A single speaker examines economic warning signs in August 2023: strikes, bankruptcies, layoffs, and credit downgrades. The video analyzes whether these indicators suggest a recession is coming and what it could mean for mortgage rates.
Recently we've seen UPS workers threatening job strikes, yellow freight going into bankruptcy, CVS having major layoffs, and then just this week the US's credit rating got downgraded. Heck, a few months ago there was banks defaulting. So a lot of signs that the US economy has some kind of cracks in the armor. And this unfortunately is kind of what mortgage rates have somewhat been waiting for. Now it's not going to be an overnight fix or a really short term thing, but I think it's starting to show which direction the economy is heading into. And we don't take this lightly. It's people's livelihoods on the line. We're just looking at it from a data mortgage rate perspective where the economy has been so hot for so long and the jobs reports have stayed stubbornly high because more people are getting part time second jobs and that looks like jobs are being picked up. But it's just the same person duplicating getting another job, not new people getting jobs. So there's some tailwind that'll fizzle out. All of this kind of starts pointing towards a potential recession in the near future. Mortgage rates do really, really good in recessions because people investors go to bonds, when bonds are strong, mortgage rates drop. I think this is what we'll see in the not so distant future.
