What Donald Trump Means for AI in 2025

I think a lot of people have this misconception right now. For anybody to think that like we've hit the end of the road with AI is delusional. I don't know the right word, but like, we're closer to the, like the, the 1 yard line than we are to the 99 yard line.

We're like at the beginning of an exponential curve. We're not, we're not plateauing. We're literally like, like right here.

We've seen the most insane advancements in technology like the world has ever seen in human history. And we're going to get to witness AGI and most likely ASI in our LifeT like that to me is mind blowing.

Hey, welcome to the Next Wave podcast. I'm Matt Wolf. I'm here with Nathan Lands, and today we're talking about some really important topics. The world has recently changed. We just had an election here in the US And Donald Trump was elected. And we're going to spend a big chunk of this episode talking about what that actually means for the world of AI. We're also going to talk about how there's been a major shift in the way Silicon Valley's optimism has been towards TEC and AI. And we're going to give you some of the predictions that we have of where AI is going in 2025. You're not going to want to miss this one. So let's just jump straight in.

Being a know it all used to be considered a bad thing, but in business it's everything. Because right now most businesses only use 20% of their data. Unless you have HubSpot, where data that's buried in emails, call logs and meeting notes become insights that help you grow your business. Because when you know more, you grow more. Visit HubSpot.com to learn more.

Let's just go ahead and get into it. I know, Nathan, you've had a lot on your mind about this stuff. Where do you think is a good starting point for this?

Yeah, I mean, maybe give you a little bit of disclaimer like, you know, this is not going to become a political podcast. And I understand this whole topic is quite controversial because some people love Trump, some people hate him, absolutely hate him. But I think it's going to be kind of hard to avoid this topic because moving forward, obviously Trump and Elon Musk are going to be pivotal in a lot of the changes that are going to happen with AI and technology. So it's going to be impossible not to discuss the stuff that they're doing. And Something I've noticed is, you know, I kind of, you know, confided to you recently. You know, I'm kind of a ex liberal, lived in San Francisco for 13 years, fell out of love with a lot of the left wing policies because of the stuff I saw there. And I have noticed that, like, even with a lot of my left wing friends in Silicon Valley right now, there's a major vibe shift happening. Like, like, even my left wing friends are like, admitting, like, oh, yeah, the mood has dramatically changed. It's went from being very pessimistic and scared of the government to thinking like, holy crap. It was always a talk in Silicon Valley, like, why do we not have any smart people in the government? Why is that? Like, why don't we actually get to Silicon Valley? Like, some of the smartest people involved in the government? It's like, well, that is now happening, right?

Well, are we sending our dumbest people to the government or is it the smartest people don't want to work for the government?

Yeah, exactly. But it's like, now there's this moment where it's like, okay, like Elon Musk, it's like, well, even people don't like his politics. It's hard to argue that he's not intelligent. Like, you can't build those kind of companies that he has without being incredibly smart. And then you've got Vivek, who's also highly intelligent guy, and you got J.D. vance, who used to be a venture capitalist, right? So you've got people who actually understand technology, highly involved in the government now. And the big thing they just announced is, you know, doge, which I guess you didn't know. Like, a lot of people don't realize, like, it's not just the, the meme coin, it's like it's a Department of Government Efficiency is what this stands for. And it actually started out as a joke on X. Like somebody tweeted like, oh, you should create the Department of Government Efficiency and call it doge. And it literally started from a joke and now it's a real thing. And this is actually why a lot of people are excited. Like, you know, because it's obvious, like anyone who's interacted with the government, like, realizes, you know, it's almost like when you go to the hospital where like they charge you a thousand dollars for like a straw and stuff like this, right? Like, the government is full of this kind of stuff where people are just like throwing away money because it's not theirs. It's attack players money. And I think a lot of that on both sides is happening. So people are excited because the idea is they're going to look through, you know, how the government's spending money. And I predicted on X yesterday that Elon Musk would probably be important for this because people on both sides, including Republicans, are going to hate this because, you know, you don't want to. For people to know how much money is wasted. And it's important for Elon Musk to be involved because he can make that transparent. And then it's going to be hard for anyone to hide from that. Right. Like, if you make it transparent on X show where the money's being spent, what can they do about that? And so Elon Musk announced yesterday, like, yeah, that is what he's doing. He's going to make a public leaderboard where he's going to show where the money's being spent, and then they're just going to cut it out. And then Vivek, he shared something earlier because people are saying, like, oh, they're not going to have any power to do any of this. It's all just talk. And Vivek's, like, shared all these, like, Supreme Court cases that seem to say otherwise seem to say that there's, like, going to be legal precedent that, like, the government agencies have already overstepped their bounds. There's Supreme Court rulings that seem like you could cut a lot of the agencies down. And so I think that's what he's going to try to do. He's going to try to do, like, you know, with, like, Twitter, where, you know, he cut Twitter down by 80%. Sure, there were some problems along the way. Of course there's problems when you change things like that. But overall, the company's doing way better now, and it has, like, 80% less people. And so he's convinced with the government, you're going to be able to do the same kind of thing. The current plan, from my understanding, is that he's going to give people two years severance pay. So they're talking about possibly reducing the size of the government by, like, anywhere from 30 to 80% and giving everyone two years severance pay. And then, hey, you should go, you know, work in some new job in AI or tech or whatever. Find a new job. Right. And so instead of spending all that money, if you could actually invest that money into the US and making sure the US Is number one, that could change everything. I think that people are not realizing that, like, all that money is being wasted. If you reinvested it in new things in America that you could really change the country, you know, and, and I shared a tweet on X or post or whatever they call it. Maybe like a month ago they got like 47 million views talking about how I went from Japan to America and saw the problems in America, right? Like, yeah, America is the best country in some ways, but there's a lot of things that don't work well, like in compared to Japan. Like you go to America and things just don't work right. And it feels like a lot of that is because we waste money on all these stupid things where we could be investing that money into infrastructure and new technology. And so that's why I'm personally excited because I think this could possibly be like a golden age for America where like we actually started investing in the country again. And they also proposed building 10 new cities in America, since Elon Musk is going to be involved in that. Ten new cities that are going to be obviously infused with like AI. It's going to be, you're going to have like robot cars, you're going to have, you know, trip flying cars. I don't know if I actually like the idea of flying cars, honestly, but you're going to have like 10 new cities that are going to be built from the ground up with AI and technology in mind. So just imagine instead of wasting $2 trillion on stuff that probably doesn't matter, just like people who are just doing paperwork all day that actually typically slows down companies. Instead of that, you put that 2 trillion a year into building 10 new AI powered cities. Like America would look dramatically different. And so I think people who understand that, that's why there's a vibe shift. And I'm happy to see that even like moderate left wing people are like, I don't like Trump, but the idea of DOGE is amazing. Excited for it.

So, yeah, no, that's, that's really interesting. I think you dropped like four, five or six different things there that I'll be like sort of talking points that we can go down the rabbit hole on. But yeah, I mean, I keep on seeing this DOGE thing on X and every time I saw it, like I almost sort of skimped past it because I thought it was talking about the crypto thing. And you know, I'm like somewhat interested in crypto. I hold some bitcoin and stuff this, you know, which by the way is another whole story there with bitcoin exploding. But you know, I hold a little bit of crypto But I don't do the Doge thing and never really been into the meme coin thing. So every time I see Doge, I just sort of scroll past it thinking, oh, this is just another thread of somebody talking about crypto. So it's, you know, not something that's really on my radar, but now that I know that it's actually referring to the Department of Government Efficiency. Yeah, yeah, now that I know that, I'm going to actually start paying a little bit more attention to it.

Yeah, I think it's kind of. Yeah. So maybe that's distracting than the name, but also, I think it probably got more attention to it. Right. Because, like, obviously people in the media are, like, super upset. Like, this is ridiculous. He's, like, called it Doge. And, like, there's, like, an official Doge.

You know, we've already got a Dogecoin, which is apparently unrelated completely. Maybe they'll tie together. Who knows?

Yeah, who knows? I mean, you know, Doge has always been a meme. Right. Like, I hung out with Jackson Palmer when he moved from Australia to San Francisco back in the day, when he first started dogecoin as a joke. Yeah. Really fun guy, but, yeah, the whole thing was a joke, and now it's become a, you know, a whole thing.

Yeah. Yeah. I really like the sort of leaderboard idea. I can't visualize it. I have no idea what something like that would look like, but I really like that level of transparency where, like, anybody can go and be like, wait, we're putting this much money towards this thing? Like, why? This leaderboard is out of skew. We need to. We need to adjust this a bit.

I love the idea. Like, I tweeted, I think, like, a year ago, like, one of my big predictions was that in the next year or two, we would see AI start to have an impact on government spending. You know, this might be controversial, but, you know, my belief is that Democrats and Republicans both. There's a lot of corruption, in my opinion. I think there's a lot of people overpaying their friends, companies, and then later on, they get favors and things like this. And I think that there's so much complexity that it's hard for the average person to understand that or see it. And I'm pretty convinced that once you start applying AI to looking at all the government spending data, there's going to be some things that kind of pop out, like, oh, why are we paying a million dollars for this? You know, for, you know, whatever. Like, for that kind of shovel or whatever. Thing it is, you know, like, I think there's so many examples like this of, like, it's dramatically overpaying for things. And so I. I'm excited. I think in probably 12 years, we'll be looking at AI or maybe in less than 12 years, like, AI will be, like, almost like part of the government, where it's like, showing us, like, here's how this money spend, we can spend it more efficiently. It's going to all be about how you can spend more efficiently, more intelligently, versus what I think is happening right now. Like, a lot of people just overpaying their friends and things like that.

One thing I do want to dive into a little bit is. So you've already sort of broken down a whole bunch of potential implications of, like, the new administration coming in. Right. There are a few other things I know that, like, Trump basically said that on day one. Whether this actually happens on day one or not, I feel like politicians saying, I'm going to do this on day one is sort of like a talking point. It's sort of like high schoolers running for president saying, I'm going to make all the vending machines free. Like, whenever I hear day one, that's kind of how I feel about it, is they're just saying stuff people want to hear. But he did say that on day one, he wants to repeal Biden's AI executive order, which essentially Biden's executive order, like, created a new form of government to sort of look at AI. And also there was something in there that said that pretty much any foundation model had to be seen by the government and approved by the government before it can sort of get released into the wild. Those were, like, kind of the two main things of the executive order.

Yeah.

Government approval first and also, like, a government body to sort of keep track of AI. And Trump said, I'm going to repeal that right away. We want companies to be able to move as fast as possible when it comes to this stuff. They shouldn't need to, like, run it by their parents first. Right. That's one of the big implications. Also, we got J.D. vance, which you mentioned he was a venture capitalist. But one of the things that he's been fairly outspoken about is open source. He actually has made a lot of statements in the past about how he's worried that regulation for AI within the government is going to sort of strongly favor the existing incumbents and make it really, really difficult for new players to get in.

Right.

Because what ends up happening is you get these big, massive companies, the Googles, the metas, the Microsoft companies like this that have more money than God and they can lobby the politicians to get the regulations to sort of go in their favor. And a lot of times those regulations go in these big incumbents favors, but the open source, the smaller companies that are just trying to get going, they severely hinder those companies progress. And that's something that J.D. vance, the, you know, Vice President elect, essentially said he's worried about with AI regulation. We need to make sure that whatever sort of things we do, whatever sort of moves the government makes, they help, you know, both sides. Right. It's not just completely favoring the massive incumbent companies. So those are a few of like the implications that we've heard already. Another thing is that Trump basically said he wants to make us first in AI. Right. You know, he sees it as a competition with China and, and I'm sure there's some other countries in the mix, but for the most part when you talk about AI, you're usually talking about the US and China are the two that seem to be like racing each other the most.

Yeah, man. I think that the concerns J.D. vance has shared, like, actually are really similar to mine, like in terms of in the future, AI is going to be the main intelligence on planet Earth. So it's very dangerous for that to be one company owning that, because then that's one company that owns intelligence, one company that owns all sources of like, what is the truth. Right, right. Obviously that's dangerous for one company to own. So a lot of his concerns are around that. And so that's why he's a big proponent of open source, which is exactly the same as me. Like, I think we can't have just one company owning intelligence. That's like, obviously a very bad idea for humanity. But at the same time, he does seem to be very practical of like you mentioned being concerned about China and realizing we are in a new arms race with China.

Right.

This is like building the nuclear bomb or building the Internet or whatever, like in new technologies. America has stayed ahead because we were the number one in those areas with AI and robotics. Now we have to be number one. And it looks like right now we're ahead in AI and China's ahead in robotics. Right?

That's concerning. It's good that we're ahead in AI though, because that should help us get ahead in robotics in the future. But currently that's not how it's playing out. Currently China seems to be heading at robotics and so I'm pretty sure that they'll Be practical. They're not going to be like, hey, everything has to be open source. I think they're going to be very supportive of being OpenAI and all these other different companies. I don't think it's going to be all about XAI or whatever. I don't think they're going to just favor Elon Musk. And so I think they'll have a practical approach where it's like, okay, there'll be some regulation around AI, but definitely not highly restrictive because I do not want to slow down American companies in terms of competing with China.

Yeah, yeah, that's the impression I get. I tend to sort of avoid politics. I don't really identify as a Republican or a Democrat. Like, never in my life have I identified with, like, either party. I've always sort of identified with, I'm an entrepreneur, I take care of myself. No government entity, no one person Getting elected is going to dramatically change my life. It's up to me to change my life and get to where I want to get. And so I've always kind of had, like, that sort of perspective on politics. But saying all of that. The comment that I was about to make is that it does seem like, as far as, like, AI progress goes, I'm not going to speak to the character of the candidates or anything like that. But as far as, like, which candidate is going to help us get ahead in AI faster and get further with it, I think the outcome of that election is going to get us further in AI. Right. That's kind of how I feel about that. There's, you know, other things that I do like, other things that I don't like about, you know, both candidates that we're running. But we don't need to get into any of that. Let's sort of like shift the topic slightly here because Gary Tan just interviewed Sam Altman, and during that interview with Sam Altman, one of the questions he asked him is, what are you most excited about for 2025? And Sam Altman's response was AGI. I think that'll be pretty cool, right? Like, I think that was his words exactly. So that's basically Sam Altman implying that AGI is coming in 2025. What's interesting about that is there's also been articles that recently came out from the Information and from Bloomberg and then pretty much all the other news outlets sort of covered what these two original news sources covered, which is that they are both claiming that AI has slowed way down. So to hear Sam Altman go and talk to Gary Tan on the Y Combinator podcast and say, we're going to have AGI in 2025. And then seeing all these other news outlets saying, we're hitting this AI winter and progress is slowing way down. Those two things seem to be at odds with each other a little bit.

Yeah. I mean, like, from talking to friends in Silicon Valley, like, everyone's very optimistic. And so. And in general, Silicon Valley does have, like, insider information. Like, YC is the biggest network in Silicon Valley. Sam Allman used to run yc, former yc, you know, alum. And so they typically know about things going on in OpenAI before others do, and everyone's very optimistic. So that tells me that I would trust what Sam is saying about AI over other people, quite honestly, because we talked about this before, like when we were out in Boston talking about how reasoning models like, oh, one, it's a big deal, the fact that you can now, even without more data, you can still scale AI just by throwing more compute at it. Instead of it being based on the data, it's based on what it's actually thinking about, what you say to it. And recently, people inside of OpenAI have started sharing comments on this, like, hey, yeah, people have not properly updated their thoughts on where AI is heading based on what O1 means. Because when people try to explain O1 as well, people are like, oh, it's just like a chain of thought. And that's all it is. It's basically what people were doing before. People at OpenAI have said, like, no, that's like, kind of like what inspired it. But there's more obviously going on behind the scenes. It's not just chain of thought. And so what surprised them is it. It seems to reflect almost like an internal monologue the AI has now. And they said some of the internal monologue that they see has been kind of shocking.

And I've been hearing rumors too. Like, by the time this episode is out, yeah, we might have 01 full version. Right. Right now we've got OpenAI 0101 preview. OpenAI 01 preview.

Right.

So we haven't even seen the OpenAI 01 model yet. What we've seen is sort of like a not fully trained version. It's almost like a checkpoint version of what the full 01 was going to be. And there's been a lot of rumors circulating over on X and various news websites that claim that in November we're going to see the full version of 01. So within the next couple weeks, we're likely to see the next version of 01. And it's probably going to blow some people's minds. You know, we also had Dario Amadai. I'm not sure if I pronounced his name right. He's the CEO of Anthropic. He went on the Lex Friedman podcast. Lex, the same question. When do you think we're going to get AGI? He basically said, I believe it's going to be in, you know, 2026 or 2027, but probably not sooner than that. And then you have Sam Altman saying he believes it's going to be 2025. But I think a big thing that's going on here and the information article, and then Bloomberg covered it where they said things are really slowing down. What we're seeing happen is that the training side is slowing down, but what they're able to do on the inference side is getting better and better and better. And I think that's what you were just kind of saying there with the, like, reasoning model, with. Oh, one. So, yes, we're sort of running out of data to train these AI models on. Right. Like, once you've scraped the whole Internet and trade it into an AI model, like, what are you scraping from beyond that? It's either got to be synthetic data, or you're just scraping the same thing over and over again.

Yeah. And I think where people are probably getting confused, too, is like, they saw 01 preview and they're like, oh, it's kind of slow and it's not better in a lot of ways. But they're not realizing, like, this is a new, you know, kind of overusing the word. But it's a new paradigm. Right. It's a new way to build AI. And so of course, the first version is not that great, but it's a.

Matter of GPT1 version. Right. They started the whole naming convention over that.

That's why. Right. And then people at OpenAI have, like, commented recently, like, they're not paying attention to how the trajectory is going to change. Like the trajectory of AI, how fast things improve. That's what matters. And with these new models, if you don't have to worry about, like, you just trained an entirely new model and you got all this new data and there's all these different products. You know, it's a. Like a what? It's like a nine months or a year, like they said, like, for some of the models, how long it took to train everything and test it. If you're not waiting on that, instead every single day you're throwing more compute at this model and improving it every single day. That's probably where we're at or heading. And so that's going to be really different than, oh, yeah, we get to upgrade every nine months. We're probably going to be like, oh, we get to upgrade every week. And improvements may, like, speed up. And so that's what people are not thinking about. Like, we're probably moving from a world of, like, updating every nine months, like, updating every week. And that's going to change things.

Yeah, eventually updating every day and then eventually updating in real time. Most likely. Like, I think a lot of people have this misconception right now that a lot of these AI models, when you're sitting there having a conversation with it, it's actually learning and, like, training on the conversation. But that's not how it works, Right? Like, that's why when you see a new model of GPT, it says, like, trained through, you know, June 2023, or, you know, this model was updated in August of 2024 or whatever. And, like, I have conversations with people sort of outside of the AI sphere all the time, right. Whenever I'm, you know, hanging out with friends or family that don't know much about AI, but they know what I do for a living, they always want to ask me about it. Right? And the conception that most people have is that if I go and have a conversation with Chat GPT, it's instantly getting smarter and smarter and smarter. And if I corrected on things, the correction that I gave it is now going into the training. That's not how it works, Right. They're getting updated and there's like, new training runs all the time. But the conversations you're having with it aren't actually updating the model, saying that I think that's eventually where it's going to get to. I think it is going to get to a point where in real time, the models are sort of getting smarter and smarter and smarter based on the conversations they're having. And no, like, one person is going to be able to totally screw over the model by giving it a whole bunch of fake information and then assuming it's going to get trained into the model, because I would imagine it's going to have some sort of system where it's looking at all of the information in aggregate. And when a certain specific information is fed multiple times over and over again, that's the information that's going to get updated and fixed. But if somebody is going in there saying, here's how many rocks you should eat on a daily basis. Not necessarily going to update with that information. It's sort of going to look at the aggregate of everybody communicating with it. That's where I think it's going to get. I posted something on Twitter the other day about how like it feels like there's been less exciting things in AI lately. And somebody put a comment on there saying, what you're failing to realize is that the big monumental shift that AI was going to generate has already happened and there's no more progress from here. And my response to that was just false, right? Because like I could literally go on and on and on about like all of the stuff that's coming. I mean, like, I've even got like NDAs with companies that have shown me some stuff that I think are going to blow people's minds, right? But like, I know what's coming like intuitively and even seen some of it. And I'm like, for anybody to think that like we've hit the end of the road with AI is delusional. I don't know the right word. But like we're not at the end. I mean like, we're just starting to touch what like world models can do. Like, you know, modeling all of the world and environment and having that information inside of the AI as well so that it works better with like embodied AIs and things like that. Like, we're closer to the beginning, we're closer to the, like the, the 1 yard line than we are to the 99 yard line.

Humans have a hard time extrapolating out. Like, you know, you see progress and then imagine what's going to happen after, you know, that technology built on, on it. And after two or three years how things are going to change. People have a hard time like, like imagining those things. And now I remember when GPT 1 and 2 came out, like my friends in San Francisco, like a lot of them were like XYZ people, right? And in our private group chats, they were sharing results from GPT 1 and 2. And like this changes everything. And I was like, maybe they're more intelligent than me. I feel like they got it like slightly faster than I did. But like, once I, like, I got it, I was like, oh yeah, that does, like AI actually works now. Like, even though it's not great yet, this is the beginning of it. And so those same people who recognize that, they're more optimistic than ever before right now. And so I trust those people over the people who probably at that time they were like, oh, AI is Nothing or chatgpt is not good. They didn't understand that kind of stuff was coming. Like, the people in the know, they've known for a while. You know, even my previous startup binded, we did computer vision stuff and there was breakthroughs happening in AI then before LLMs even. Right. Especially on the computer vision side. Like, there was dramatic changes happening where you could start recognizing the elements of images and stuff. And so, like, AI has been improving for a long time now. And before that, you know, machine learning applied to, like, recommendation engines for Amazon and YouTube. Like, AI has been in a long path and a lot of people don't realize that, that this hasn't happened overnight. Yeah, right. And then, yeah, like you said, we're like at the beginning of an exponential curve. We're not plateauing. We're literally like right here and about to go up. So.

Exactly. Now, when it comes to the topic of AGI, though, I think the thing that I struggle with the most around that conversation, right. You got Sam Altman saying 2025. You got Dario from Anthropic saying 26 or 27, if not later than that. The problem I have, how do we know when we've hit AGI? Because I feel like maybe Sam and Dario could have different definitions of it, and Sam might actually think we hit it in 2025, but he didn't hit Dario's definition of it. And I know Google has their whole, like Google or open AI, or maybe they both have it, but they have like, these levels of, like, various AGI. Right. Nobody really knows where the goal post is right now. And I think Sam might have this idea of this is what AGI is to me, and I think we'll hit it in 2025. While other people's definition of AGI might be different than Sam's, and when Sam thinks we hit AGI, other people in the space will be like, yeah, but that's just Sam's version of AGI. It's not really AGI yet.

Yeah, maybe we should segue into, like, some 2025 predictions around all this. But, you know, one thing that's interesting is, I'm not sure if you remember this, but apparently OpenAI's deal with Microsoft has all these things saying that when they hit AGI, is the deal off or, like, the ownership's off? Like. Like something changes.

Like, it's like the structure changes. I think they still work together, but the structure dramatically changes somehow.

Yeah, yeah. In OpenAI's favor. Right? Like. Like Microsoft has way less. The company once that happens. And so it might be in their benefit to say they've hit AGI. My understanding of, like, AGI is. And everyone has a different definition for this, but, like, as soon as it can do the work of, like, a typical person, not, like the most genius person in the world, but, like an average, you know, person who, like, sits at your desk and does emails and stuff like that, like an admin or something. For me, as soon as it does some kind of work like that, that's like basic AGI.

Yeah. So Dario, actually, I think, described how he saw it on his episode with Lex. I don't have the exact quote in front of me right now, but essentially he said, when sort of every topic, AI is able to understand it at, like, a PhD level. Right. So it almost sounds like maybe your definition and maybe Sam's definition might be. It could do anything a human can do. But it sounded like Dario's definition is, like, it could do anything that the smartest human at a specific task can do.

Yeah, yeah, that's. That's a. You know, arguing over the definition. So that's. And that's going to continue to happen.

That's where. That's where I sort of get, like, with Sam saying 2025 and Daria saying 26 or 27, and everybody having these different definitions, it's like, I feel like you have to have some sort of, like, okay, this is how we know we've hit it. Otherwise, this debate's going to rage on forever.

Yeah, yeah. Your robots are ruling the entire world. Are like, have we hit AGI yet?

You know, while we sit back in, the robot serves us and everything, you know, going to be like that. I think. I think in 2025, we're going to get AI agents that actually work. They actually go off and do work for you. And the fact that these things also have an internal monologue going on, I mean, for me, that's AGI. Like, it passes the Turing test. If you didn't know about ChatGPT, you could chat with it and think you were talking to a human. You could. Internal monologue. It can go off and do work for you. I'm convinced all these things are going to be there 2025. I mean, two of them already are there. And so for me, that's AGI. Yeah, I think AGI 2025. And then. And the interesting thing, too, is Sam Altman said artificial superintelligence in the next thousand days or so. You know, so that's possibly artificial superintelligence within three to five years. Artificial superintelligence is basically AI beyond humans understanding, beyond anything the smartest human in the world could possibly do. You know, make Einstein look dumb. Right.

I don't know. I feel like once you hit AGI, ASI is not too far afterwards, right? Because so if I'm basing it off of like Dario's definition, right? And if Dario's definition is like an AI that knows every topic as well as the smartest person on that topic, right? If we see AGI is like that, well, then wouldn't that mean that AGI would be smart enough to figure out how to develop an asi, Right? Like, if it is like the smartest coder in the world, the smartest engineer in the world, you know, the smartest writer in the world. All of this, like, bucket of things that you would need to create ASI if it was the smartest at every one of those things in the world. It doesn't seem too much of a stretch. That AGI, as soon as we hit that asi, comes pretty damn quickly after that.

Yeah, I mean, that's where like three years makes sense to me. Like, if you keep adding 10 to 20 IQ points to the thing every year, you get smarter than any human very quickly, right?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, like right now, is there any AI that can solve math problems that no human has managed to solve yet?

No, but what is interesting is like, like I said in like one of our last episodes, like, scientists are already using this stuff now, though, and saying, like, it replaced it. So it's not replacing the smartest human, but it's already replacing, like smart graduates.

Yeah, well, I mean, Alpha fold, right? The Alpha Fold 3, they just open sourced Alpha Fold 3, so anybody could go use it. But that's like, you know, figuring out new ways to fold proteins and stuff that are novel way that humans haven't figured out yet. So if AI is figuring out these new novel things that no human has figured out yet, once we get to AGI, I just don't see how ASI is not, like, fairly soon after. Yeah, I'm beating that dead horse now.

Yeah, but you bring up AlphaFold, I mean, that. That's even another reason why I'm super optimistic about the Trump administration coming in. Because people don't realize, like, we're in like the craziest time in human history. It's like, I don't believe in the assimilation theory. But if you did, I understand why. Because we are alive in the most interesting possible time in humanity, right? Like, we are at the birth of artificial general intelligence. We are almost the birth of, like a new entity or a new kind of being. And the next four years, all of these things are going to combine, right? Like, you know, AI robotics will be applying it to solving cancer and all these different things. And so in that area, you do want to be moving as quickly as possible. You don't want too many restrictions because we're probably like, we're totally reshaping what America is like entirely, right?

Yeah, no, it's. It's fascinating. I mean, you and I, we're roughly the same age, right? So, like, we lived in an era where we knew what it was like before Internet and after Internet. We lived in the era where we knew what it was like before everybody had a cell phone and after everybody has a cell phone. We lived in an era when we had cell phones and an era where we had smartphones. Like, we've lived in this window of time where we've seen the most insane advancements in technology, like the world has ever seen in human history. And we're going to get to witness AGI and most likely ASI in our lifetimes. Like, that, to me, is mind blowing. It.

It is, yeah. But I grew up on irc, right? Like, I grew up, like, when the Internet was, was being born, right? Like, people didn't know how to use the Internet or what it was, it was just, it was crazy. It was just all this stuff, like, tied together barely somehow and all worked somehow. And then now everyone takes the Internet for granted. It's like a part of daily life. It's part of the whole me. And then now we got people talking like, oh, is AI going to be a real thing that's important or not? It's like it's going to look the same as everyone saying, like, is the Internet going to be important or not? Yes, it's going to be important. And most likely AI is going to be way more important than the Internet even, because it's intelligence. It's not just networking, it's intelligence.

Absolutely. Yeah. Yeah, I know we're going to do, like, probably a whole, like 2025 predictions episode. I imagine we'll probably do an episode like that, like closer to New Year's or something, where we just throw out all of our predictions. But I know when it comes to AGI, I think I. I probably live somewhere between Sam Altman and Dario, like maybe 2026, maybe not by 2025. Maybe there's like some version that's like really, really close in 2025 and like OpenAI calls it an AGI, but I don't know, like, I'm always bad at those predictions too. Like every time I make a prediction like that, it always happens faster than I assume. So me saying 2026 is probably a good bet for 2025.

So I will, I'll say I'm pretty predictions. They're like, I'm great at predicting the kind of things that will actually happen. Like I've done that so many times in my career that people have been kind of like shocked. But like I'm always off on the timing. So I don't know. Like, Yeah, I think 2025, but that's based on my definition of like, look, the thing's got internal monologue. If they say that's going to keep improving the things talking to itself and like reflecting on what it's learned, I mean that's. Yeah, yeah, that's crazy. And it sounds like they're pretty confident that they're going to have agents at work, which probably means like, okay, you're going to have like basically an AI assistant that can handle your emails for you and stuff like that and like stuff schedule meetings and other things. That's probably all coming in 2025. So for me that's like, yeah, that's.

The best I can fairly confidently agree with that. 2025 is going to be the year of the agents that you just give it a prompt of what you want it to take care of for you and it's going to go and use all the tools and do all the navigating and all the research and handle that stuff for you. We've already seen glimpses of it. The glimpses we've seen are buggy, but like we can see where it's going. Microsoft just released Magentic or something like that. You got the Clyde computer use. There's been some news articles going around that ChatGPT has that capability. They just haven't rolled it out to like the consumer models yet. So like, I think pretty confidently we're going to have really solid agents in 2025. I also think the whole like digital twin, like modeling the world stuff is going to be really big in 2025. I think we're going to see the video models like Sora, where they're actually doing that whole like world modeling thing and sort of like understand environments and it's generating based on what it knows about environments versus like trying to recreate exactly what it was trained on. I'm not very good at explaining that. But like, that whole digital twin, like, world modeling thing, I think is going to only become like a bigger component of a lot of these AI models next year as well.

Yeah, yeah. I think probably 20, 27, rich people are going to have robots. You know, 20, 30, most people are going to have robots. That's like kind of generally what I.

Think I can see that. I could buy that timeline. Yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure. I mean, the biggest thing for consumers is just getting those costs down. Right. Like, you're not going to be getting people going and buying, you know, $50,000 humanoid robots to do their laundry for them.

Yeah, it's not going to first, too. They're not going to be great at it either, at first. Right. If we're like, like, I can kind of do it, but didn't fold it properly. You know, my wife's super picky about folding stuff, so she'll be like, no, no, no way.

Yeah, yeah. Well, cool. I think we covered quite a bit of ground on this episode. You know, we talked about what the current election means. We talked about the vibes in San Francisco shifting. We talked about when we might see AGI, what AGI means. A lot of ground covered. I think. I think that's probably a good place to call it a wrap on this one.

It was fun.

I think that's a good stopping point. If you tuned into this episode and you enjoyed it, we've got some amazing episodes coming up. If you like hearing our discussions about the current state of AI, you want to hear us have discussions with other leaders in the AI space and the people that are building these next AI generations. Make sure you're subscribed to the Show. Subscribe on YouTube, subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Wherever you listen to podcasts, we're probably there. We really, really appreciate you subscribing and thank you so much for tuning into this episode. We'll hopefully see you in the next one.

Sam.