A short transcript excerpt of a YouTube discussion by Matt Wolfe debating whether AI progress follows an exponential curve. Wolfe summarizes an argument that model improvements (e.g., GPT2→GPT3 vs. GPT4→GPT5) do not show consistent exponential leaps, and counters that unseen internal advances at organizations like OpenAI could exist even if not publicly evident; he doubts that AGI exists internally.
We're not seeing that same leap from GPT4 to GPT or the same leap from GPT2 that we saw the GPT3. He's sort of arguing that that exponential curve that everybody's talking about that we're on with AI is not true. Right. We're not on this exponential curve. Otherwise, like, why didn't we get from GPT4 to GPT5 and half the time we got from GPT2 to GPT3, right? Like, why is it, why is it not showing that? But I also, like, I think my counter argument to that is just because we're not seeing it doesn't mean it's not there. Yeah, totally. I think there's a lot of stuff happening, like Nathan sort of alluding to behind the scenes over at OpenAI that we're not seeing. I think that they probably have these models that are really, really strong. I don't think they have AGI internally yet.
AI News: Dots, GPT-6.1 Sol, Sonnet 5.5, Gemini 4, and everything you need to know
