A look at how the 2024 presidential election might affect mortgage rates, drawing on what happened to rates after 2016. The speaker examines potential government spending and inflation as the main factors that could move rates up or down.
In the wake of the 2024 presidential election, mortgage rates have jumped up about a quarter percent the following morning. We look back to 2016, the previous time Trump was elected. This is kind of right on par. They jumped about a half percent that week. And if history repeats itself, mortgage rates kind of stayed at that half percent higher elevated level through the end of that year. And then in the spring of 2017, rates started coming back down and recovery. So we're hoping to see something similar here, where it's just a blip on the radar and rates recover. This is in large part because they feel like there's more government spending coming our way. It also kind of looks like potential, you know, Republican presidency, Senate and House. And if that is a sweep there from either side, either party, that opens the door for more government spending. More spending is inflation. I know Trump has plans to cut a lot of government spending, so we'll see how it all plays out. But inflation's still the name of the game. They're just going to watch what the policies and the actions that go with those policies have to do with inflation, and mortgage rates will go up and down with it.
