This is a YouTube video titled "Recent Mortgage Rate Trends! #fhamortgage #fhaloans #fha #homeloans #mortgagerates" containing a monologue discussing recent job numbers, seasonal adjustments, full-time job losses, and their impact on mortgage rates, as well as geopolitical events influencing bond markets and mortgage rates. The content is an analysis or commentary on economic indicators related to the housing and mortgage market.
Last week's jobs numbers reported that we had gained 336 jobs over the previous month. But there was a huge 1.2 million revision baked in there. If you stripped that out, it actually would have revealed we lost 885,000 jobs if that was actually reported correctly. Mortgage rates are throwing a huge party right now to be dropping significantly. A big part of the revision were seasonally adjusted. Things like shipping companies are bulking up for the wintertime and teachers are coming back because the school year starts. Those aren't new people picking up new jobs, it's just seasonally adjusted. So it doesn't show strength really in the labor force. And then we've talked about how a lot of people are picking up part time jobs right now to make ends meet. Well, the full time job numbers, we've actually lost 692,000 full time jobs in the last three months. The last three times that's happened, 2001, 2008 and Covid, all three led to recessions. We know recessions are unfortunately really good for mortgage rates. And then you have the super sad news out of Israel, Palestine over the weekend. It's had a lot of global investors kind of running to safety and going into the bond market. When bonds are strong, mortgage rates are low. So there's a lot of key indicators.
