Short talk arguing that even jobs seemingly safe from AI can be affected indirectly via second-order effects. The speaker predicts automation of transportation roles (self-driving cars, trucks, trains) will eliminate millions of driving jobs and ripple into supporting industries (cafes, hotels, gas stations). Advises listeners to map connected industries and anticipate knock-on effects.
Chapters
If you think your job is safe from AI, it's worth thinking about second order impact. So there are certain roles and industries that we know basically are done for. For example, transportation and logistics. In the foreseeable future, we're probably going to have self driving cars, trucks and trains. It's becoming a question not of if, but when. I mean, it might take a few years, it might take decades, it doesn't really matter. It's going to happen eventually. So we kind of know that the jobs of trucking and driving and piloting trains, they are gone eventually. That's 5 million drivers in the US and about 1 million in the UK. That's a lot of people already. But what you need to think about is the second order. You might be thinking, I'm not a trucker, I don't drive a train, this doesn't affect me. But the second order impact is where we need to start to be careful. We remove these people and we no longer need as many cafe attendants, hoteliers or gas station attendants. Any industries that support the transportation industry will be impacted, not necessarily directly in the same way that transportation and driving will be, but because there are just less drivers on the road. Therefore we need less hotels and less rest stops to feed the drivers. So even if you're in an industry that isn't directly affected by AI, and there's not that many of them, you need to think about further up the chain. What industries are connected to your industry that could be affected and then what are the knock on effects of that?