Jimmy KimCEO & Founder, Commerce Roundtable · Marketer of 17+ Years, 4x Founder. Former DTC/Retailer & SaaS Founder. Newsletter. Host of ASOM & Send it! Podcast. DTC Event: Commerce Roundtable

BFCM Customers: Why They Have the Worst LTV All Year

16 Aug 2026 · 1 min

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1:20

In this solo commentary, Jimmy Kim argues that customers acquired during the Black Friday/Cyber Monday (BFCM) window are the lowest‑value buyers of the year. He cites data showing BFCM‑acquired shoppers have 30‑40% lower repurchase rates, lower average order values on subsequent purchases, higher discount‑redemption rates, and faster churn compared to customers acquired in non‑promotional periods. Because they are deal‑driven, their first purchase yields the lowest margin and they tend to wait for the next promotion before buying again. Kim highlights that while brands often celebrate large acquisition numbers (e.g., 40,000 new customers during BFCM), only 15‑20% of those are likely to repurchase, versus the typical 40‑50% for non‑promo customers. He translates this into lifetime value (LTV) figures: a typical customer is worth about $200, whereas a BFCM customer is worth roughly $80. Consequently, acquisition cost expectations should be dramatically lower for BFCM shoppers; otherwise, brands erode unit economics by spending the same CAC as for higher‑value customers. The video calls for brands to recalibrate acquisition spend and expectations for the BFCM period.

Chapters

Customers acquired through BFCM are quite arguably the worst LTV customers that you get all year round. The brands keep optimizing for acquisition for this window, and they're well documented. The reality is most people are still ignoring it, especially at the brand level and across multiple brands and categories. BFCM acquired customers have 30 to 40% lower repurchase rates than customers acquired in non-promotional periods. So lower AOV on subsequent purchases, higher discount redemption rate, and a faster churn. All the 3 worst things that you want out of a buyer. And because they came for the deal, they generally have like little to no relationship with the brand. They got the lowest margin first purchase and they're conditioned almost to wait for that next deal at this point. And if brands celebrate BFCM acquisition numbers like they're great, we acquired 40,000 new customers during BFCM. You've seen that before? You know, how many of those are going to buy again next year? The data shows that probably 15 to 20% versus the typical 40 to 50% you might have from your customers acquired in a non-promo window. So if you do the customer acquisition cost math on a BFCM customer, you need to almost think radically different. It's like a normal customer is worth $200 LTV, but a BFCM might be only worth $80. So you can pay way less to acquire them, or else it doesn't make sense for the brand. And most brands aren't doing that math. They're spending the same customer acquisition costs on BFCM customers and watching their unit economics quietly degrade.