Most people think one step ahead. Second-order thinking means asking "and then what?" to see consequences ripple across time and stakeholders. Map decisions across 10 minutes to 10 years, consider who gets affected, and track outcomes in a diary to spot patterns you'd otherwise miss.
Chapters
Are you making quick decisions for efficiency to later find Bad stuff happens. Start second order thinking. It's what smart people use to outperform others. Here's the crush Right now you're hungry so you grab the chocolate bar. This is a first order decision. It's fast and easy to make. The longer harder decision to make is to eat something healthy. What's the point? First order decisions solve the now for example, let's make a bigger promise in our advert. But these lead to unintended consequences known as second and third order consequences. In this case unmet expectations, bad review and refund request. Then there's the third order unhappy staff, finger pointing and toxic gossip. So how to become a second order thinker? 1. Ask and then what to predict what may happen next. 2. What do consequences look like in 10 minutes, 10 months, 10 years? Think customers, employees, systems, finances, reputation. It helps to look at your KPIs and documented strategy whilst doing this exercise. 3. Use this template to map your thinking also doubles up as a decision making diary.