Um, okay, let me take a couple more questions and comments. Uh, uh, let me say, uh, thank you for all of you who joined me yesterday in the garden. Uh, I was in the garden yesterday playing guitar a little bit and then took everybody on a tour of the vegetables. We're growing eggplant, which I'm so excited to see. String beans appeared yesterday afternoon for the first time. For all of you who I told that we weren't getting string beans. We now have them. They're bearing fruit. We have a bunch of tomatoes that are suddenly showing themselves. So that's really very exciting. And hey, learning about gardening, what an interesting new skill. How can we know of the safety of vaccines since they do not safely test them? I think that there is a due diligence to test the vaccine. There are vaccines out there right now that may well be effective, but are not being marketed because they have to undergo the scrutiny of human trials. As you know, Moderna has now started phase 3 human trials after proving efficacy and safety in a primate model, so it's companies doing hopefully their due diligence to prove safety. Now think back to the swine flu, they did provide an immunisation programme, and ultimately stopped it because it was causing what's called Guillain-Barré syndrome in people, in some few people, but nonetheless it was a serious problem, so they pulled it from the market. So none of this is 100%, and there's not one side or the other. I think it's good to look at this information. I've been often asked in this venue, will I take the immunisation when it becomes available? And I'm not trying to dodge the question, but I don't have an answer for you yet. For now, I'm doing everything I can not to get infected with this virus by staying at home as much as possible. We do go to the grocery store. Washing my hands, wearing a mask when I go out. I bike and run, and I'm outside quite a bit, but if I'm not around people, I don't wear a mask. I don't see that there's a need. These are steps that we've been taking now for the past 6 to 8 weeks. So far, so good. And I think what I want to say is don't let up. Don't let your guard down yet. Until there is a really good and widely available treatment, I don't think we should be backing down. At the same time, it's important that we embrace the idea that people have to get back to work because not having a job Is life-threatening as well. So we have to come to a median here, a meeting ground where people can work and at the same time do so in a way as not to jeopardize themselves and certainly not to jeopardize other people. Okay. Okay. Knowing where it came from could help researchers understand the virus better. If it's a true bat virus, it will thrive on Dark, cold conditions. Okay, perhaps. Is herd immunity movement, let's all get it, reasonable approach? Let's talk about herd immunity, and it's something to think about because once we reach a threshold of number of people with protection via antibodies, then the virus cannot continue to spread as easily and will ultimately Stop finding people to latch onto. That's what herd immunity is all about. There are 2 ways to achieve herd immunity, and they are not mutually exclusive. Way number one would be probably to have this, to have been infected by COVID-19. I'm not suggesting that you should go out and catch this virus, but if for whatever reason you have had it, Likely, though I cannot guarantee it, you have immunity. So you're part— your immunity adds to the percentage of humans who have this immunity. The other way is by having an immunisation whereby then your body creates these antibodies and you have your immunity. Now, the value of thinking about herd immunity Is because once there are fewer number of people for this virus to attach to, it should decline. Now, the reason we still have so few people percentage-wise in terms of Americans infected is because we've been doing the thing. We've been distancing ourselves from others and washing our hands, wearing the masks, and keeping as best we can away from potential sources of infection. Nonetheless, there is some indication that a lot more people in America have been infected than are being reported. Understand that when you go to the Johns Hopkins website and you look at the number of reported cases, or you look at the number of cases that are reported in your state, those are the number of people who have tested positive for The virus, and so that said, how many tests are being done? It's been estimated that it may be as high as 20-fold higher, the number of people in our country who have been infected. This takes us back to this notion of being an asymptomatic individual. You might have gotten this virus, had no symptoms, so likely you're not going to get tested because you never felt sick. Right. That's why looking at these statistics in terms of the number of people infected need to be questioned. Now, let's get back to our discussion on this herd immunity idea. The more people who have antibodies, the less able is the virus to spread. The country of Sweden has taken a different approach than perhaps we have taken, or other countries have taken. They've said pretty much we're going to keep our stores, our schools, etc., open. We're going to keep our economy moving and hope for the best. Well, 2 things to consider as it relates to that approach. First, their death rate is a bit higher in comparison to other nearby countries like Finland and Denmark, and also the number of cases seems to be rising. But they're going to reach this level of herd immunity likely much sooner than other countries because more people are getting infected and ultimately will be immune, we believe. So they're playing the long game. They're looking at where they want to be in 2 weeks, 5 weeks, couple of months versus countries who are still aggressively locking down. And I can't come down on one side or the other. I can't say what's right. I can tell you what's right for me, what I've chosen to do because I don't want to get this virus, but these are ideas that nations are exploring and I think we have to watch how it plays out. So, you know, you can comment if you want about am I right or am I wrong, but I haven't put my nickel down on this, so I think we should still keep ourselves, whether we're going back to work or not, we should still exercise our social distancing and handwashing, and I believe wearing masks when we're near other people as well. Wow. In the late 1960s, I believe this young man's father was the neurosurgeon who did brain surgery on my precious son. That would have been my dad. Yes, there you go. Thank you. Um, Moriah Anderson says it's a numbers game. That's right. We've got to watch these numbers closely, and we have to be dynamic in terms of our messaging. Many of the things that I'm saying to you right now might sound a little different than what we talked about 5, 6 weeks ago at the early— at the onset of this problem, and it's because things are changing. Our observations are changing. We've got to be able to embrace that. That's a good thing. I'll take a couple more questions, and then I'm going to let you go. I would say— oh, yeah, great. Great to see you in the garden. Finding moments of connection makes such a difference. Lockdown alone is an interesting challenge. Connection becomes so important. I'm going to do my very, very best to not only stay connected with everybody on this forum, But hope that you guys stay connected as well by virtue of the testing— texting rather that you're doing with each other. And also, you know what, pick up the phone, text somebody, make a connection with somebody that you haven't talked to for a while. That's good for you and good for your immune system. In addition, my blog on Sunday next week will talk about how expressing gratitude is good for the person who you express it to, But also good for you. Last couple of questions. Blessings from Toronto. Miss it. We would have been there at this time of year. Great last comment. Stress is killing the immune system. I agree with that. I agree with that. Stress is something very aggressive towards your immune system negatively, and so that's to be avoided. And Stress can be brought into your life if, for example, you are fanning the flames of wanting to embrace these ideas about where this virus came from. Again, it may have been created in a lab, may have been natural from the wet market. Interesting for some people to explore that. That's not what I do for a living, so that's not what I get engaged in. Okay. All right. Let me take one last— I'm sorry. Interesting question here, and let's see, this is a comment. Navajo Nation is being hit hard right now. We know that to be true. And last question, and then I will say goodbye for now. In the herd immunity theory, what would people with pre-existing respiratory conditions do? Would they shelter in place still? Yes. Let's talk about that. Herd immunity doesn't mean that people with pre-existing or underlying conditions should necessarily get out and participate in the percentages of people who become immune. That's not what this is all about, and actually it's not really about anybody going out and getting coronavirus. You know, there is a tendency To think that's what you want to do. I can tell you right now, I've thought about it. You know, falling asleep at night thinking, I just want this to be over. I want to be able to resume my life. I think I should just go out and get this virus. Back down from that. I mean, take a deep breath. As I've said many times, we're in this for the marathon. This is not the sprint. I have thought about going out and getting it. I know people who have it. And I'm thinking, you know, like the measles, or rather chickenpox. Like, we used to think kids should just go over to somebody's house and get chickenpox. Don't do it. It's a bad virus, a real bad virus. I ran into somebody, I was walking the dog last evening, ran into another person walking his dog, and he started giving me the argument about it. You know, it's just like the flu, it's only, it's a lung infection and you can get it and you can do fine. Well, what did we just review last week? We reviewed The data published in the Journal of the American Medical Association, a large study looking at what happens to people who end up in the intensive care unit. And what happens to these people is that 3.2% of people who go into the ICU end up on dialysis, required dialysis because their kidneys shut down. A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine showed that about a third of people who are discharged from the hospital have neurologic issues, like problems in performing executive function, trying to complete a task. So this is well beyond a lung issue. The heart is aggressively involved in this infection. So the notion that it's simply a lung disorder and suck it up, you're going to be fine, You know, it isn't that way. These numbers are not looking good. They far exceed what we would typically experience in influenza. That's my opinion. It's based upon the science that I read. I do see opinions that are vetted, that are put up here on the feed, and what can you say? I get, you know, everyone's entitled to their opinion, and I must have just struck a A note because we just added 100 new people. I don't know what we were talking about that caused so many people to join in. Anyway, okay, I will talk to everybody soon. Thank you for joining me. I'll take any requests on songs that you want me to play if I get back out in the garden and do a live stream from there. But that's all I got for today. Love you all. I'm so grateful that we get to spend time together. And I hope we can do this again very, very soon. Bye-bye for now.