Tom Bilyeu argues AI will widen economic inequality, which historically drives political violence. He cites data showing only 2% of countries with debt-to-GDP around 130% avoided civil war or revolution, and pegs the U.S. current ratio at 121-122%, putting the odds of American civil war at roughly 50%.
AI is going to exacerbate the inequality. The inequality is what's driving the political division. The political division will lead to more violence. Do I think that we'll go into a full hot civil war? I hope not. But for reasons that I'm more than happy to go into, the math says that we have about a 50% chance of ending up in civil war. Only 2% of countries that have found themselves with a debt to GDP ratio of 130% have avoided revolution or civil war. We're at 121 or 122% right now. Now, but because they don't understand how it could be possible that debt is the thing that leads to massive inequality, that it's the thing that leads to the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer. It's just complicated enough that people tend to glaze over and they just go back into emotional reasoning and they're like, yeah, but that guy, he voted for somebody else and I'm not here for it. And then they just fight. It's crazy.
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