How to Effectively Combat Confirmation Bias with Melina Palmer

Hello, my friend, and welcome to another episode of Negotiate Anything. Thanks for spending time with us today. It's listeners like you in 181 different countries that have made Negotiate Anything the most popular negotiation and conflict resolution podcast in the world. I'm your host, Kwame Christian. I'm a business lawyer, mediator, professor, and the director of the American Negotiation Institute. Before we get started, I have two quick questions for you. Is negotiation a critical part of what you do need to resolve conflict and persuade at work? If you answered yes to both of those questions, visit our website to learn more about our negotiation workshops. We've traveled the country working with professionals just like you, and we'd love to have the opportunity to work with you, too. Check out the link in the description to learn more. Melina, thanks for joining us today.

Absolutely. Very excited to be here.

Yeah, we're excited to have you. So how about you start us off by telling us a little bit about yourself and what you do?

Sure. Well, I am a behavioral economist with a background in marketing and brand strategy. So I essentially help people and businesses to understand how the brain actually makes its decisions in buying decisions as well as, you know, how we have good conversations and things like that. And I share that information with people on my podcast, the Brainy Business, and through consulting and public speaking and things like that. So that's a little bit about me.

I'm excited to get into confirmation bias today. And so the three things we're going to talk about is first, we're going to say, what is confirmation bias? Where do we start there? And then how to combat confirmation bias in yourself. And then if you think somebody else has it, well, how do you work through that? Where's the persuasion angle? So let's just start off with getting to know confirmation bias. Where should we start?

Yeah, so I mean, really, I would start just first to talk a little bit about the brain, if I may, and understanding kind of how that works. So when we think about our brains and if you were just going to sit down and say, what does my brain do? Anything that comes to mind for you is going to be stuff that's in your conscious cognitive processing space. And, you know, you have a subconscious, it's there, but we don't really like to think about how much it's actually doing at any given time. And so the highest study that I've seen, this puts our subconscious processing at 99.999% of what your brain's doing at any given time, all its decisions and choices, and all of that being done by your subconscious, meaning 0.001 is in your conscious brain space. And the lowest studies put it at 95%. So a very significant portion of what's happening all the time are things that our brains are doing without us really realizing what's going on. The conscious thinks it's in charge, but really, you know, the subconscious is doing all sorts of things and it uses rules of thumb that have worked for it in the past, or, you know, genetically. There's nature and nurture involved in all of to say, I know how to do this, I know how to do that, I have a role for that, I have a rule for that. And it doesn't even flag the conscious to do anything most of the time. So to think about how this has developed for you, think about driving a car. So when you first learned to drive a car, it was very slow, difficult, tedious. You're really having to focus on where your hands are, where you're looking, where your mirrors are, which pedal does what. And it just is a difficult, slow process. When you drove your car today, last time you drove your car, it's very easy and you don't really even have to think about it. Maybe you've had that experience of getting home and not sure how you got there, don't even remember. Your brain still made all the same decisions and all those items mattered. But it was being done by your subconscious and its rules of thumb that it uses to make choices. And we don't need to turn on our conscious until it's pouring rain and you're between a semi truck and a guardrail and you can just kind of feel everything, like slow down and really focus in on what you're doing. You feel every little movement in the steering wheel just super hyper aware. And that's really where the conscious is taking over. Because subconscious says, okay, this is important now. You need to be doing this. And so what matters here is those, all those rules of thumb, and there are hundreds of them going on all the time in our brains. The biases, the ways we make choices, what we do. You know, confirmation bias is one of many that's happening in our brains all the time when we're having conversations and when we're having particularly difficult conversations where we're scared or nervous, then subconscious is taking actually a lot more action. It's doing even more than we would like it to. This is why we, you know, practice before we go into difficult conversations and things like that. So that's that little bit on the brain now, confirmation bias. Is that when our brains get what they expect. So we are biased to believe that we are smarter, better, faster, more amazing than everyone else in the entire world. And so our brain will be looking for things that will reflect and sort of support the decision it's already making. You know, what it thinks is true. And so if you go into a negotiation and think this person's difficult, they're gonna be. They're gonna be difficult. I know this is gonna be a problem. That's what your brain will see. And it will pick up on those tidbits as it's filtering out information and deciding what it wants to bring to your conscious attention, it'll be picking that up. If you go into the negotiation and say, you know, Kwame is such a nice guy, I know it's going to be an easy conversation, he wants to work with me, you're going to pick up on those things instead. And I know when we had our conversation, when you joined me on the Brainy business podcast, I had mentioned, just to take the numbers on the subconscious a little bit further, your subconscious brain, if you were to think about it like a computer, it can do 11 million bits of information per second that it's able to be processing. And the conscious brain can only do about 40 compared to 11 million, which is rough. It's a real difference in there. And so if you think about that number in a slightly different way to say for every one piece of information that made it to your conscious brain, 275,000 other things were not important enough to make it into the conscious space. So you're picking up on what it's deeming to be important, and it's trying to confirm that it's right basically all the time. That's what our brains want to be doing.

Right. And that makes sense. And that kind of explains how people interact in these conversations, because they're only seeing it from one perspective. They I want to feel right. Your brain is designed to approach it in that way. And so it just becomes a self fulfilling prophecy. In a lot of, a lot of times, when we have a preconceived notion of the way things are or the way we think they should be, we're only looking for that information that confirms it and it has predictably bad results when it comes to our difficult conversations. And so now that we have a better understanding of what confirmation bias actually is, what about when we recognize in ourselves that we might be having it, how can we use this information to make better decisions and fight confirmation bias?

Yeah. So there are four different ways that really you can see confirmation bias either in you or in someone else. So the first thing is that you're not looking for objective facts. So this is when you're going to search for something and if you have a, you know, topic in mind, like we can even just say confirmation bias as a topic. So if you were going to go and search for, for confirmation bias, you could search, is confirmation bias real confirmation bias, a hoax? Like what is confirmation bias? Right? And so the way you look for it or like confirmation bias studies on Google Scholar will give you something different than if you look with these kind of hyper terms. And so when you are looking for things that aren't objectively there, it's going to bring more confirmation bias information around and you also are going to interpret information to support whatever you already believe. So when you read the information, I love giving the example of, you know, whether it's horoscopes or, you know, things along those lines. I also saw somebody did a post recently that was talking about the time of day and saying, is there a certain time of day where you always realize that you looked at the clock? You know, so people say, I always look at the clock when it's 11:11 or when it's 12:34. And it's crazy that I always, that's the only time I look. But really you looked. You're not thinking about the hundreds, thousands, however many times you looked at the clock and your subconscious didn't think it was important enough to be of note. Whereas you think, oh, 11:11, that's a fun time. And so you notice it and you're more likely to be looking for it around that time because you, your body knows what's going on. And so it feels like that's all that the only time you look. And it must mean something, but really it's just the only time that your brain filtered that out for you. So in conversations with people, when you're going into negotiations, whatever it happens to be, when you're getting ready to have the conversation, I think sitting with yourself and thinking, how do I feel about this person? How this conversation is going to go, what details am I picking up on? And is that going to be serving me well in what I'm trying to accomplish? So someone maybe have a reputation of being a really difficult negotiator, someone that's really tough to be in a room with. And if you go in with that expectation, it's going to have a different difficult. You have an uphill battle no matter what you do. Whereas if you look for this person is just a person and we're trying to be on the same page, how can I relate to them? Or, you know, using the compassionate curiosity framework. Right. How can I be looking for. For that in this conversation of points where we can relate? If I'm maybe more open and looking for examples of how where they're willing to have a conversation, you can kind of find. Flip your confirmation bias to work for you instead of against you.

Does your company invest in professional development training? If you believe that your team would benefit from a negotiation workshop, all you need to do is go to our website, fill out the workshop request form, and then we'll set up a time to chat. These workshops are completely customizable and we've done them all around the country. Negotiation and conflict resolution skills are beneficial across all professions, but they're especially useful in procurement, purchasing, sales, sourcing, and contract management. Our calendar is filling up quickly and we even have some workshops scheduled for next year if you think you might want one. I'd suggest reaching out soon so you don't miss out. Check out the link in the description to learn more. And now back to the show. So this is really interesting to me, and it made me think about the Barnum effect, where it's named after P.T. barnum, the circus. And what they found is that they've done studies to say, okay, we have this horoscope. Horoscope, and it's written in a very, very vague way. And you give it to anybody, and anybody could read it and say, yeah, that's me. It describes me really well. And it's almost like if you're already a person who believes in those types of things, you're more likely to assign relevance and legitimacy to it. And I wonder what the relationship between the Barnum effect and confirmation bias.

I think they're very, you know, two sides of the same coin, essentially. And both to whether you believe it or whether you don't, it's the same as seeing that there's purpose in that 1111 situation. That if you believe that horoscopes are true and that they're speaking to you and you can read the vaguest of vague statements of you're gonna have an amazing day. And then looking around and say, today is going to be amazing. This is amazing, you're only going to be finding the amazing stuff. And so if your horoscope says, watch out when you're crossing the street, you're going to be looking for things every time you go to cross the street that could have been dangerous to say, oh, a car drove by right when I was thinking I was going to cross the street. That's amazing. But you know, cars drive by all the time. And so the way that you look at them really shifts based on what you're trying to prove or not. The, the other piece that's really part of this conversation, I think is the focusing illusion in which everything feels like it's much more important than it really is when you're paying attention to it. So when I'm looking for or at something, my brain will find ways to make it true and make it seem like it's the most important thing. And then you get, whether it's loss averse or whatever that is. You know, you have the, you're trying to clean up and get rid of old clothes and then you pick up a sweater that you haven't worn in a year and then you start when you're holding it and looking at it and you think, well, I mean, but maybe, and I'll be so upset if it's gone and what would this and that, and I'll just leave it on the shelf for another six months and if I haven't worn it then, you know, and then you go and forget about it again because it doesn't really matter until you're really paying attention to it and you know, you're on the edge of getting rid of it. You know, real trick that you can teach for yourself would be if you know that you are biased, which we all are. And maybe you're someone who thinks horoscopes are bogus. Okay, we'll go with that approach and say they don't mean anything. And every time you hear somebody say something about like, well, I'm a Pisces, so whatever that you have the automatic sort of eye roll response. If you were to try to bring in some compassion and think, if I believed that, what would I do right now? If this meant something to me, if I was someone who believed in this thing, how might I find evidence of that being true right now? And if you shift that even in negotiation and conversations with people that you think are difficult or a topic that you're unwilling to budge on, it's same piece of compassion of saying, I'm having an automatic response that I am angry or I don't like whatever this is, or I think they're difficult, but if that wasn't true, how might I look at this differently and how could that change the conversation? Then your brain will start looking for different Things to confirm instead of whatever it is that's not helping you and serving you well.

Right. It makes a lot of sense. And I can tell that if we're able to start doing this in our difficult conversations, it's going to help us to empathize at a higher level because we're not just thinking, thinking about the situation from our perspective, but we're also thinking about it from their perspective, too. And it will probably lead to a higher level of respect, too, because a lot of times we just completely disrespect what it is the person's saying. What you said was just absolutely preposterous. I don't even know how to, how to address it in any other way other than completely dismissing it. So I think if we're able to kind of step in their shoes and then think through, okay, how do you think they came to this conclusion? If I were them, how would I argue this case? Then it puts you in a much better position to persuade and you can see things a lot more thoroughly, too.

Absolutely. And that lets you. Then the amazing thing about a lot of these biases and brain tricks is once you know that they are there, you see other people doing them. It's kind of like the Matrix or whatnot. Right. To where I can see somebody in the way they respond, in the ruffled feathers or whatever it is to see, okay, this is a confirmation bias thing. And maybe you've gotten to a point where, you know, they've backed themselves into a corner and feel like they don't have options, and so they're just going to be fighting, fighting, fighting against whatever it is. And like you said that, well, that's preposterous. Or people that interrupt before you've even finished what it is that you have to say, because they know that there's no way you're going to be listening to them and they're seeing things that are confirming that perspective, that they think you're going to be doing something difficult, that you're problematic. And so if instead you think, what is it that I could do or say right now to help them to see that that's not the case. And I know that, you know, for me, ideally, when you have a little bit more time and to say that is this exact moment when I need to resolve absolutely everything in this conversation, or what's the small win I can get today so that over time, we're going to get to where we need to be when you're going in trying to get absolutely everything. And it's an all or nothing. It never really works out that well in negotiation. I think you're the expert. But if you're able to go in and say, you know, right now, the best. Best thing I could do is help to shift their confirmation bias a little bit to show that I'm willing to listen, I can tell they don't think I am someone who's going to listen to them. So when they say it's preposterous, and instead of fighting back, if you say, I didn't realize that you felt that way, can you share a little bit with me about what is upsetting you, what you think I'm saying that's wrong. Can you educate me on the problem here? You know, giving them opportunity to defend whatever that point is, or to speak and just calmly listen and not have a reaction, you know, maybe can help to show that you aren't just out to be whatever it is that they're seeing.

Right. And. Yeah, and let's stay on this when we're talking about confirmation bias in other people, because I think that's really what people want to get into. It's like, okay, Kwame, yeah, I might have it, but I know they do help me through that. And so you're. You're right. Sometimes you recognize, whoa, there's some confirmation bias here. There's a high level of emotionality. Now might not be the time. And sometimes slowing it down, breaking it into multiple conversations is the best thing to do for the sake of the relationship and for the sake of your objectives. And then something else that I found helpful is when we're having the conversation, and I recognize there's just no flexibility. They're not even acknowledging any validity or legitimacy to anything that I've said. I would say something like, well, it really doesn't seem as though anything that I can say will adjust your position. No matter what evidence I put forward, you're not going to adjust. Is that a fair synopsis? And there's. I forget which book it was, but the author said it's a tactic called be extreme or come to me. Those are the options. And if you. If the person says, yes, in spite of the evidence you provide, I will not address my position. Nobody's really going to say that. I did this earlier this week, too, and they said, no, no, no, there's. I'm still willing to hear. And it helps them to realize, oh, that's how I'm coming off. Maybe I should listen. Another thing that I've done in the past was asking the other side to explain my point back to me, right? And so I say, you know what, maybe I'm not explaining myself very well. What are you understanding me to say, how are you understanding that point? And then they do a horrible job of explaining it, say, sorry, I did a poor job, you mind if I try again? And then they listen and they're more willing to adjust.

Absolutely. And so this is something that gets into framing, which is a hugely important piece of behavioral sciences, and being able to understand that the way you say something often matters much more than whatever it is that you are actually saying. And for me personally, one of my least favorite phrases that most of the world uses, and I think it's a hot button for a lot of people, is when people say, does that make sense? Or do you understand what I'm saying? To which yes, you know, everybody's gonna have the reaction of, well, I'm not an idiot, so of course I get it. Right. That's what your brain goes to when someone says that to you. And it's just going to be ruffling people's feathers, even if they can't consciously say that that's bothering them. So instead, if you're eight, what I try to say, and it sounds like you do something similar, is, did I explain that? Well, did. Are there further questions? Did I explain myself properly versus does that make sense? And people make that face when they say it too, right? And so that sense makes frame just doesn't serve well. And similarly, just any way that it can feel very aggressive, even if you're saying the right things. And so being able to communicate in that open curious and compassion. I really love the phrasing on your framework because I wish I had come up with it myself. But to where I mean, it just. But it is perfectly explained, right? To where if someone can tell that you are genuinely interested in hearing what they have to say, then you're able to kind of help, just slightly open them up a little bit and it can change the entire conversation. The piece you were talking about of getting someone to agree that it's not that they're going to contest everything that you say, that's also using a tactic of pre commitment and wanting to be consistent with something that you've said before. So if you can get someone to admit to say, no, no, I'm willing to listen, they're more likely to be willing to listen if they say that they're willing to listen. So silly. But again, that's confirmation bias in and of itself, right? Because I've said I'm willing to listen. So now I'm looking for opportunities to prove that I'm willing to listen.

Exactly. And, and so, listeners, now you see why the psychology is so important. It's incredibly important because if you understand the psychology, then you can create strategies and tactics off the fly. If there's not a specific negotiation strategy that applies in this situation, you could say, okay, I see. This is an issue of confirmation bias. Okay, this is how I can break through that. And so your strategy might adjust as a result of that. One of the things that I've done in the past to kind of get them to adjust a really firm stance is get them to engage in a hypothetical. Because most times people are hesitant to wrestle with reality because they feel like it might be a concession. But I say, hey, let's pretend we're in a magic world here. All right? Hypothetically, if you were to see things from a different perspective, let's say, just to make it super simple, let's say you are saying something is true. They are saying something is not true. Okay, hypothetically, if this was true, what evidence would you need to see in order to believe that it's true? And it's incredible to see how people struggle with that question because their brain never allowed them to consider that possibility.

Yes, absolutely. And that's the point. When you do, even just having the moment to go, you know, I don't know. I don't know what would make this proven for me is such an important learning in and of itself to again, make them more open to be looking for other things. And then you can change the conversation to be talking about that, you know, what are the most important aspects that could prove this to be real to you? And it just opens up the conversation in a different way, and you can find out what they're really fighting you on. It's. As you know, it's very often there's something else going on kind of behind the scenes. I'm really fighting on this point, but actually, you know, three steps back in my brain, there's something else that I have issue with but can't quite articulate or don't want you to know about. And, you know, being transparent as well, of showing some of your cards, you know, can help to say, you know, I've had issues with in the past. I used to feel this way, but then I found this piece of evidence, you know, that can help to show how you maybe overcome some of your own confirmation bias. I will say pretty much across the board is never a good thing. To tell someone that they're exhibiting confirmation bias, to say, well, you know, you're doing this right now.

Yeah, they don't like that.

No. So it is a tricky way of making sure that you are to help them to see it without raising more flags that are going to make them completely shut down. Because again, when they are really hyper on edge, you know, really aware of what's going on and ready for battle, the smallest thing could set them off because again, they're looking for things that are going to confirm that you're difficult to talk to and you're never willing to give an inch or, you know, whatever that happens to, to be. So I think in those situations, asking those open ended questions that are going to help their brain to shake out of its confirmation of what it's looking for and making it think differently and questions are a great way to do that can help them to either find for themselves what the real issue is or where there might be some wiggle room or even if they don't see it when they're having the response, you might be able to pick up on those points that you can then keep in mind as the negotiation goes on.

Fantastic, Melina. This was so much fun.

Yeah.

Thank you for coming on the show. But before you go, let the listeners know how they can keep in touch with you and some of your resources that you have.

Absolutely. So the Brainy Business podcast you can find anywhere that you listen to podcasts and you can also go to the Brainy Business and information on the podcast is there as well as lots and lots of free resources and things that I'm making all of the time. You can also find me on all the socials as the Brainy Biz B I Z.

Fantastic. Thanks again for coming on the show. We really appreciate it.

Absolutely. Thanks for having me.

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